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Refresh VOA council tax and official PIP target sources#328

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MaxGhenis merged 1 commit intomainfrom
codex/refresh-targets-batch
Apr 12, 2026
Merged

Refresh VOA council tax and official PIP target sources#328
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit intomainfrom
codex/refresh-targets-batch

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@MaxGhenis
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Summary

  • refresh the VOA council tax target source to the 2025 release and parse live England, Wales, and Scotland regional totals
  • replace the PIP daily living target citation with the official January 2026 DWP statistics release
  • align the target-registry checks with the refreshed 2025 target sources

Verification

  • uvx ruff check policyengine_uk_data/targets/sources/dwp.py policyengine_uk_data/targets/sources/voa_council_tax.py policyengine_uk_data/tests/test_target_registry.py
  • uv run pytest -q policyengine_uk_data/tests/test_target_registry.py policyengine_uk_data/tests/test_uc_by_children.py

Notes

  • OBR March 2026, benefit cap November 2025, and the scaled local UC-by-children split were already on main; this PR closes the remaining freshness gaps from the audit.

@MaxGhenis
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Target-value update for this refresh:

PIP daily living

  • dwp/pip_dl_standard_claimants: unchanged at 1,283,000
  • dwp/pip_dl_enhanced_claimants: unchanged at 1,608,000
  • change here is source quality, not the values: this PR switches those targets from a Disability Rights UK article to the official DWP January 2026 PIP statistics release

VOA council tax

  • this PR moves the target year/source from the stored 2024 CSV to the live 2025 VOA publication, with Scotland refreshed from the 2025 Scottish chargeable-dwellings workbook
  • headline effect on the regional .../total targets:
Region 2024 target 2025 target Delta % change
NORTH_EAST 1,280,700 1,287,830 +7,130 +0.56%
NORTH_WEST 3,441,730 3,466,140 +24,410 +0.71%
SOUTH_EAST 4,138,200 4,169,520 +31,320 +0.76%
SOUTH_WEST 2,683,030 2,704,390 +21,360 +0.80%
LONDON 3,813,790 3,837,430 +23,640 +0.62%
EAST_MIDLANDS 2,213,820 2,233,400 +19,580 +0.88%
WEST_MIDLANDS 2,619,300 2,637,190 +17,890 +0.68%
YORKSHIRE 2,530,680 2,547,080 +16,400 +0.65%
EAST_OF_ENGLAND 2,841,060 2,863,600 +22,540 +0.79%
WALES 1,476,690 1,484,410 +7,720 +0.52%
SCOTLAND 2,602,545 2,623,149 +20,604 +0.79%
TOTAL 29,641,545 29,854,139 +212,594 +0.72%

I am not listing all 99 band-level targets here, but the year-over-year movement is consistently modest and positive; the main point is that the targets are now coming from the latest official 2025 stock publications rather than the old baked-in 2024 CSV.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit bb85b9b into main Apr 12, 2026
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the codex/refresh-targets-batch branch April 12, 2026 14:12
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