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Merged
mknaranja merged 2 commits into from
May 13, 2026
+36 −27
Merged

1564 Dynamic NPIs can create short lifting gaps at renewal time #1567

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eaf858e
renewal at t >= t_end and not when t > t_end
HenrZu May 13, 2026
5af3dae
update h5 secirvvs test file
HenrZu May 13, 2026
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15 changes: 10 additions & 5 deletions cpp/benchmarks/flow_simulation_ode_secirvvs.h
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -570,12 +570,17 @@ class Simulation : public Base
auto inf_rel = get_infections_relative(*this, t, this->get_result().get_last_value()) *
dyn_npis.get_base_value();
auto exceeded_threshold = dyn_npis.get_max_exceeded_threshold(inf_rel);
const bool npi_expired =
floating_point_greater_equal(t, ScalarType(m_dynamic_npi.second), 1e-10);
if (exceeded_threshold != dyn_npis.get_thresholds().end() &&
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first ||
t > ScalarType(m_dynamic_npi.second))) { // old npi was weaker or is expired

if (t + delay_npi_implementation < direc_end) {
auto t_start = SimulationTime<ScalarType>(t + delay_npi_implementation);
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first || npi_expired)) {
// old npi was weaker or is expired

const bool is_expiry_renewal =
npi_expired && !(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first);
ScalarType effective_delay = is_expiry_renewal ? ScalarType(0) : delay_npi_implementation;
if (t + effective_delay < direc_end) {
auto t_start = SimulationTime<ScalarType>(t + effective_delay);
// set the end to the minimum of start+delay and the end of the directive
auto t_end = SimulationTime<ScalarType>(
std::min<ScalarType>(direc_end, ScalarType(t_start + dyn_npis.get_duration())));
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5 changes: 3 additions & 2 deletions cpp/memilio/mobility/metapopulation_mobility_instant.h
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Expand Up @@ -551,9 +551,10 @@ void mio::MobilityEdge<FP>::apply_mobility(FP t, FP dt, SimulationNode<FP, Sim>&
auto inf_rel =
get_infections_relative<FP>(node_from, t, node_from.get_last_state()) * dyn_npis.get_base_value();
auto exceeded_threshold = dyn_npis.get_max_exceeded_threshold(inf_rel);
const bool npi_expired = floating_point_greater_equal(t, FP(m_dynamic_npi.second), 1e-10);
if (exceeded_threshold != dyn_npis.get_thresholds().end() &&
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first ||
t > FP(m_dynamic_npi.second))) { //old NPI was weaker or is expired
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first || npi_expired)) {
//old NPI was weaker or is expired
auto t_end = SimulationTime<FP>(t + dyn_npis.get_duration().get());
m_dynamic_npi = std::make_pair(exceeded_threshold->first, t_end);
implement_dynamic_npis<FP>(m_parameters.get_coefficients(), exceeded_threshold->second,
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9 changes: 5 additions & 4 deletions cpp/models/ode_secir/model.h
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Expand Up @@ -315,15 +315,16 @@ class Simulation : public BaseT
auto inf_rel = get_infections_relative<FP>(*this, t, this->get_result().get_last_value()) *
dyn_npis.get_base_value();
auto exceeded_threshold = dyn_npis.get_max_exceeded_threshold(inf_rel);
const bool npi_expired = floating_point_greater_equal(t, FP(m_dynamic_npi.second), 1e-10);
if (exceeded_threshold != dyn_npis.get_thresholds().end() &&
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first ||
t > FP(m_dynamic_npi.second))) { // old npi was weaker or is expired
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first || npi_expired)) {
// old npi was weaker or is expired

// Keep-alive: if the NPI expired but the threshold is still exceeded at the
// same level, renew immediately without delay to avoid a gap.
// Apply implementation delay only if stronger NPI needed.
bool is_expiry_renewal =
(t > FP(m_dynamic_npi.second)) && !(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first);
npi_expired && !(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first);
FP effective_delay = is_expiry_renewal ? FP(0) : delay_npi_implementation;
if (t + effective_delay < direc_end) {
auto t_start = SimulationTime<FP>(t + effective_delay);
Expand All @@ -341,7 +342,7 @@ class Simulation : public BaseT
auto t_start_damping = (!is_expiry_renewal && FP(t_start) > FP(0))
? SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_start) + FP(1))
: t_start;
auto t_end_damping = (FP(t_start) > FP(0)) ? SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_end) + FP(1)) : t_end;
auto t_end_damping = SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_end) + FP(1));
implement_dynamic_npis<FP>(contact_patterns.get_cont_freq_mat(), exceeded_threshold->second,
t_start_damping, t_end_damping, [](auto& g) {
return make_contact_damping_matrix(g);
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9 changes: 5 additions & 4 deletions cpp/models/ode_secirts/model.h
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Expand Up @@ -785,15 +785,16 @@ class Simulation : public BaseT
auto inf_rel = get_infections_relative<FP>(*this, t, this->get_result().get_last_value()) *
dyn_npis.get_base_value();
auto exceeded_threshold = dyn_npis.get_max_exceeded_threshold(inf_rel);
const bool npi_expired = floating_point_greater_equal(t, FP(m_dynamic_npi.second), 1e-10);
if (exceeded_threshold != dyn_npis.get_thresholds().end() &&
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first ||
t > FP(m_dynamic_npi.second))) { //old npi was weaker or is expired
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first || npi_expired)) {
//old npi was weaker or is expired

// Keep-alive: if the NPI expired but the threshold is still exceeded at the
// same level, renew immediately without delay to avoid a gap.
// Apply implementation delay only if stronger NPI needed.
bool is_expiry_renewal =
(t > FP(m_dynamic_npi.second)) && !(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first);
npi_expired && !(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first);
FP effective_delay = is_expiry_renewal ? FP(0) : delay_npi_implementation;
if (t + effective_delay < direc_end) {
auto t_start = SimulationTime<FP>(t + effective_delay);
Expand All @@ -813,7 +814,7 @@ class Simulation : public BaseT
auto t_start_damping = (!is_expiry_renewal && FP(t_start) > FP(0))
? SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_start) + FP(1))
: t_start;
auto t_end_damping = (FP(t_start) > FP(0)) ? SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_end) + FP(1)) : t_end;
auto t_end_damping = SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_end) + FP(1));
implement_dynamic_npis<FP>(contact_patterns.get_cont_freq_mat(), exceeded_threshold->second,
t_start_damping, t_end_damping, [](auto& g) {
return make_contact_damping_matrix(g);
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9 changes: 5 additions & 4 deletions cpp/models/ode_secirvvs/model.h
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Expand Up @@ -710,15 +710,16 @@ class Simulation : public BaseT
auto inf_rel = get_infections_relative<FP>(*this, t, this->get_result().get_last_value()) *
dyn_npis.get_base_value();
auto exceeded_threshold = dyn_npis.get_max_exceeded_threshold(inf_rel);
const bool npi_expired = floating_point_greater_equal(t, FP(m_dynamic_npi.second), 1e-10);
if (exceeded_threshold != dyn_npis.get_thresholds().end() &&
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first ||
t > FP(m_dynamic_npi.second))) { //old npi was weaker or is expired
(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first || npi_expired)) {
//old npi was weaker or is expired

// Keep-alive: if the NPI expired but the threshold is still exceeded at the
// same level, renew immediately without delay to avoid a gap.
// Apply implementation delay only if stronger NPI needed.
bool is_expiry_renewal =
(t > FP(m_dynamic_npi.second)) && !(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first);
npi_expired && !(exceeded_threshold->first > m_dynamic_npi.first);
FP effective_delay = is_expiry_renewal ? FP(0) : delay_npi_implementation;
if (t + effective_delay < direc_end) {
auto t_start = SimulationTime<FP>(t + effective_delay);
Expand All @@ -738,7 +739,7 @@ class Simulation : public BaseT
auto t_start_damping = (!is_expiry_renewal && FP(t_start) > FP(0))
? SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_start) + FP(1))
: t_start;
auto t_end_damping = (FP(t_start) > FP(0)) ? SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_end) + FP(1)) : t_end;
auto t_end_damping = SimulationTime<FP>(FP(t_end) + FP(1));
implement_dynamic_npis<FP>(contact_patterns.get_cont_freq_mat(), exceeded_threshold->second,
t_start_damping, t_end_damping, [](auto& g) {
return make_contact_damping_matrix(g);
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Binary file modified cpp/tests/data/results_osecirvvs.h5
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16 changes: 8 additions & 8 deletions cpp/tests/test_dynamic_npis.cpp
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Expand Up @@ -682,8 +682,8 @@ TEST(DynamicNPIs, secir_expiry_keep_alive)
//
// Timeline (delay=2, duration=5, t0=1):
// 1st NPI: t_start=3, t_start_damping=4, t_end=8, t_end_damping=9
// At t=9 (expiry): keep-alive acts, t_start=9, t_start_damping=9 (no +1!),
// t_end=14, t_end_damping=15 -> list collapses to [(t=4,0.5),(t=15,0.0)]
// At t=8 (expiry): keep-alive acts, t_start=8, t_start_damping=8 (no +1!),
// t_end=13, t_end_damping=14 -> list collapses to [(t=4,0.5),(t=14,0.0)]
mio::osecir::Model<double> model(1);
model.populations[{mio::AgeGroup(0), mio::osecir::InfectionState::InfectedSymptoms}] = 10;
model.populations.set_difference_from_total({mio::AgeGroup(0), mio::osecir::InfectionState::Susceptible}, 100);
Expand All @@ -703,22 +703,22 @@ TEST(DynamicNPIs, secir_expiry_keep_alive)
npis.set_implementation_delay(mio::SimulationTime<double>(2.0));
model.parameters.get<mio::osecir::DynamicNPIsInfectedSymptoms<double>>() = npis;

// Stop at t=14 so the 2nd keep-alive (which would act at t=15) does not trigger.
// Stop at t=12 so the 2nd keep-alive (which would act at t=13) does not trigger.
mio::osecir::Simulation<double, mio_test::MockSimulation<mio::osecir::Model>> sim(model, 1.0);
sim.advance(14.0);
sim.advance(12.0);

auto const& cm_dyn = sim.get_model().parameters.get<mio::osecir::ContactPatterns<double>>().get_cont_freq_mat();

// Damping list after keep-alive collapses to [(t=4, 0.5), (t=15, 0.0)]:
// Damping list after keep-alive collapses to [(t=4, 0.5), (t=14, 0.0)]:
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(4.0))(0, 0), 0.5); // 1st NPI active
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(8.0))(0, 0), 0.5); // still active
// no dip at t=9 as keep-alive overwrote the restore entry, contact stays at 0.5.
// (Without this fix the restore would restore to 1.0 at t=9.)
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(9.0))(0, 0), 0.5);
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(10.0))(0, 0), 0.5); // still constant
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(14.0))(0, 0), 0.5); // still active
// Restore window [14, 15]: complete at t=15.
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(15.0))(0, 0), 1.0);
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(13.0))(0, 0), 0.5); // still active
// Restore window [13, 14]: complete at t=14.
EXPECT_DOUBLE_EQ(cm_dyn.get_matrix_at(mio::SimulationTime<double>(14.0))(0, 0), 1.0);
}

TEST(DynamicNPIs, secirvvs_threshold_safe)
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