Add CTC calibration follow-up targets and validation

[MaxGhenis]

Summary

• load national AGI-split refundable and nonrefundable CTC targets from the IRS geography file and include them in the training target config
• expand national CTC diagnostics to AGI-by-filing-status, qualifying-child-count, and qualifying-child-age tables
• add canonical ARPA-style CTC/EITC reform diagnostics to validate_national_h5 and cover the new paths with unit tests

Issue linkage

• Closes Target CTC qualifying-child composition by age and child-count buckets #718
• Closes Add canonical CTC reform diagnostics to ECPS release validation #719
• Addresses Add AGI-by-filing-status CTC targets for refundable and nonrefundable components #717

Notes

This lands the admin-backed part of #717: national AGI-band CTC targets plus AGI-by-filing-status diagnostics. I am not claiming true admin-backed filing-status-split refundable/nonrefundable CTC targets here, because the IRS geography and workbook sources currently ingested in this repo do not expose those component splits directly.

Supersedes #720, which was blocked by the repo's check-fork policy.

Validation

• uv run pytest tests/unit/calibration/test_ctc_diagnostics.py tests/unit/calibration/test_validate_national_h5.py tests/unit/calibration/test_target_config.py tests/unit/test_etl_irs_soi_overlay.py
• uv run pytest tests/unit/test_schema_views_and_lookups.py tests/unit/calibration/test_unified_matrix_builder.py
• uv run ruff check changelog.d/719.added.md policyengine_us_data/calibration/ctc_diagnostics.py policyengine_us_data/calibration/validate_national_h5.py policyengine_us_data/db/etl_irs_soi.py tests/unit/calibration/test_ctc_diagnostics.py tests/unit/calibration/test_validate_national_h5.py tests/unit/calibration/test_target_config.py tests/unit/test_etl_irs_soi_overlay.py
• uv run towncrier check --compare-with origin/main

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated (UTC)
pipeline-diagrams	Error		Apr 10, 2026 7:33pm

[baogorek]

Looks good to me. The new national AGI-split refundable/nonrefundable CTC targets, diagnostics, and validation coverage all line up, and the focused test coverage here is solid.

One thing to keep in mind when merging or rebasing: PR #708 is currently checked out on my side and it changes the CPS identification inputs / TIN handling. This PR does not directly modify that logic, but those identification changes can still affect the composition of CTC results, so it is worth re-checking the new CTC diagnostics after #708 lands or if this branch is rebased onto it.