Add Codex historical pace with risk forecasting and backfill + follow-ups for historical pace hardening

Sources/CodexBar/MenuBarDisplayText.swift

@@ -9,31 +9,29 @@ enum MenuBarDisplayText {
         return String(format: "%.0f%%", clamped)
     }
 
-    static func paceText(provider: UsageProvider, window: RateWindow?, now: Date = .init()) -> String? {
-        guard let window else { return nil }
-        guard let pace = UsagePaceText.weeklyPace(provider: provider, window: window, now: now) else { return nil }
+    static func paceText(pace: UsagePace?) -> String? {
+        guard let pace else { return nil }
         let deltaValue = Int(abs(pace.deltaPercent).rounded())
         let sign = pace.deltaPercent >= 0 ? "+" : "-"
         return "\(sign)\(deltaValue)%"
     }
 
     static func displayText(
         mode: MenuBarDisplayMode,
-        provider: UsageProvider,
         percentWindow: RateWindow?,
-        paceWindow: RateWindow?,
-        showUsed: Bool,
-        now: Date = .init()) -> String?
+        pace: UsagePace? = nil,
+        showUsed: Bool) -> String?
     {
         switch mode {
         case .percent:
             return self.percentText(window: percentWindow, showUsed: showUsed)
         case .pace:
-            return self.paceText(provider: provider, window: paceWindow, now: now)
+            return self.paceText(pace: pace)
         case .both:
             guard let percent = percentText(window: percentWindow, showUsed: showUsed) else { return nil }
-            guard let pace = Self.paceText(provider: provider, window: paceWindow, now: now) else { return nil }
-            return "\(percent) · \(pace)"
+            let paceText: String? = Self.paceText(pace: pace)
+            guard let paceText else { return nil }
+            return "\(percent) · \(paceText)"
         }
     }
 }

Sources/CodexBar/MenuCardView.swift

@@ -635,6 +635,7 @@ extension UsageMenuCardView.Model {
         let sourceLabel: String?
         let kiloAutoMode: Bool
         let hidePersonalInfo: Bool
+        let weeklyPace: UsagePace?
         let now: Date
 
         init(
@@ -657,6 +658,7 @@ extension UsageMenuCardView.Model {
             sourceLabel: String? = nil,
             kiloAutoMode: Bool = false,
             hidePersonalInfo: Bool,
+            weeklyPace: UsagePace? = nil,
             now: Date)
         {
             self.provider = provider
@@ -678,6 +680,7 @@ extension UsageMenuCardView.Model {
             self.sourceLabel = sourceLabel
             self.kiloAutoMode = kiloAutoMode
             self.hidePersonalInfo = hidePersonalInfo
+            self.weeklyPace = weeklyPace
             self.now = now
         }
     }
@@ -933,9 +936,9 @@ extension UsageMenuCardView.Model {
         }
         if let weekly = snapshot.secondary {
             let paceDetail = Self.weeklyPaceDetail(
-                provider: input.provider,
                 window: weekly,
                 now: input.now,
+                pace: input.weeklyPace,
                 showUsed: input.usageBarsShowUsed)
             var weeklyResetText = Self.resetText(for: weekly, style: input.resetTimeDisplayStyle, now: input.now)
             var weeklyDetailText: String? = input.provider == .zai ? zaiTimeDetail : nil
@@ -1049,12 +1052,13 @@ extension UsageMenuCardView.Model {
     }
 
     private static func weeklyPaceDetail(
-        provider: UsageProvider,
         window: RateWindow,
         now: Date,
+        pace: UsagePace?,
         showUsed: Bool) -> PaceDetail?
     {
-        guard let detail = UsagePaceText.weeklyDetail(provider: provider, window: window, now: now) else { return nil }
+        guard let pace else { return nil }
+        let detail = UsagePaceText.weeklyDetail(pace: pace, now: now)
         let expectedUsed = detail.expectedUsedPercent
         let actualUsed = window.usedPercent
         let expectedPercent = showUsed ? expectedUsed : (100 - expectedUsed)

Sources/CodexBar/MenuDescriptor.swift

@@ -166,7 +166,8 @@ struct MenuDescriptor {
                 {
                     entries.append(.text(detail, .secondary))
                 }
-                if let paceSummary = UsagePaceText.weeklySummary(provider: provider, window: weekly) {
+                if let pace = store.weeklyPace(provider: provider, window: weekly) {
+                    let paceSummary = UsagePaceText.weeklySummary(pace: pace)
                     entries.append(.text(paceSummary, .secondary))
                 }
             }

Sources/CodexBar/PreferencesProvidersPane.swift

@@ -338,6 +338,10 @@ struct ProvidersPane: View {
             tokenError = nil
         }
 
+        let now = Date()
+        let weeklyPace = snapshot?.secondary.flatMap { window in
+            self.store.weeklyPace(provider: provider, window: window, now: now)
+        }
         let input = UsageMenuCardView.Model.Input(
             provider: provider,
             metadata: metadata,
@@ -356,7 +360,8 @@ struct ProvidersPane: View {
             tokenCostUsageEnabled: self.settings.isCostUsageEffectivelyEnabled(for: provider),
             showOptionalCreditsAndExtraUsage: self.settings.showOptionalCreditsAndExtraUsage,
             hidePersonalInfo: self.settings.hidePersonalInfo,
-            now: Date())
+            weeklyPace: weeklyPace,
+            now: now)
         return UsageMenuCardView.Model.make(input)
     }
 

Sources/CodexBar/Providers/Codex/CodexProviderImplementation.swift

@@ -71,6 +71,17 @@ struct CodexProviderImplementation: ProviderImplementation {
             })
 
         return [
+            ProviderSettingsToggleDescriptor(
+                id: "codex-historical-tracking",
+                title: "Historical tracking",
+                subtitle: "Stores local Codex usage history (8 weeks) to personalize Pace predictions.",
+                binding: context.boolBinding(\.historicalTrackingEnabled),
+                statusText: nil,
+                actions: [],
+                isVisible: nil,
+                onChange: nil,
+                onAppDidBecomeActive: nil,
+                onAppearWhenEnabled: nil),
             ProviderSettingsToggleDescriptor(
                 id: "codex-openai-web-extras",
                 title: "OpenAI web extras",

Sources/CodexBar/SettingsStore+Defaults.swift

@@ -150,6 +150,14 @@ extension SettingsStore {
         }
     }
 
+    var historicalTrackingEnabled: Bool {
+        get { self.defaultsState.historicalTrackingEnabled }
+        set {
+            self.defaultsState.historicalTrackingEnabled = newValue
+            self.userDefaults.set(newValue, forKey: "historicalTrackingEnabled")
+        }
+    }
+
     var menuBarMetricPreferencesRaw: [String: String] {
         get { self.defaultsState.menuBarMetricPreferencesRaw }
         set {

Sources/CodexBar/SettingsStore+MenuObservation.swift

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ extension SettingsStore {
         _ = self.menuBarShowsBrandIconWithPercent
         _ = self.menuBarShowsHighestUsage
         _ = self.menuBarDisplayMode
+        _ = self.historicalTrackingEnabled
         _ = self.showAllTokenAccountsInMenu
         _ = self.menuBarMetricPreferencesRaw
         _ = self.costUsageEnabled

Sources/CodexBar/SettingsStore.swift

@@ -190,6 +190,7 @@ extension SettingsStore {
             forKey: "menuBarShowsBrandIconWithPercent") as? Bool ?? false
         let menuBarDisplayModeRaw = userDefaults.string(forKey: "menuBarDisplayMode")
             ?? MenuBarDisplayMode.percent.rawValue
+        let historicalTrackingEnabled = userDefaults.object(forKey: "historicalTrackingEnabled") as? Bool ?? false
         let showAllTokenAccountsInMenu = userDefaults.object(forKey: "showAllTokenAccountsInMenu") as? Bool ?? false
         let storedPreferences = userDefaults.dictionary(forKey: "menuBarMetricPreferences") as? [String: String] ?? [:]
         var resolvedPreferences = storedPreferences
@@ -238,6 +239,7 @@ extension SettingsStore {
             resetTimesShowAbsolute: resetTimesShowAbsolute,
             menuBarShowsBrandIconWithPercent: menuBarShowsBrandIconWithPercent,
             menuBarDisplayModeRaw: menuBarDisplayModeRaw,
+            historicalTrackingEnabled: historicalTrackingEnabled,
             showAllTokenAccountsInMenu: showAllTokenAccountsInMenu,
             menuBarMetricPreferencesRaw: resolvedPreferences,
             costUsageEnabled: costUsageEnabled,

Sources/CodexBar/SettingsStoreState.swift

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ struct SettingsDefaultsState: Sendable {
     var resetTimesShowAbsolute: Bool
     var menuBarShowsBrandIconWithPercent: Bool
     var menuBarDisplayModeRaw: String?
+    var historicalTrackingEnabled: Bool
     var showAllTokenAccountsInMenu: Bool
     var menuBarMetricPreferencesRaw: [String: String]
     var costUsageEnabled: Bool

Sources/CodexBar/StatusItemController+Animation.swift

@@ -442,18 +442,27 @@ extension StatusItemController {
 
     func menuBarDisplayText(for provider: UsageProvider, snapshot: UsageSnapshot?) -> String? {
         let percentWindow = self.menuBarPercentWindow(for: provider, snapshot: snapshot)
+        let mode = self.settings.menuBarDisplayMode
+        let now = Date()
+        let pace: UsagePace? = switch mode {
+        case .percent:
+            nil
+        case .pace, .both:
+            snapshot?.secondary.flatMap { window in
+                self.store.weeklyPace(provider: provider, window: window, now: now)
+            }
+        }
         let displayText = MenuBarDisplayText.displayText(
-            mode: self.settings.menuBarDisplayMode,
-            provider: provider,
+            mode: mode,
             percentWindow: percentWindow,
-            paceWindow: snapshot?.secondary,
+            pace: pace,
             showUsed: self.settings.usageBarsShowUsed)
 
         let sessionExhausted = (snapshot?.primary?.remainingPercent ?? 100) <= 0
         let weeklyExhausted = (snapshot?.secondary?.remainingPercent ?? 100) <= 0
 
         if provider == .codex,
-           self.settings.menuBarDisplayMode == .percent,
+           mode == .percent,
            !self.settings.usageBarsShowUsed,
            sessionExhausted || weeklyExhausted,
            let creditsRemaining = self.store.credits?.remaining,

Sources/CodexBar/StatusItemController+Menu.swift

@@ -1395,7 +1395,10 @@ extension StatusItemController {
 
         let sourceLabel = snapshotOverride == nil ? self.store.sourceLabel(for: target) : nil
         let kiloAutoMode = target == .kilo && self.settings.kiloUsageDataSource == .auto
-
+        let now = Date()
+        let weeklyPace = snapshot?.secondary.flatMap { window in
+            self.store.weeklyPace(provider: target, window: window, now: now)
+        }
         let input = UsageMenuCardView.Model.Input(
             provider: target,
             metadata: metadata,
@@ -1416,7 +1419,8 @@ extension StatusItemController {
             sourceLabel: sourceLabel,
             kiloAutoMode: kiloAutoMode,
             hidePersonalInfo: self.settings.hidePersonalInfo,
-            now: Date())
+            weeklyPace: weeklyPace,
+            now: now)
         return UsageMenuCardView.Model.make(input)
     }
 

Sources/CodexBar/UsagePaceText.swift

@@ -9,21 +9,18 @@ enum UsagePaceText {
         let stage: UsagePace.Stage
     }
 
-    private static let minimumExpectedPercent: Double = 3
-
-    static func weeklySummary(provider: UsageProvider, window: RateWindow, now: Date = .init()) -> String? {
-        guard let detail = weeklyDetail(provider: provider, window: window, now: now) else { return nil }
+    static func weeklySummary(pace: UsagePace, now: Date = .init()) -> String {
+        let detail = self.weeklyDetail(pace: pace, now: now)
         if let rightLabel = detail.rightLabel {
             return "Pace: \(detail.leftLabel) · \(rightLabel)"
         }
         return "Pace: \(detail.leftLabel)"
     }
 
-    static func weeklyDetail(provider: UsageProvider, window: RateWindow, now: Date = .init()) -> WeeklyDetail? {
-        guard let pace = weeklyPace(provider: provider, window: window, now: now) else { return nil }
-        return WeeklyDetail(
-            leftLabel: Self.detailLeftLabel(for: pace),
-            rightLabel: Self.detailRightLabel(for: pace, now: now),
+    static func weeklyDetail(pace: UsagePace, now: Date = .init()) -> WeeklyDetail {
+        WeeklyDetail(
+            leftLabel: self.detailLeftLabel(for: pace),
+            rightLabel: self.detailRightLabel(for: pace, now: now),
             expectedUsedPercent: pace.expectedUsedPercent,
             stage: pace.stage)
     }
@@ -41,11 +38,23 @@ enum UsagePaceText {
     }
 
     private static func detailRightLabel(for pace: UsagePace, now: Date) -> String? {
-        if pace.willLastToReset { return "Lasts until reset" }
-        guard let etaSeconds = pace.etaSeconds else { return nil }
-        let etaText = Self.durationText(seconds: etaSeconds, now: now)
-        if etaText == "now" { return "Runs out now" }
-        return "Runs out in \(etaText)"
+        let etaLabel: String?
+        if pace.willLastToReset {
+            etaLabel = "Lasts until reset"
+        } else if let etaSeconds = pace.etaSeconds {
+            let etaText = Self.durationText(seconds: etaSeconds, now: now)
+            etaLabel = etaText == "now" ? "Runs out now" : "Runs out in \(etaText)"
+        } else {
+            etaLabel = nil
+        }
+
+        guard let runOutProbability = pace.runOutProbability else { return etaLabel }
+        let roundedRisk = self.roundedRiskPercent(runOutProbability)
+        let riskLabel = "≈ \(roundedRisk)% run-out risk"
+        if let etaLabel {
+            return "\(etaLabel) · \(riskLabel)"
+        }
+        return riskLabel
     }
 
     private static func durationText(seconds: TimeInterval, now: Date) -> String {
@@ -56,11 +65,9 @@ enum UsagePaceText {
         return countdown
     }
 
-    static func weeklyPace(provider: UsageProvider, window: RateWindow, now: Date) -> UsagePace? {
-        guard provider == .codex || provider == .claude else { return nil }
-        guard window.remainingPercent > 0 else { return nil }
-        guard let pace = UsagePace.weekly(window: window, now: now, defaultWindowMinutes: 10080) else { return nil }
-        guard pace.expectedUsedPercent >= Self.minimumExpectedPercent else { return nil }
-        return pace
+    private static func roundedRiskPercent(_ probability: Double) -> Int {
+        let percent = probability.clamped(to: 0...1) * 100
+        let rounded = (percent / 5).rounded() * 5
+        return Int(rounded)
     }
 }