feat(review): replay /review:merge-risk over past unattended merges before wiring demote

Problem

/review:merge-risk (PR #12954) rates a pull request's merge risk and returns a demote flag that can only send an unattended merge to a human. No merge gate reads demote yet (owner question Q57). The earlier risk-only version was replayed once in #7024: across 11 unattended merges it demoted none and missed #6205, a CI trust-boundary change. The new rubric adds floors for exactly that class, but it has not been replayed.

Owner decisions (2026-11-03, in session)

Do not wire demote into any merge gate yet. Replay the new rubric over past unattended merges first; the wiring decision (Q57) comes back to the owner with the replay's numbers.
In the same replay, run the blind checker on the PR author's model and on a different model class, and compare.
Record each /review:merge-risk result (PR, head, area levels, demote) so it can later be joined to reverts, and let /work-items:measure-delivery report the revert rate per risk level.

Acceptance criteria

Replay /review:merge-risk over every unattended lane merge the lane telemetry records (the 11 PRs in feat(review): add a risk-only action to explain-change that can only demote an unattended merge #7024 at minimum), each at its merged head.
Per PR: the rater's and the checker's maximum level, demote, and the hindsight outcome (reverted, regressed, follow-up fix, or none), in a table on this issue.
The checker runs twice per PR, on the author's model and on a different model class; the table shows both, with agreement counts.
Counts: demotions, missed risks (hindsight says a human should have looked), false demotions.
A design for recording merge-risk results (where they are written, how long they are kept, and how /work-items:measure-delivery joins them to reverts), brought to the owner with the replay results and the Q57 recommendation. No gate change lands under this issue.

Refs feat(review): split merge-risk rating out of explain-change #12954 (adds /review:merge-risk)
Refs feat(review): add a risk-only action to explain-change that can only demote an unattended merge #7024 (the earlier replay)
Refs feat(review): risk-only explain-change action that can only demote an unattended merge to human #6943

Proposed work class: work-class: scoped
Basis: automated intake triage; the lanes App applied this class.

Size: Medium
Complexity: Medium
Uncertainty: Knowable
Flags: none
Blocked by: none

Understood: replay /review:merge-risk over past unattended lane merges (at least the 11 PRs in #7024), each at its merged head. For each PR, record the rater's and checker's maximum level, demote, and the hindsight outcome. Run the checker on the author's model and on a different model class. Report the counts of demotions, missed risks and false demotions. Then bring a design for recording results, and how /work-items:measure-delivery joins them to reverts, to the owner along with the Q57 recommendation. No gate change lands under this issue.

The done-when items are exact, and I found no cost charge: the replay runs on local sessions, not a billed service. The replay depends on #12954 merging first. The table and the Q57 recommendation need a person's review, but nothing blocks the work. I found no duplicate among the open issues.

_{Automated triage, applied by the lanes App.}

Not admitted to the issue lane: its title or stated work names a charge (retention), which needs an owner decision; Size large: the split into sub-issues at intake is pending (owner Q93). Admission takes the issue once each of those is met, when intake triages it again (.github/actions/resolve-config/admission-rules.json).

The latest triage verdict holds nothing: the issue is at status: ready.

Decision (Merge Risk session, owner away, settled by evidence): this issue names no charge. "Retention" in the first body meant how long merge-risk result records are kept in the repository; the body now says "how long they are kept". The replay runs local Claude Code sessions, which use subscription capacity, not a billed service; no Azure, GitHub runner, storage or plan change is involved. Basis: the issue body and the replay method in #7024. Size: the replay is one host run over about 11 PRs, done in one session, so no sub-issue split. The Merge Risk session runs it after #12954 merges.

No description provided.

Status. agent-ready removed and host-run added: this is a host run, not issue-lane work. status: needs-decision stays for the owner's Q93 size-split rule, per the 2026-11-04T01:36Z correction above.
Agent choice, not an owner answer.

The 2026-11-04T00:41Z comment says the replay "runs local Claude Code sessions" over about 11 PRs, done in one session by the Merge Risk session after feat(review): split merge-risk rating out of explain-change #12954 merges. The issue lane cannot run the claude CLI, so agent-ready sent it to a lane that cannot do it.
No other change; the Merge Risk session keeps it.

No description provided.

Owner decision (2026-11-05, in session, verbatim: "ok go with recommendations"). #12984 runs as one host run, without a Q93 split. Basis: intake triage rated it Size: Medium (2026-11-03T23:16Z comment above); Q93 covers Size Large only, and the "Size large" in the admission comment conflicts with that rating. status: needs-decision comes off, since it stood only for the Q93 split.

Lane 4 holds the lease and is building the replay inventory: the unattended merges in lane telemetry, author models, and hindsight outcomes. Model runs start after the count is known.

Replay result: `/review:merge-risk` over every unattended lane merge

The new rubric (#12954) caught both known risks, but its demote flag would have sent 227 of 674 unattended merges (34%) to a person. Against hindsight, 212 of those had nothing later go wrong. Recommendation for Q57: do not wire demote into a merge gate. Record each rating instead (design below), and come back to Q57 when the revert data can measure precision.

Criterion 1: every unattended lane merge, each at its merged head

Population: 674 PRs.
- 663 merged by the pr-merge lane (mergedBy is the lanes App, and the lane's babysit-merge-pin comment records each merge), 2026-10-17 to 2026-11-05.
- The 11 babysit-loop merges of 2026-10-04 that feat(review): add a risk-only action to explain-change that can only demote an unattended merge #7024 replayed (Lane telemetry: babysit-loop #3742's telemetry, merge_rung: c3-autonomous).
Excluded, with the reason for each:
- 35 PRs merged by a Cursor App session on 2026-10-04. No lane telemetry records them.
- The July 2026 lane merges in ops: loop-lane telemetry — running per-lane status (babysit / triage / work) #502 and Lane telemetry: babysit-loop #1214. Those records are narrative and have no attended or unattended field.
- Merges under the owner's login, the release Apps' merges, and Dependabot PRs a person merged.
Every input was frozen at merge time, so no run could see later state on main (the gap in feat(review): add a risk-only action to explain-change that can only demote an unattended merge #7024):
- the diff came from git diff <merge>^ <merge>;
- the title and body came from the squash message;
- the closing issue's body was taken as of the merge, with only the comments posted before it. None of the 529 closing issues was edited after its PR merged.
Each run was fenced with claude -p --restricted in a directory outside any repository: no Bash, file tools confined to that PR's inputs, and no CLAUDE.md loaded.
- The rater's plugin copy held only the skill, the rubric, the one-way-doors file and the checker agent.
- Probes on feat(ci): add trusted-actor gate, kill-switch, text selection and signed-commit actions for CI lanes #6205 confirmed each fence before the batch ran.

Criterion 3: two checkers per PR

Models:

Checker 1 is the skill's own blind review:brief-reviewer, which runs on Opus at high effort.
Checker 2 runs the skill's step-3 brief verbatim on Sonnet at high effort, Read-only. Sonnet is the other class because brief-reviewer's Opus pin keeps judgment fan-out off the frontier tier (ADR 0045), and Haiku is held until the routing eval (multi-agent: paired model-routing eval for retrieval, review and mechanical-edit roles #6901).
Which checker matches the author. Lane commits carry no model trailer, so the author model was read from the lane's model config at each merge's base commit:
- 530 lane merges ran on the code-fix route (Opus, high effort). With the 12 merges from before that config existed (the babysit 11, whose commits carry Claude Opus 5.5 trailers, and build: Bump anthropics/claude-code-action from 1.0.248 to 1.0.250 in the vendor-actions group across 1 directory #7708), Opus is the author arm for 542 PRs.
- 132 lane merges came from the earlier model: default route, where sampled trailers say Claude Sonnet 5.5. For those, Sonnet is the author arm.

Agreement over all 674 PRs:

Agreement	Count
Opus checker max = Sonnet checker max	534 (79%)
Opus and Sonnet maxes within one level	674 (100%)
Rater max = Opus checker max	550 (82%)
Rater max = Sonnet checker max	562 (83%)
`demote` (Opus arm) = `demote` (Sonnet arm)	598 (89%)
HIGH or above from the Opus checker only	86
HIGH or above from the Sonnet checker only	24

Opus and Sonnet maxes cross-tabulated (row is Opus, column is Sonnet; L, M, H, C are LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, CRITICAL):

	L	M	H
L	34	22	0
M	7	375	24
H	0	86	125
C	0	0	1

The Opus checker is the stricter one:

75 of the 227 demotions came from the Opus checker alone, with the rater at MEDIUM or below.
Only 15 came from the rater alone.

Criterion 4: demotions, missed risks and false demotions

demote is computed as the skill defines it (rater or Opus checker at HIGH or above). The Sonnet arm is the same rule with the Sonnet checker in the checker's place.

Stratum	PRs	Demoted (Opus arm)	Demoted (Sonnet arm)	False demotions, Opus arm	False demotions, Sonnet arm
A: babysit 11	11	3	1	1	0
B1: floor paths or workflows	35	19	18	18	16
B2: other CI or config paths	37	17	15	14	12
C: hooks	45	26	26	24	24
D: Dependabot	39	11	13	11	13
E: everything else	503	149	116	144	112
H: hindsight follow-ups	4	2	2	0	0
Total	674	227	191	212	177

How each column is defined:

Missed risk: a PR where hindsight says a person should have looked, and that the replay did not demote. Only two PRs qualify:
- fix(source-control): block only a negated closing reference in the PR body linkage hooks #10810 broke a contract that fix(source-control): restore the linkage validator contract the standards lockstep reads #10964 restored ("standards check-pr-convention-copies broke after fix(source-control): block only a negated closing reference in the PR body linkage hooks #10810"). Its Impact row was rated HIGH by the rater and both checkers.
- feat(ci): add trusted-actor gate, kill-switch, text selection and signed-commit actions for CI lanes #6205, which feat(review): add a risk-only action to explain-change that can only demote an unattended merge #7024 missed. All three rated its Impact HIGH.
False demotion: a demotion with no later revert, fix or issue naming the PR. Hindsight is thin (0 of 674 were reverted), so this column is an upper bound.
Hindsight follow-ups:
- Demoted: fix(session-bridge): harden the view-bridge watcher, token and local-user defences #9806 and feat(planning): count a trusted human's comment marker as problem pre-confirmation #11516.
- Not demoted: fix(evals): stop a no-plugin arm's search for its missing plugin voiding a leg #13216, fix(app-control): state a clean tree in two map refresh eval cases and note they need --scaffold #10779 and fix(pr-unblock): hold lane-escalated PRs on a person's inline review-thread reply #10577. Each was a small later fix, not a regression.
- 11 of the 12 PRs where a lane defect was observed were demoted.

Other numbers:

By authoring era (Opus arm): 196 of 530 Opus-route lane PRs demoted (37%), against 28 of 132 default-route PRs (21%).
Areas rated HIGH on demoted PRs: reversibility 113, verification 101, impact 92, other 22, error detection 3, alignment 1. One rating reached CRITICAL: feat(sql-server): add the human-approved write tier #12075, from the Opus checker.
The 105-PR stratified sample ran first and under-estimated. It demoted only 3 of 25 in the "everything else" stratum (12%); the census shows 149 of 503 (30%).

Criterion 2: per-PR table

Levels are the maximum over areas, as L, M, H, C. The hindsight classes are:

caused-by: a later change undid a defect this PR introduced.
follow-up: a later change finished this PR's work.
observed-on: a lane or CI defect was seen on this PR.
none: nothing later names this PR.

All 674 PRs

PR	Stratum	Rater	Opus checker	Sonnet checker	demote	demote (sonnet arm)	Hindsight
#6198	A	L	L	L	N	N	none
#6200	A	M	M	M	N	N	none
#6201	A	M	L	M	N	N	none
#6203	A	L	M	L	N	N	none
#6205	A	H	H	H	Y	Y	known miss (#7024 judgment)
#6208	A	M	M	M	N	N	none
#6209	A	M	H	M	Y	N	observed-on
#6210	A	M	M	M	N	N	none
#6213	A	M	M	M	N	N	none
#6216	A	M	M	M	N	N	follow-up?
#6217	A	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#7708	D	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#7795	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#7796	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#7798	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#7801	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#7880	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#7896	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#7942	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#7943	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#7946	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#7947	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#7957	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#7961	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#8014	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8033	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#8036	E	L	M	L	N	N	none
#8038	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8040	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8045	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8046	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8049	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8052	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#8060	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#8061	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#8064	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8070	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8071	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#8075	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#8091	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#8092	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8093	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#8094	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8099	E	L	M	L	N	N	none
#8100	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8102	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8104	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8105	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#8106	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8107	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8108	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8114	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8120	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#8124	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8126	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#8128	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#8129	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#8132	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8134	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8136	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#8139	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#8148	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8155	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#8164	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#8165	E	M	M	L	N	N	none
#8167	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8174	E	L	M	L	N	N	none
#8190	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#8195	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#8198	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8199	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#8224	E	M	M	L	N	N	none
#8229	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8287	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8289	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8290	D	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#8350	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8352	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8356	D	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#8585	D	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#8616	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8634	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8661	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#8778	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8807	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8828	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#8829	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#8838	D	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#8845	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#8944	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9009	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9057	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9058	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9131	D	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#9162	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9200	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9203	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9206	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9210	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9219	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9232	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9233	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9266	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9322	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9324	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9325	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9327	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9337	E	M	L	L	N	N	none
#9383	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#9386	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9388	D	H	M	H	Y	Y	none
#9392	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9395	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9401	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9475	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9489	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9502	D	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#9511	D	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#9540	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9554	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9594	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9597	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9604	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9631	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9632	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9637	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#9640	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9642	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9643	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9654	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#9800	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#9804	E	M	H	M	Y	N	observed-on
#9806	H	H	H	H	Y	Y	follow-up fix
#9811	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#9815	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#9818	E	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#9821	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9823	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9825	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#9828	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#9829	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9830	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#9831	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9832	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9833	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9858	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#9860	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9884	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9885	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9887	C	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#9888	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9890	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#9894	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9896	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9897	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9916	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#9917	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9952	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9956	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9963	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9965	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#9970	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#9976	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9980	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#9981	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9985	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9987	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#9991	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9994	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#9999	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10000	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10010	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10013	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10016	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10018	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10019	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10021	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#10041	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10042	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10044	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10047	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10050	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10052	E	H	M	H	Y	Y	none
#10054	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10055	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10056	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10057	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10059	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10064	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10066	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10069	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10071	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10078	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10090	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10092	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10095	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10097	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10098	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10100	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10102	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#10116	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10122	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10123	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10127	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10137	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10157	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10158	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10161	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10164	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10167	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10169	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10172	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10187	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10196	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10216	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10219	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10220	B1	L	M	M	N	N	none
#10224	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#10228	B2	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#10229	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#10238	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10239	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10245	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10247	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10285	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10287	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10306	E	L	M	L	N	N	none
#10310	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10311	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10322	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10324	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10325	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10328	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10331	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10332	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10343	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10344	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10345	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#10347	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10348	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10351	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10352	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10353	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10354	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10356	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10372	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10374	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#10375	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10376	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10377	B1	M	M	H	N	Y	observed-on
#10379	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10380	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10408	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10410	B1	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10411	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10412	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10413	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10414	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10415	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10416	B1	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10418	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10419	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10421	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10422	B2	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10424	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10425	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10426	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10428	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10430	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10433	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10435	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10439	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#10440	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10441	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10443	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10444	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10447	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10455	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10457	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10458	D	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10493	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10495	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10497	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10499	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10508	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10510	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10514	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10521	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10524	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10531	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10535	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10537	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10539	B1	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#10541	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10542	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10544	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10546	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10555	B2	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10556	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10561	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10566	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10570	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10572	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10575	B1	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10577	B1	M	M	M	N	N	follow-up fix
#10578	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10581	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10582	B1	L	M	M	N	N	none
#10585	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10586	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10595	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10609	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10610	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#10612	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10613	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10615	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10617	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10621	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10622	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#10623	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10636	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10637	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10638	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10639	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10641	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10642	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10644	D	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#10645	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10664	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10665	B2	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#10695	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10698	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10702	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#10714	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10738	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10745	B2	L	L	M	N	N	none
#10768	B2	L	M	M	N	N	none
#10769	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10770	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10773	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10776	D	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#10779	H	M	M	M	N	N	follow-up fix
#10797	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10798	B2	M	L	M	N	N	none
#10801	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10802	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#10803	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10805	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10806	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10808	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10809	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10810	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	caused-by
#10813	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10814	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10815	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10820	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10822	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10824	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10826	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10827	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10828	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10829	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#10830	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#10833	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10867	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10869	B2	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#10870	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10871	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10875	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10877	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#10878	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10879	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10882	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10884	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#10885	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10888	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10889	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10890	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10892	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10893	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10894	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10895	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10896	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10899	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10900	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10901	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10904	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10905	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10907	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10909	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10911	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#10913	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10914	C	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10915	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10916	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10918	B2	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10920	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#10921	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10923	C	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10924	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10925	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10926	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10928	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10929	C	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10930	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10932	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10933	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#10934	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10935	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10936	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10938	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10940	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10945	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10955	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10956	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#10958	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10960	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10963	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10965	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#10968	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10973	C	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#10974	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#10984	B2	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#10989	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11027	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#11040	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11049	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11051	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11052	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11053	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11054	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11067	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11071	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11076	C	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#11077	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11081	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11086	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11089	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11092	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11093	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11095	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11098	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11107	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11108	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11109	B1	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11111	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11135	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11138	E	H	M	H	Y	Y	none
#11139	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11140	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11142	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11143	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11144	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11146	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11148	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11297	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11305	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11310	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11313	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11314	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11341	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11345	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11347	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11349	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11350	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11353	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11354	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11371	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11374	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11399	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11400	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11404	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11409	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11417	B1	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11419	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11421	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11443	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#11444	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11448	C	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11451	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11452	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11454	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11464	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11468	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11469	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#11477	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11483	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#11495	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#11496	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11497	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11499	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#11505	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11507	C	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#11509	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11510	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11512	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11513	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11515	C	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#11516	H	H	H	H	Y	Y	follow-up fix?
#11518	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11521	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#11522	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#11523	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11525	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11529	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11531	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11532	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11539	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11554	C	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#11559	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11571	B2	L	M	M	N	N	none
#11610	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11614	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#11635	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11636	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11642	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11643	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11676	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11694	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11699	B1	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11703	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11704	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11706	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11707	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11709	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11711	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11712	C	L	L	M	N	N	none
#11716	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11718	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11720	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#11721	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11725	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11730	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11731	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#11737	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11742	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11746	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11770	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#11778	E	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#11779	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11781	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11782	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11787	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#11793	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11807	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11810	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11812	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#11822	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11827	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#11829	E	H	M	H	Y	Y	none
#11830	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11852	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11854	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	observed-on
#11861	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11862	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#11885	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#11890	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11894	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11899	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#11910	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11915	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11919	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11922	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11925	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11927	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11935	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11942	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11947	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#11952	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#11978	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#11990	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#11993	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12000	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12007	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12045	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12047	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12075	E	H	C	H	Y	Y	none
#12088	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12089	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12090	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12098	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12100	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12125	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12128	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12130	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12163	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12165	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12167	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12169	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12203	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12205	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#12216	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#12238	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12239	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12246	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12262	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12266	C	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12281	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12288	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12301	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12307	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12313	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#12317	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12319	C	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12325	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12329	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12332	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12338	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#12348	D	H	M	M	Y	Y	none
#12407	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12432	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12435	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12458	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12460	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12480	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12512	E	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#12514	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#12554	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#12578	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12720	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12808	D	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#12885	E	L	L	L	N	N	none
#12900	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12914	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12962	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#12974	E	H	H	M	Y	Y	none
#12981	B2	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#13006	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13031	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13032	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13043	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13048	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#13052	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13054	B2	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#13056	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13059	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13099	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13100	E	M	L	M	N	N	none
#13102	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13115	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#13118	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13119	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13151	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13152	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13154	D	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#13155	D	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13158	D	M	M	H	N	Y	none
#13183	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#13195	E	L	M	M	N	N	none
#13212	B1	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13216	H	M	M	M	N	N	follow-up fix
#13240	B2	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13254	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13255	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13270	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13273	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13294	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13317	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13318	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13335	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13336	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13345	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#13365	E	M	H	M	Y	N	none
#13382	E	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#13429	B1	H	H	H	Y	Y	none
#13446	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13479	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13487	C	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#13510	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#13514	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13551	E	M	M	M	N	N	none
#13553	E	L	L	M	N	N	none
#13563	E	M	H	H	Y	Y	none
#13567	B2	H	H	H	Y	Y	none

Criterion 5: recording design, and the Q57 recommendation

The problem. Owner decision 3 asks for each merge-risk result (PR, head, area levels, demote) to be joinable to reverts, and for /work-items:measure-delivery to report the revert rate per risk level. measure-delivery reads only git history ("no tracker or forge call is made"), so where the result is stored decides whether the join needs any forge reads.

Prerequisite, found during the replay. measure-delivery counts a revert only from a This reverts commit <sha> line or a Revert "<subject>" subject. All 13 revert commits on main since 2026-10-04 use the Conventional Commits form revert(<scope>): … and carry neither. Today it would report 0 reverts for this repository, whatever was recorded. It needs to recognize revert(<scope>): commits, and the lane revert records that the post-merge demotion alert files.

Options for where the result is written:

A Merge-Risk: line in the squash commit message (recommended).
- The step that arms the merge already posts the head pin. It would also add one line to the PR body before the merge queue takes it: Merge-Risk: max=<level> demote=<bool> head=<sha> rubric=<plugin version> rater=<model> checker=<model>.
- The line lands in the squash commit, so the deployment and its rating sit in the same record. measure-delivery joins them with no forge call.
- Retention is git history, so nothing needs pruning.
- Cost: one PR-body edit per merge. The line is report-only and never read by a gate, so a later edit of it changes no merge decision.
Extend the existing pin comment (babysit-merge-pin) with the same fields.
- This adds no new writer, and the record is per head.
- But measure-delivery would need one comments read per merged PR, which breaks its git-only design. Retention is the PR's life.
An artifact or JSONL file from the pr-merge workflow.
- Artifacts expire, so the history needed for a revert rate is lost.
- Rejected.

Recommendation: option 1, plus the measure-delivery revert-detection fix above. Basis: measure-delivery is the named consumer, and its signal reads only git; option 1 is the only one that keeps that true.

Q57: wire demote into a merge gate?

Recommended: no.
- Keep /review:merge-risk report-only.
- Ship the recording (option 1), so each lane merge carries its rating.
- Revisit Q57 once measure-delivery can report the revert rate per level from enough reverts.
- Basis: the replay demotes 34% of unattended merges, about 11 a day across the 20 days of lane merging. That is 227 human stops against 2 known positives, and 0 reverts to measure precision against.
- The owner's stop rule sends an item to a person only for an intent change or a security issue in its PR (When work stops for the owner). Most demotions here are reversibility and verification ratings, which that rule does not cover.
Alternative: wire it as specified. Every HIGH from the rater or the Opus checker demotes. It catches #6205 and #10810, but stops 227 merges.
Alternative: wire a narrow rule. For example, demote only on an Impact row at HIGH that both the rater and a checker agree on. Data for this: Impact was rated HIGH on 92 demoted PRs, including both positives. This needs its own replay to count before it is chosen.
If any version is wired, use the Opus checker. It is the stricter arm (86 HIGH ratings that Sonnet did not give, against 24 the other way), and it is the author model for 542 of the 674 PRs.

Also found (outside this issue's scope)

A lane merge landed at a head its pin did not name: #13240.
- Auto-merge was armed at 5ccfd16e at 13:52Z.
- pr-unblock/address-feedback pushed a62fcbb5 at 13:55Z, with no auto_merge_disabled event.
- It merged at a62fcbb5 at 14:06Z.
- ci-status and both review lanes passed on a62fcbb5. The arming step's own checks ran only on 5ccfd16e.
- That was 1 in the 94 sampled lane merges where the pin was compared with the merged head. It needs triage on its own.
The lanes do not record the author model. Lane commits carry only Lane-Activity:. Which model the opus alias resolved to on each run is visible only in the run log, so the recording line should name the model ID.

No gate change lands under this issue.

Owner decision Q57 (2026-11-05, in session, verbatim: "Go w/ recommenadtions"). demote is not wired into any merge gate. Ratings are recorded first, and Q57 comes back once revert rates per risk level can be measured.

All five criteria are met: the replay covered 674 of 674 merges (criterion 1), the per-PR table and both checker arms are in the results comment above (criteria 2 and 3), the counts are there too (criterion 4), and the recording design plus the Q57 recommendation went to the owner and were decided (criterion 5). No gate change landed under this issue.

The follow-up work is filed:

fix(work-items): count revert(<scope>): squash commits as reverts in measure-delivery #13656: /work-items:measure-delivery counts revert(<scope>): commits, so a revert rate can be measured at all.
feat(source-control): record a report-only Merge-Risk line on each unattended lane merge #13657: the unattended merge path records a Merge-Risk: line in the squash commit (the recommended option 1 above), report-only.

Closing as completed.

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feat(review): replay /review:merge-risk over past unattended merges before wiring demote #12984

Problem

Owner decisions (2026-11-03, in session)

Acceptance criteria

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9 remaining items

Replay result: `/review:merge-risk` over every unattended lane merge

Criterion 1: every unattended lane merge, each at its merged head

Criterion 3: two checkers per PR

Criterion 4: demotions, missed risks and false demotions

Criterion 2: per-PR table

Criterion 5: recording design, and the Q57 recommendation

Also found (outside this issue's scope)

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feat(review): replay /review:merge-risk over past unattended merges before wiring demote #12984

Description

Problem

Owner decisions (2026-11-03, in session)

Acceptance criteria

Related

Activity

github-actions commented on Nov 3, 2026

melodic-automation-lanes commented on Nov 3, 2026

melodic-automation-lanes commented on Nov 3, 2026

kyle-sexton commented on Nov 4, 2026

9 remaining items

github-actions commented on Nov 4, 2026

kyle-sexton commented on Nov 5, 2026

kyle-sexton commented on Nov 5, 2026

kyle-sexton commented on Nov 5, 2026

kyle-sexton commented on Nov 6, 2026

Replay result: /review:merge-risk over every unattended lane merge

Criterion 1: every unattended lane merge, each at its merged head

Criterion 3: two checkers per PR

Criterion 4: demotions, missed risks and false demotions

Criterion 2: per-PR table

Criterion 5: recording design, and the Q57 recommendation

Also found (outside this issue's scope)

kyle-sexton commented on Nov 6, 2026

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Replay result: `/review:merge-risk` over every unattended lane merge