diff --git a/aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/agent_factory.py b/aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/agent_factory.py index 2fd6047b..f47d6d42 100644 --- a/aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/agent_factory.py +++ b/aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/agent_factory.py @@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations +import json import logging import os import warnings @@ -19,9 +20,12 @@ from typing import Any, Callable, Sequence from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.outputs import AgentForecastOutput -from aieng.forecasting.models import LITE_MODEL +from aieng.forecasting.models import ADVANCED_MODEL, LITE_MODEL from google.adk.models.base_llm import BaseLlm -from pydantic import BaseModel, Field, field_validator, model_validator +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field, ValidationError, field_validator, model_validator + + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -113,12 +117,18 @@ class ContextRetrievalConfig(BaseModel): the calling agent can retrieve grounded, sourced web context without a direct Gemini API key. - Temporal cutoff enforcement is soft (LLM-judgment-based): when - ``enforce_cutoff`` is ``True`` and the calling agent passes a - ``cutoff_date`` to the tool, the inner proxy prompt explicitly asks the - model to exclude post-cutoff sources. This is the same trust model used - by the prior Google Search sub-agent — backtest leakage is a - pedagogically useful discussion point, not a hard guarantee. + Temporal cutoff enforcement has two layers. The first is soft + (LLM-judgment-based): when ``enforce_cutoff`` is ``True`` and the calling + agent passes a ``cutoff_date`` to the tool, the inner proxy prompt + explicitly asks the model to exclude post-cutoff sources. This alone is + not a hard guarantee — backtests have shown it leak real post-cutoff + information despite the instruction. The second, hard layer is an + independent verifier call (see ``verifier_model`` etc. below): a separate + LLM call extracts and judges each factual claim in the search result + against the cutoff, strips violations, and retries the search with + feedback when it cannot produce a sufficiently confident result — + returning an explicit failure sentinel rather than silently risky + content if verification never succeeds within the attempt budget. Attributes ---------- @@ -134,12 +144,27 @@ class ContextRetrievalConfig(BaseModel): enforce_cutoff : bool, default=True When ``True``, the ``search_web`` tool appends a cutoff-date constraint to the user prompt whenever ``cutoff_date`` is supplied by - the calling agent. Set to ``False`` for live (non-backtest) agents - where no temporal fence is needed. + the calling agent, and runs the independent leakage verifier + described above. Set to ``False`` for live (non-backtest) agents + where no temporal fence is needed — the verifier is skipped entirely + in that case, at zero extra cost. temperature : float | None, default=None Sampling temperature for the inner search call. max_output_tokens : int | None, default=None Maximum output tokens for the inner search call. + verifier_model : str, default=ADVANCED_MODEL (``"gemini-3.5-flash"``) + Model used for the independent leakage-verification call. Defaults + to a different model than ``search_model`` so the verifier does not + share the same blind spot as the call it's checking. + verifier_max_attempts : int, default=3 + Maximum number of search-then-verify attempts before giving up and + returning the ``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`` sentinel. + verifier_confidence_threshold : int, default=8 + Minimum self-reported confidence (1-10) the verifier must report, + alongside a clean verdict, for a result to be accepted. Kept + configurable rather than hardcoded because LLM self-reported + confidence is not well-calibrated: too strict a bar (e.g. a literal + 10) risks exhausting retries on results that were actually fine. """ model_config = {"extra": "forbid"} @@ -154,6 +179,9 @@ class ContextRetrievalConfig(BaseModel): enforce_cutoff: bool = True temperature: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0.0, le=2.0) max_output_tokens: int | None = Field(default=None, ge=1) + verifier_model: str = ADVANCED_MODEL + verifier_max_attempts: int = Field(default=3, ge=1) + verifier_confidence_threshold: int = Field(default=8, ge=1, le=10) class CodeExecutionConfig(BaseModel): @@ -207,6 +235,106 @@ def _build_automatic_function_calling_config( return AutomaticFunctionCallingConfig(disable=True) +class _LeakageVerification(BaseModel): + """Structured verdict from the independent temporal-leakage verifier.""" + + flagged_claims: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list) + filtered_text: str = "" + confidence: int = Field(ge=1, le=10) + clean: bool + + +def _build_leakage_verification_schema() -> dict[str, Any]: + """Strict JSON schema for the verifier's structured output. + + Field order matters: the model must extract/flag claims and produce + ``filtered_text`` before declaring ``confidence``/``clean``, so the + verdict follows the claim-level reasoning instead of preceding it. + """ + return { + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "flagged_claims": {"type": "array", "items": {"type": "string"}}, + "filtered_text": {"type": "string"}, + "confidence": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1, "maximum": 10}, + "clean": {"type": "boolean"}, + }, + "required": ["flagged_claims", "filtered_text", "confidence", "clean"], + } + + +_LEAKAGE_VERIFIER_INSTRUCTION = """\ +You are an independent fact-checker verifying that a web search result contains \ +no information published on or after a given cutoff date. + +Extract every discrete factual claim relevant to the query. For each claim, \ +judge whether its *content* (the event itself, prices/figures referenced, \ +described developments) could only be known on or after the cutoff date. \ +Do NOT trust a source's claimed publish date, byline timestamp, or URL — \ +page metadata and timestamps are frequently updated after original \ +publication and are not reliable evidence of when the underlying facts \ +became known. Reason from the substance of the claim itself. + +Remove every claim that fails this test and produce `filtered_text`: the \ +original text with only the surviving, pre-cutoff claims. Report the removed \ +claims in `flagged_claims`. Set `confidence` (1-10) to how confident you are \ +that `filtered_text` now contains zero post-cutoff leakage. Set `clean` to \ +true only if you removed all identifiable violations.""" + + +async def _verify_no_leakage( + *, + text: str, + query: str, + cutoff_date: str, + verifier_model: str, + openai_base_url: str, + openai_api_key: str | None, +) -> _LeakageVerification: + """Judge a search result for post-cutoff claims via an independent verifier call. + + Uses a different model (by default) than the search call it's checking, + so the verifier does not share the same knowledge-attribution blind spot + that caused the leak in the first place. Never raises on a malformed + verifier response — a parse failure is treated as a non-clean verdict so + it consumes a retry attempt like any other rejection. + """ + import litellm # noqa: PLC0415 + from aieng.forecasting.methods.llm_processes._client import ( # noqa: PLC0415 + make_json_schema_response_format, + strip_markdown_fence, + ) + + model = verifier_model if verifier_model.startswith("openai/") else f"openai/{verifier_model}" + resp = await litellm.acompletion( + model=model, + api_base=openai_base_url, + api_key=openai_api_key, + messages=[ + {"role": "system", "content": _LEAKAGE_VERIFIER_INSTRUCTION}, + { + "role": "user", + "content": f"Original query: {query}\nCutoff date: {cutoff_date}\n\nSearch result to verify:\n{text}", + }, + ], + response_format=make_json_schema_response_format("LeakageVerification", _build_leakage_verification_schema()), + temperature=0.0, + max_tokens=2048, + timeout=60.0, + ) + raw = resp.choices[0].message.content or "{}" + try: + return _LeakageVerification.model_validate(json.loads(strip_markdown_fence(raw))) + except (json.JSONDecodeError, ValidationError): + logger.warning("Leakage verifier returned unparseable output; treating as non-clean: %r", raw[:200]) + return _LeakageVerification( + flagged_claims=["verifier response could not be parsed"], + filtered_text=text, + confidence=1, + clean=False, + ) + + def _build_search_tool( config: ContextRetrievalConfig, *, @@ -219,25 +347,25 @@ def _build_search_tool( the proxy with ``"tools": [{"googleSearch": {}}]`` so the model does server-side grounding and returns a synthesised answer plus source URLs extracted from ``choices[0].provider_specific_fields["grounding_metadata"]``. - """ - async def search_web(query: str, cutoff_date: str | None = None) -> str: - """Search the web and return a grounded summary with source URLs. + When a ``cutoff_date`` is supplied and ``config.enforce_cutoff`` is + ``True``, the raw result is passed through an independent leakage + verifier (:func:`_verify_no_leakage`) before being returned. On a flagged + result, the search is retried (up to ``config.verifier_max_attempts`` + times) with the previously flagged claims injected as explicit negative + feedback. If no attempt is verified clean, an explicit + ``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`` sentinel is returned instead of + potentially-leaky content. + """ - Args: - query: What to search for. - cutoff_date: ISO date (YYYY-MM-DD). When provided, only include - information published strictly before this date. + def _format_result(content: str, sources: list[str]) -> str: + if sources: + content += "\n\nSources:\n" + "\n".join(sources[:5]) + return content - Returns - ------- - A grounded summary of search results, with source URLs appended. - """ + async def _do_search(user_content: str) -> tuple[str, list[str]]: import litellm # noqa: PLC0415 - user_content = query - if cutoff_date and config.enforce_cutoff: - user_content += f"\n\nOnly include and cite information published strictly before {cutoff_date}." search_model = config.search_model if not search_model.startswith("openai/"): search_model = f"openai/{search_model}" @@ -260,9 +388,65 @@ async def search_web(query: str, cutoff_date: str | None = None) -> str: sources: list[str] = [ uri for c in gm.get("groundingChunks", []) if (uri := (c.get("web") or {}).get("uri")) is not None ] - if sources: - content += "\n\nSources:\n" + "\n".join(sources[:5]) - return content + return content, sources + + async def search_web(query: str, cutoff_date: str | None = None) -> str: + """Search the web and return a grounded summary with source URLs. + + Args: + query: What to search for. + cutoff_date: ISO date (YYYY-MM-DD). When provided, only include + information published strictly before this date. + + Returns + ------- + A grounded summary of search results, with source URLs appended. + When cutoff verification is enabled and cannot be satisfied + within the attempt budget, returns a ``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`` + sentinel instead of unverified content. + """ + needs_verification = bool(cutoff_date and config.enforce_cutoff) + if not needs_verification: + content, sources = await _do_search(query) + return _format_result(content, sources) + + negative_guidance = "" + for attempt in range(1, config.verifier_max_attempts + 1): + user_content = query + f"\n\nOnly include and cite information published strictly before {cutoff_date}." + if negative_guidance: + user_content += f"\n\n{negative_guidance}" + content, sources = await _do_search(user_content) + verdict = await _verify_no_leakage( + text=content, + query=query, + cutoff_date=cutoff_date, # type: ignore[arg-type] + verifier_model=config.verifier_model, + openai_base_url=openai_base_url, + openai_api_key=openai_api_key, + ) + logger.info( + "search_web verification attempt %d/%d: clean=%s confidence=%d flagged=%d", + attempt, + config.verifier_max_attempts, + verdict.clean, + verdict.confidence, + len(verdict.flagged_claims), + ) + if verdict.clean and verdict.confidence >= config.verifier_confidence_threshold: + return _format_result(verdict.filtered_text, sources) + logger.warning("search_web attempt %d flagged %d claim(s); retrying.", attempt, len(verdict.flagged_claims)) + negative_guidance = ( + f"Your previous search result may have included information published on or after " + f"{cutoff_date}. Do not repeat or rely on these claims:\n- " + + "\n- ".join(verdict.flagged_claims or ["(unspecified — be more conservative)"]) + ) + + logger.error("search_web exhausted %d attempts without a verified clean result.", config.verifier_max_attempts) + return ( + f"[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED] Could not verify search results as free of information " + f"published on or after {cutoff_date} after {config.verifier_max_attempts} attempts. " + "Treat this as no verified news context being available for this query." + ) return search_web diff --git a/aieng-forecasting/tests/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/test_agent_factory.py b/aieng-forecasting/tests/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/test_agent_factory.py index af9619bc..d97004cd 100644 --- a/aieng-forecasting/tests/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/test_agent_factory.py +++ b/aieng-forecasting/tests/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/test_agent_factory.py @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ """Tests for generic ADK agent configuration helpers.""" import inspect +import json from pathlib import Path from unittest.mock import AsyncMock, MagicMock, patch @@ -13,6 +14,7 @@ build_adk_agent, ) from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.outputs import ContinuousAgentForecastOutput +from aieng.forecasting.models import ADVANCED_MODEL, LITE_MODEL from google.adk.models.lite_llm import LiteLlm from pydantic import ValidationError @@ -353,3 +355,207 @@ async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] assert "https://example.com/wti" in result assert "https://example.com/opec" in result + + +class TestSearchToolLeakageVerification: + """search_web wraps grounded results in an independent leakage verifier.""" + + @staticmethod + def _search_response(content: str) -> MagicMock: + resp = MagicMock() + resp.choices[0].message.content = content + resp.choices[0].provider_specific_fields = {} + return resp + + @staticmethod + def _verify_response( + *, + clean: bool, + confidence: int, + filtered_text: str = "clean summary", + flagged_claims: list[str] | None = None, + ) -> MagicMock: + payload = { + "flagged_claims": flagged_claims or [], + "filtered_text": filtered_text, + "confidence": confidence, + "clean": clean, + } + resp = MagicMock() + resp.choices[0].message.content = json.dumps(payload) + resp.choices[0].provider_specific_fields = {} + return resp + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_immediate_accept_on_first_attempt(self) -> None: + """A clean, confident verdict on the first attempt is accepted without retry.""" + config = ContextRetrievalConfig(enabled=True, instruction="Search assistant.") + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + calls.append(kwargs) + if kwargs["model"] == f"openai/{config.verifier_model}": + return self._verify_response(clean=True, confidence=9, filtered_text="Clean summary.") + return self._search_response("Raw summary with a source.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + result = await tool(query="WTI price", cutoff_date="2024-01-15") + + assert len(calls) == 2 + assert result == "Clean summary." + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_retry_then_accept(self) -> None: + """A flagged first attempt retries with feedback and succeeds on the second.""" + config = ContextRetrievalConfig(enabled=True, instruction="Search assistant.") + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + verify_call_count = 0 + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + nonlocal verify_call_count + calls.append(kwargs) + if kwargs["model"] == f"openai/{config.verifier_model}": + verify_call_count += 1 + if verify_call_count == 1: + return self._verify_response( + clean=False, confidence=3, flagged_claims=["OPEC+ raised output in March 2025"] + ) + return self._verify_response(clean=True, confidence=9, filtered_text="Clean summary.") + return self._search_response("Raw summary with a source.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + result = await tool(query="WTI price", cutoff_date="2024-01-15") + + assert len(calls) == 4 + assert result == "Clean summary." + second_search_user_msg = next(m for m in calls[2]["messages"] if m["role"] == "user") + assert "OPEC+ raised output in March 2025" in second_search_user_msg["content"] + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_exhaustion_returns_sentinel(self) -> None: + """Never-clean verdicts return the failure sentinel, not risky content.""" + config = ContextRetrievalConfig(enabled=True, instruction="Search assistant.") + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + calls.append(kwargs) + if kwargs["model"] == f"openai/{config.verifier_model}": + return self._verify_response(clean=False, confidence=2, flagged_claims=["still leaking"]) + return self._search_response("Raw summary with a source.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + result = await tool(query="WTI price", cutoff_date="2024-01-15") + + assert len(calls) == config.verifier_max_attempts * 2 + assert result.startswith("[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]") + assert "2024-01-15" in result + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_verifier_skipped_when_no_cutoff_date(self) -> None: + """No cutoff_date means nothing to verify against — single search call only.""" + config = ContextRetrievalConfig(enabled=True, instruction="Search assistant.") + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + calls.append(kwargs) + return self._search_response("Raw summary.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + result = await tool(query="WTI price") + + assert len(calls) == 1 + assert result == "Raw summary." + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_verifier_skipped_when_enforce_cutoff_false(self) -> None: + """enforce_cutoff=False skips the verifier even when cutoff_date is passed.""" + config = ContextRetrievalConfig(enabled=True, instruction="Search assistant.", enforce_cutoff=False) + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + calls.append(kwargs) + return self._search_response("Raw summary.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + result = await tool(query="WTI price", cutoff_date="2024-01-15") + + assert len(calls) == 1 + assert result == "Raw summary." + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_verifier_uses_configured_model_default(self) -> None: + """The verifier call defaults to ADVANCED_MODEL, distinct from search_model.""" + config = ContextRetrievalConfig(enabled=True, instruction="Search assistant.") + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + calls.append(kwargs) + if kwargs["model"] == f"openai/{config.verifier_model}": + return self._verify_response(clean=True, confidence=9, filtered_text="Clean.") + return self._search_response("Raw.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + await tool(query="WTI price", cutoff_date="2024-01-15") + + models_used = {c["model"] for c in calls} + assert f"openai/{ADVANCED_MODEL}" in models_used + assert f"openai/{LITE_MODEL}" in models_used + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_verifier_confidence_threshold_is_configurable(self) -> None: + """Confidence 6 is rejected at threshold=8, accepted at threshold=5.""" + + async def _run(threshold: int) -> tuple[str, int]: + config = ContextRetrievalConfig( + enabled=True, + instruction="Search assistant.", + verifier_confidence_threshold=threshold, + ) + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + calls.append(kwargs) + if kwargs["model"] == f"openai/{config.verifier_model}": + return self._verify_response(clean=True, confidence=6, filtered_text="Borderline.") + return self._search_response("Raw.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + result = await tool(query="WTI price", cutoff_date="2024-01-15") + return result, len(calls) + + rejected_result, rejected_calls = await _run(threshold=8) + accepted_result, accepted_calls = await _run(threshold=5) + + assert rejected_result.startswith("[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]") + assert rejected_calls == 6 # exhausted the default 3 attempts + assert accepted_result == "Borderline." + assert accepted_calls == 2 # accepted on the first attempt + + @pytest.mark.asyncio + async def test_verifier_parse_failure_is_treated_as_non_clean(self) -> None: + """A malformed verifier response consumes a retry attempt instead of raising.""" + config = ContextRetrievalConfig(enabled=True, instruction="Search assistant.") + tool = _build_search_tool(config, openai_base_url="https://proxy.example.com/v1", openai_api_key="test-key") + calls: list[dict] = [] + + async def _fake_acompletion(**kwargs): # type: ignore[override] + calls.append(kwargs) + if kwargs["model"] == f"openai/{config.verifier_model}": + resp = MagicMock() + resp.choices[0].message.content = "not json at all" + resp.choices[0].provider_specific_fields = {} + return resp + return self._search_response("Raw.") + + with patch("litellm.acompletion", new=AsyncMock(side_effect=_fake_acompletion)): + result = await tool(query="WTI price", cutoff_date="2024-01-15") + + assert len(calls) == config.verifier_max_attempts * 2 + assert result.startswith("[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]") diff --git a/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/analyst_agent/agent.py b/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/analyst_agent/agent.py index bb210948..69598165 100644 --- a/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/analyst_agent/agent.py +++ b/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/analyst_agent/agent.py @@ -116,7 +116,11 @@ def _build_boc_analyst_instruction() -> str: "strongly shape which tail outcome is plausible.\n" "4. Use ONLY information available on or before `as_of`. Do not use " "knowledge of what the Bank actually decided on or after " - "`announcement_date`, even if you remember it.\n" + "`announcement_date`, even if you remember it. If `search_web` returns a " + "result beginning with `[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`, treat it as no " + "verified news for that query — proceed on the other signals in your " + "payload and note the gap, never filling it from your own background " + "knowledge.\n" "5. Document your reasoning in `reasoning` and list the decisive inputs " "in `key_signals` — these are compared against the Bank's own published " "rationale by a downstream evaluator, so be specific.\n\n" @@ -147,7 +151,16 @@ def _build_boc_analyst_instruction() -> str: Ground your summary in the search results you actually retrieve. \ When a cutoff date is specified, do not report or speculate about events \ -that occurred after that date.\ +that occurred after that date. + +Before finalizing your summary, reason step by step: (1) for each candidate \ +fact, judge its actual recency from the substance of the result itself, \ +never from a source's claimed publish date or byline timestamp — those are \ +frequently stale or updated after original publication; (2) discard \ +anything you cannot confidently place before the cutoff date; (3) only then \ +write your summary. Do not supplement the search results with your own \ +background/training knowledge — if the results are insufficient, say so \ +explicitly rather than filling gaps from memory.\ """ diff --git a/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/agent.py b/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/agent.py index 19912cb0..51e8e1cd 100644 --- a/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/agent.py +++ b/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/agent.py @@ -100,7 +100,16 @@ def _build_starter_instruction() -> str: and macro shocks relevant to Canada (oil, exchange rate, US policy, trade). Ground every claim in the search results you actually retrieve. When a cutoff -date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it.\ +date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it. + +Before finalizing your summary, reason step by step: (1) for each candidate \ +fact, judge its actual recency from the substance of the result itself, \ +never from a source's claimed publish date or byline timestamp — those are \ +frequently stale or updated after original publication; (2) discard \ +anything you cannot confidently place before the cutoff date; (3) only then \ +write your summary. Do not supplement the search results with your own \ +background/training knowledge — if the results are insufficient, say so \ +explicitly rather than filling gaps from memory.\ """ diff --git a/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md b/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md index d9fcac43..ec9c0ca8 100644 --- a/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md +++ b/implementations/boc_rate_decisions/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md @@ -17,6 +17,12 @@ Always pass `cutoff_date` equal to the `as_of` date in your payload. It is the temporal fence that keeps post-origin information out of a historical forecast. A forecast that "knew" what happened after `as_of` is not a forecast. +`search_web` runs an independent verifier on every result and returns +`[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]` instead of content it couldn't confirm as +pre-cutoff. Treat that as no verified news for the query — proceed on your +other signals and say so, never filling the gap from your own background +knowledge. + ## How to search - **Search before you forecast, not after.** Gather context first, then reason. diff --git a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/04_systematic_backtest_eval.ipynb b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/04_systematic_backtest_eval.ipynb index 15dd6c72..dd126045 100644 --- a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/04_systematic_backtest_eval.ipynb +++ b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/04_systematic_backtest_eval.ipynb @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": 1, "id": "4760f015", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -193,7 +193,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 8, + "execution_count": 2, "id": "2f52a6fe", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -333,7 +333,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 9, + "execution_count": null, "id": "deae96a9", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -350,1328 +350,409 @@ " LightGBM + cov ✓\n", " LLMP-Sampled (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview) ✓\n", " LLMP-Sampled (gemini-3.5-flash) ✓\n", - " LLMP-Sampled + cov (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview) ✓\n" - ] - }, - { - "name": "stderr", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "Failed to export span batch code: None, reason: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='us.cloud.langfuse.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=4.999990940093994)\n" - ] - }, - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - " LLMP-Sampled + cov (gemini-3.5-flash) ✓\n" + " LLMP-Sampled + cov (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview) ✓\n", + " LLMP-Sampled + cov (gemini-3.5-flash) ✓\n", + " LLMP-Grid (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview) ✓\n", + " LLMP-Grid (gemini-3.5-flash) ✓\n", + " News Agent (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview) ✓\n" ] }, { "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752560.213777041), (, 752560.647323041), (, 752560.799167208)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752562.873946083), (, 752563.00918925), (, 752563.075328666)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752565.023874208), (, 752565.027452291), (, 752565.051382041)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752566.851667958), (, 752566.922000166), (, 752567.022794208)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752568.870130541), (, 752568.937862958), (, 752569.041912125)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752573.076007791), (, 752573.163518083), (, 752573.213012416)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752575.058452625), (, 752575.062130916), (, 752575.067252041)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752576.865883), (, 752576.901488875), (, 752576.991081375)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752578.73019175), (, 752578.866843125), (, 752578.903154)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752580.689480791), (, 752580.736072458), (, 752580.861964583)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752585.400805875), (, 752585.409352791), (, 752585.499864166)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752587.350088333), (, 752587.36412), (, 752587.447975916)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752589.22676775), (, 752589.243004541), (, 752589.315883166)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752591.174050416), (, 752591.221462083), (, 752591.350980083)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752593.059092), (, 752593.21145425), (, 752593.333180375)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752596.971875458), (, 752597.109406666), (, 752597.228887458)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752600.996911166), (, 752601.09532), (, 752601.193937416)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752602.709531875), (, 752602.77883225), (, 752602.810979333)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752604.213728375), (, 752604.448550083), (, 752604.502018416)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752570.757104291), (, 752570.962687625), (, 752570.965926458)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752583.543302791), (, 752583.59231375), (, 752583.625144958)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752595.044528875), (, 752595.179304208), (, 752595.211374125)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752606.402679791), (, 752606.531690083), (, 752606.547487916)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752608.052034583), (, 752608.135804875), (, 752608.2446125)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752609.839064916), (, 752609.853683416), (, 752609.939426916)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752611.536170375), (, 752611.6195905), (, 752611.685677125)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752613.254433416), (, 752613.427181875), (, 752613.494840916)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752615.104240875), (, 752615.128661208), (, 752615.233201083)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752617.656768291), (, 752617.660498125), (, 752617.682200458)])']\n", - "connector: \n" + "Node execution failed with exception\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 930, in acompletion\n", + " headers, response = await self.make_openai_chat_completion_request(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/logging_utils.py\", line 297, in async_wrapper\n", + " result = await func(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 461, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 438, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " await openai_aclient.chat.completions.with_raw_response.create(\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_legacy_response.py\", line 384, in wrapped\n", + " return cast(LegacyAPIResponse[R], await func(*args, **kwargs))\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/resources/chat/completions/completions.py\", line 2739, in create\n", + " return await self._post(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1931, in post\n", + " return await self.request(cast_to, opts, stream=stream, stream_cls=stream_cls)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1716, in request\n", + " raise self._make_status_error_from_response(err.response) from None\n", + "openai.BadRequestError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 639, in acompletion\n", + " response = await init_response\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 990, in acompletion\n", + " raise OpenAIError(\n", + "litellm.llms.openai.common_utils.OpenAIError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 135, in run\n", + " await self._execute_node(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 255, in _execute_node\n", + " await self._run_node_loop(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 269, in _run_node_loop\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_base_node.py\", line 217, in run\n", + " async for item in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 559, in _run_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_llm_agent_wrapper.py\", line 383, in run_llm_agent_as_node\n", + " async for event in run_iter:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openinference/instrumentation/google_adk/_wrappers.py\", line 188, in __aiter__\n", + " async for event in self.__wrapped__:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/base_agent.py\", line 305, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 515, in _run_async_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 889, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 968, in _run_one_step_async\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1362, in _call_llm_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1340, in _call_llm_with_tracing\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1423, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 408, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " raise model_error\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 385, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 2568, in generate_content_async\n", + " response = await self.llm_client.acompletion(**completion_args)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 609, in acompletion\n", + " return await acompletion(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 2100, in wrapper_async\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 1899, in wrapper_async\n", + " result = await original_function(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 659, in acompletion\n", + " raise exception_type(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 2473, in exception_type\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 544, in exception_type\n", + " raise BadRequestError(\n", + "litellm.exceptions.BadRequestError: litellm.BadRequestError: OpenAIException - Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "Root node wti_analyst_news failed.\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 930, in acompletion\n", + " headers, response = await self.make_openai_chat_completion_request(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/logging_utils.py\", line 297, in async_wrapper\n", + " result = await func(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 461, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 438, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " await openai_aclient.chat.completions.with_raw_response.create(\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_legacy_response.py\", line 384, in wrapped\n", + " return cast(LegacyAPIResponse[R], await func(*args, **kwargs))\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/resources/chat/completions/completions.py\", line 2739, in create\n", + " return await self._post(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1931, in post\n", + " return await self.request(cast_to, opts, stream=stream, stream_cls=stream_cls)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1716, in request\n", + " raise self._make_status_error_from_response(err.response) from None\n", + "openai.BadRequestError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 639, in acompletion\n", + " response = await init_response\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 990, in acompletion\n", + " raise OpenAIError(\n", + "litellm.llms.openai.common_utils.OpenAIError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/runners.py\", line 815, in _cleanup_root_task\n", + " await task\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/runners.py\", line 560, in _drive_root_node\n", + " raise ctx.error\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 135, in run\n", + " await self._execute_node(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 255, in _execute_node\n", + " await self._run_node_loop(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 269, in _run_node_loop\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_base_node.py\", line 217, in run\n", + " async for item in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 559, in _run_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_llm_agent_wrapper.py\", line 383, in run_llm_agent_as_node\n", + " async for event in run_iter:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openinference/instrumentation/google_adk/_wrappers.py\", line 188, in __aiter__\n", + " async for event in self.__wrapped__:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/base_agent.py\", line 305, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 515, in _run_async_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 889, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 968, in _run_one_step_async\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1362, in _call_llm_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1340, in _call_llm_with_tracing\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1423, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 408, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " raise model_error\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 385, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 2568, in generate_content_async\n", + " response = await self.llm_client.acompletion(**completion_args)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 609, in acompletion\n", + " return await acompletion(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 2100, in wrapper_async\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 1899, in wrapper_async\n", + " result = await original_function(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 659, in acompletion\n", + " raise exception_type(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 2473, in exception_type\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 544, in exception_type\n", + " raise BadRequestError(\n", + "litellm.exceptions.BadRequestError: litellm.BadRequestError: OpenAIException - Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "predict() failed at origin 2025-01-06 (attempt 1/3): litellm.BadRequestError: OpenAIException - Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'} — retrying in 2s\n" ] }, { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - " LLMP-Grid (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview) ✓\n" + "\n", + "\u001b[1;31mGive Feedback / Get Help: https://github.com/BerriAI/litellm/issues/new\u001b[0m\n", + "LiteLLM.Info: If you need to debug this error, use `litellm._turn_on_debug()'.\n", + "\n" ] }, { "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752619.305721916), (, 752619.314451791), (, 752619.40523175)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752620.973051041), (, 752621.059973083), (, 752621.06471025)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752622.575834458), (, 752622.78842225), (, 752622.843562583)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752624.459984083), (, 752624.581992791), (, 752624.584167375)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752626.245899541), (, 752626.262295208), (, 752626.420947625)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752627.996943083), (, 752628.033649458), (, 752628.123443708)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752630.022792041), (, 752630.039414625), (, 752630.35643325)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752632.193563208), (, 752632.416964666), (, 752632.434009208)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752634.160928083), (, 752634.173356916), (, 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752693.030053875)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752695.891041375), (, 752696.302340291), (, 752696.826051416)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752699.425734583), (, 752699.976359), (, 752700.09799725)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752703.318070333), (, 752703.840320541), (, 752703.997587666)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752711.840264), (, 752711.843805041), (, 752711.854173541)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752714.835185583), (, 752715.17986175), (, 752715.290335708)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752718.660366291), (, 752718.74682225), (, 752718.796090041)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752721.690244), (, 752721.741536166), (, 752722.515448958)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752725.652256583), (, 752725.907894833), (, 752726.061499041)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752732.676571791), (, 752733.2520895), (, 752733.69661125)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752736.539257458), (, 752737.281439166), (, 752737.708726125)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752740.633645125), (, 752740.947845791), (, 752741.251655083)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752744.641530791), (, 752744.654618916), (, 752745.167653208)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752684.632275666), (, 752684.635919833), (, 752685.138092375)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752707.914591666), (, 752707.998761916), (, 752708.372197833)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752659.573910666), (, 752659.799610708), (, 752661.679157)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752728.909305416), (, 752729.234995125), (, 752729.784602291)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752749.262486041), (, 752749.3223485), (, 752749.357170041)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752751.779003875), (, 752752.108067166), (, 752753.470615833)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752757.433468125), (, 752757.437213916), (, 752757.44239425)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752760.092305541), (, 752760.1651695), (, 752761.166221)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752764.934794333), (, 752765.808651291), (, 752766.75553075)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752769.824826833), (, 752770.030950083), (, 752770.15203425)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752773.977118625), (, 752774.049431), (, 752774.257231625)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752777.727116083), (, 752778.390531416), (, 752778.417952291)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752781.832202416), (, 752782.215474666), (, 752782.726982125)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752785.37531225), (, 752785.569157208), (, 752785.89902475)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752788.870763083), (, 752788.874377291), (, 752789.018262958)])']\n", - "connector: \n" + "Node execution failed with exception\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 930, in acompletion\n", + " headers, response = await self.make_openai_chat_completion_request(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/logging_utils.py\", line 297, in async_wrapper\n", + " result = await func(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 461, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 438, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " await openai_aclient.chat.completions.with_raw_response.create(\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_legacy_response.py\", line 384, in wrapped\n", + " return cast(LegacyAPIResponse[R], await func(*args, **kwargs))\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/resources/chat/completions/completions.py\", line 2739, in create\n", + " return await self._post(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1931, in post\n", + " return await self.request(cast_to, opts, stream=stream, stream_cls=stream_cls)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1716, in request\n", + " raise self._make_status_error_from_response(err.response) from None\n", + "openai.BadRequestError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 639, in acompletion\n", + " response = await init_response\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 990, in acompletion\n", + " raise OpenAIError(\n", + "litellm.llms.openai.common_utils.OpenAIError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 135, in run\n", + " await self._execute_node(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 255, in _execute_node\n", + " await self._run_node_loop(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 269, in _run_node_loop\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_base_node.py\", line 217, in run\n", + " async for item in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 559, in _run_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_llm_agent_wrapper.py\", line 383, in run_llm_agent_as_node\n", + " async for event in run_iter:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openinference/instrumentation/google_adk/_wrappers.py\", line 188, in __aiter__\n", + " async for event in self.__wrapped__:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/base_agent.py\", line 305, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 515, in _run_async_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 889, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 968, in _run_one_step_async\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1362, in _call_llm_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1340, in _call_llm_with_tracing\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1423, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 408, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " raise model_error\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 385, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 2568, in generate_content_async\n", + " response = await self.llm_client.acompletion(**completion_args)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 609, in acompletion\n", + " return await acompletion(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 2100, in wrapper_async\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 1899, in wrapper_async\n", + " result = await original_function(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 659, in acompletion\n", + " raise exception_type(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 2473, in exception_type\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 544, in exception_type\n", + " raise BadRequestError(\n", + "litellm.exceptions.BadRequestError: litellm.BadRequestError: OpenAIException - Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "Root node wti_analyst_news failed.\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 930, in acompletion\n", + " headers, response = await self.make_openai_chat_completion_request(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/logging_utils.py\", line 297, in async_wrapper\n", + " result = await func(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 461, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 438, in make_openai_chat_completion_request\n", + " await openai_aclient.chat.completions.with_raw_response.create(\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_legacy_response.py\", line 384, in wrapped\n", + " return cast(LegacyAPIResponse[R], await func(*args, **kwargs))\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/resources/chat/completions/completions.py\", line 2739, in create\n", + " return await self._post(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1931, in post\n", + " return await self.request(cast_to, opts, stream=stream, stream_cls=stream_cls)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openai/_base_client.py\", line 1716, in request\n", + " raise self._make_status_error_from_response(err.response) from None\n", + "openai.BadRequestError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 639, in acompletion\n", + " response = await init_response\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/llms/openai/openai.py\", line 990, in acompletion\n", + " raise OpenAIError(\n", + "litellm.llms.openai.common_utils.OpenAIError: Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "\n", + "During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n", + "\n", + "Traceback (most recent call last):\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/runners.py\", line 815, in _cleanup_root_task\n", + " await task\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/runners.py\", line 560, in _drive_root_node\n", + " raise ctx.error\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 135, in run\n", + " await self._execute_node(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 255, in _execute_node\n", + " await self._run_node_loop(ctx, node_input)\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_node_runner.py\", line 269, in _run_node_loop\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_base_node.py\", line 217, in run\n", + " async for item in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 559, in _run_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/workflow/_llm_agent_wrapper.py\", line 383, in run_llm_agent_as_node\n", + " async for event in run_iter:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/openinference/instrumentation/google_adk/_wrappers.py\", line 188, in __aiter__\n", + " async for event in self.__wrapped__:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/base_agent.py\", line 305, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/agents/llm_agent.py\", line 515, in _run_async_impl\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 889, in run_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 968, in _run_one_step_async\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1362, in _call_llm_async\n", + " async for event in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1340, in _call_llm_with_tracing\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 1423, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 408, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " raise model_error\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/flows/llm_flows/base_llm_flow.py\", line 385, in _run_and_handle_error\n", + " async for llm_response in agen:\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 2568, in generate_content_async\n", + " response = await self.llm_client.acompletion(**completion_args)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/google/adk/models/lite_llm.py\", line 609, in acompletion\n", + " return await acompletion(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 2100, in wrapper_async\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/utils.py\", line 1899, in wrapper_async\n", + " result = await original_function(*args, **kwargs)\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/main.py\", line 659, in acompletion\n", + " raise exception_type(\n", + " ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 2473, in exception_type\n", + " raise e\n", + " File \"/Users/ethanjackson/agentic-forecasting/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/litellm/litellm_core_utils/exception_mapping_utils.py\", line 544, in exception_type\n", + " raise BadRequestError(\n", + "litellm.exceptions.BadRequestError: litellm.BadRequestError: OpenAIException - Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'}\n", + "predict() failed at origin 2025-05-05 (attempt 1/3): litellm.BadRequestError: OpenAIException - Error code: 400 - {'detail': '{\\n \"error\": {\\n \"code\": 400,\\n \"message\": \"* GenerateContentRequest.contents[5].parts[0].function_response.name: Name cannot be empty.\\\\n\",\\n \"status\": \"INVALID_ARGUMENT\"\\n }\\n}\\n'} — retrying in 2s\n" ] }, { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - " LLMP-Grid (gemini-3.5-flash) ✓\n" - ] - }, - { - "name": "stderr", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752792.128774166), (, 752792.251601666), (, 752793.068470166)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752796.235022083), (, 752796.309410083), (, 752796.844857916)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752799.711894166), (, 752799.799146083), (, 752801.25898225)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Unclosed client session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 752804.053641125), (, 752805.365178916), (, 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session\n", - "client_session: \n", - "Unclosed connector\n", - "connections: ['deque([(, 754315.441001333)])']\n", - "connector: \n", - "Raw agent response (schema validation failed):\n", "\n", - "predict() failed at origin 2025-09-15 (attempt 1/3): Expecting value: line 1 column 1 (char 0) — retrying in 2s\n" - ] - }, - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - " News Agent (gemini-3.5-flash) ✓\n", - "\n", - "All 2025 backtests complete.\n" + "\u001b[1;31mGive Feedback / Get Help: https://github.com/BerriAI/litellm/issues/new\u001b[0m\n", + "LiteLLM.Info: If you need to debug this error, use `litellm._turn_on_debug()'.\n", + "\n" ] } ], @@ -1708,7 +789,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": null, "id": "e788448d", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -2593,7 +1674,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": null, "id": "496dc416", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -2644,7 +1725,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": null, "id": "e73f27fb", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -3228,7 +2309,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": null, "id": "a49c24d5", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -3267,7 +2348,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": null, "id": "31907f29", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -3348,7 +2429,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 15, + "execution_count": null, "id": "9970844b", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -3406,7 +2487,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": null, "id": "099a188a", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -4409,7 +3490,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": null, "id": "c0f3f7b1", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -5338,7 +4419,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": null, "id": "ba384e79", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -11829,7 +10910,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": null, "id": "f7c42d62", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ @@ -11870,7 +10951,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": null, "id": "fe4b4d17", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ diff --git a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/adaptive_agent/agent.py b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/adaptive_agent/agent.py index e5d9f1fd..ff4efebc 100644 --- a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/adaptive_agent/agent.py +++ b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/adaptive_agent/agent.py @@ -178,6 +178,10 @@ def _build_adaptive_analyst_instruction() -> str: "## Temporal discipline\n\n" "Every forecast is anchored to an `as_of` date. Never use information beyond " "that date — in web search, code analysis, or reasoning.\n\n" + "If `search_web` returns a result beginning with `[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`, " + "treat it as no verified news context for that query. Do not use your own " + "background knowledge to fill the gap — proceed on price history and other " + "available signals only, and note the gap in your reasoning.\n\n" "When fetching data inside `run_code`, always pass `end=as_of_date` to " "yfinance to enforce the temporal cutoff — for example:\n\n" "```python\nraw = ticker.history(start='2004-01-01', end='2026-02-16', " @@ -216,7 +220,16 @@ def _build_adaptive_analyst_instruction() -> str: Ground your summary in the search results you actually retrieve. \ When a cutoff date is specified, do not report or speculate about events \ -that occurred after that date.\ +that occurred after that date. + +Before finalizing your summary, reason step by step: (1) for each candidate \ +fact, judge its actual recency from the substance of the result itself, \ +never from a source's claimed publish date or byline timestamp — those are \ +frequently stale or updated after original publication; (2) discard \ +anything you cannot confidently place before the cutoff date; (3) only then \ +write your summary. Do not supplement the search results with your own \ +background/training knowledge — if the results are insufficient, say so \ +explicitly rather than filling gaps from memory.\ """ diff --git a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/analyst_agent/agent.py b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/analyst_agent/agent.py index cbdfe5c2..77faf3e9 100644 --- a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/analyst_agent/agent.py +++ b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/analyst_agent/agent.py @@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ ContextRetrievalConfig, ) from aieng.forecasting.methods.numerical.darts_arima import DartsAutoARIMAPredictor -from aieng.forecasting.models import LITE_MODEL +from aieng.forecasting.models import ADVANCED_MODEL, LITE_MODEL from energy_oil_forecasting.data import WTI_SERIES_ID, build_wti_service from pydantic import BaseModel @@ -126,6 +126,11 @@ def _build_wti_analyst_instruction() -> str: "date from the payload). The ``cutoff_date`` MUST always equal ``as_of`` — " "this is the temporal fence that prevents post-origin information from " "contaminating historical backtests.\n\n" + "If ``search_web`` returns a result beginning with " + "``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]``, treat it as no verified news context for " + "that query. Do not use your own background knowledge to fill the gap or " + "speculate about what the news might have said — proceed with price-history " + "and other available signals only, and note the gap in your rationale.\n\n" "Recommended queries (call ``search_web`` once per topic):\n" '- ``search_web(query="WTI crude oil price trend and OPEC+ supply decisions", cutoff_date=)``\n' '- ``search_web(query="Persian Gulf geopolitical risk shipping lane disruptions", cutoff_date=)``\n' @@ -155,7 +160,16 @@ def _build_wti_analyst_instruction() -> str: Ground your summary in the search results you actually retrieve. \ When a cutoff date is specified, do not report or speculate about events \ -that occurred after that date.\ +that occurred after that date. + +Before finalizing your summary, reason step by step: (1) for each candidate \ +fact, judge its actual recency from the substance of the result itself, \ +never from a source's claimed publish date or byline timestamp — those are \ +frequently stale or updated after original publication; (2) discard \ +anything you cannot confidently place before the cutoff date; (3) only then \ +write your summary. Do not supplement the search results with your own \ +background/training knowledge — if the results are insufficient, say so \ +explicitly rather than filling gaps from memory.\ """ # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -359,6 +373,9 @@ def build_wti_basic_config(model: str = LITE_MODEL) -> AgentConfig: def build_wti_multitask_news_config( model: str = LITE_MODEL, search_model: str = LITE_MODEL, + verifier_model: str = ADVANCED_MODEL, + verifier_max_attempts: int = 3, + verifier_confidence_threshold: int = 8, ) -> AgentConfig: """News-grounded config for the one-agent-three-tasks demo (NB3). @@ -373,6 +390,16 @@ def build_wti_multitask_news_config( Model for the context-retrieval (web-search) sub-tool. Defaults to the lite model (``gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview``) independently of ``model`` so that Gemini handles Google Search even when the analyst uses a different provider. + verifier_model : str + Model for the independent temporal-leakage verifier that audits each + ``search_web`` result against ``cutoff_date`` before it is returned. + Defaults to the advanced model so it doesn't share ``search_model``'s + blind spots. + verifier_max_attempts : int + Maximum search-then-verify attempts before giving up and returning + the ``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`` sentinel. + verifier_confidence_threshold : int + Minimum verifier confidence (1-10) required to accept a result. """ return AgentConfig( name="wti_analyst_multitask", @@ -382,6 +409,9 @@ def build_wti_multitask_news_config( enabled=True, instruction=_WTI_CONTEXT_RETRIEVAL_INSTRUCTION, search_model=search_model, + verifier_model=verifier_model, + verifier_max_attempts=verifier_max_attempts, + verifier_confidence_threshold=verifier_confidence_threshold, ), ) @@ -389,12 +419,17 @@ def build_wti_multitask_news_config( def build_wti_news_config( model: str = LITE_MODEL, search_model: str = LITE_MODEL, + verifier_model: str = ADVANCED_MODEL, + verifier_max_attempts: int = 3, + verifier_confidence_threshold: int = 8, ) -> AgentConfig: """Build an :class:`AgentConfig` with bounded Google Search. Wires a :class:`~aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.agent_factory.ContextRetrievalConfig` sub-agent that enforces a temporal cutoff on every search call, preventing - future information from contaminating historical backtests. + future information from contaminating historical backtests. An + independent verifier call audits each search result against the cutoff + before it reaches the analyst (see :class:`ContextRetrievalConfig`). Parameters ---------- @@ -404,6 +439,16 @@ def build_wti_news_config( Model for the context-retrieval (web-search) sub-tool. Defaults to the lite model (``gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview``) independently of ``model`` so that Gemini handles Google Search even when the analyst uses a different provider. + verifier_model : str + Model for the independent temporal-leakage verifier that audits each + ``search_web`` result against ``cutoff_date`` before it is returned. + Defaults to the advanced model so it doesn't share ``search_model``'s + blind spots. + verifier_max_attempts : int + Maximum search-then-verify attempts before giving up and returning + the ``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`` sentinel. + verifier_confidence_threshold : int + Minimum verifier confidence (1-10) required to accept a result. Returns ------- @@ -417,6 +462,9 @@ def build_wti_news_config( enabled=True, instruction=_WTI_CONTEXT_RETRIEVAL_INSTRUCTION, search_model=search_model, + verifier_model=verifier_model, + verifier_max_attempts=verifier_max_attempts, + verifier_confidence_threshold=verifier_confidence_threshold, ), ) @@ -425,6 +473,9 @@ def build_wti_code_exec_config( model: str = LITE_MODEL, search_model: str = LITE_MODEL, max_output_tokens: int = 16_384, + verifier_model: str = ADVANCED_MODEL, + verifier_max_attempts: int = 3, + verifier_confidence_threshold: int = 8, ) -> AgentConfig: """Build an :class:`AgentConfig` with E2B code execution and forecasting skills. @@ -449,6 +500,16 @@ def build_wti_code_exec_config( LiteLLM's OpenAI-compatible endpoint default of 4096, which is not enough for Claude to write a complete ``run_code`` Python script in a single function call — causing repeated retries with empty arguments. + verifier_model : str + Model for the independent temporal-leakage verifier that audits each + ``search_web`` result against ``cutoff_date`` before it is returned. + Defaults to the advanced model so it doesn't share ``search_model``'s + blind spots. + verifier_max_attempts : int + Maximum search-then-verify attempts before giving up and returning + the ``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`` sentinel. + verifier_confidence_threshold : int + Minimum verifier confidence (1-10) required to accept a result. Returns ------- @@ -463,6 +524,9 @@ def build_wti_code_exec_config( enabled=True, instruction=_WTI_CONTEXT_RETRIEVAL_INSTRUCTION, search_model=search_model, + verifier_model=verifier_model, + verifier_max_attempts=verifier_max_attempts, + verifier_confidence_threshold=verifier_confidence_threshold, ), code_execution=CodeExecutionConfig(enabled=True), skills_dirs=[ @@ -478,6 +542,9 @@ def build_wti_tool_config( *, data_service: DataService | None = None, num_samples: int = 200, + verifier_model: str = ADVANCED_MODEL, + verifier_max_attempts: int = 3, + verifier_confidence_threshold: int = 8, ) -> AgentConfig: """Build an :class:`AgentConfig` with a conventional statistical forecast tool. @@ -505,6 +572,16 @@ def build_wti_tool_config( num_samples : int, default=200 Monte Carlo sample count for AutoARIMA. Kept modest to bound agent latency, since AutoARIMA can be slow per origin. + verifier_model : str + Model for the independent temporal-leakage verifier that audits each + ``search_web`` result against ``cutoff_date`` before it is returned. + Defaults to the advanced model so it doesn't share ``search_model``'s + blind spots. + verifier_max_attempts : int + Maximum search-then-verify attempts before giving up and returning + the ``[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]`` sentinel. + verifier_confidence_threshold : int + Minimum verifier confidence (1-10) required to accept a result. Returns ------- @@ -521,6 +598,9 @@ def build_wti_tool_config( enabled=True, instruction=_WTI_CONTEXT_RETRIEVAL_INSTRUCTION, search_model=search_model, + verifier_model=verifier_model, + verifier_max_attempts=verifier_max_attempts, + verifier_confidence_threshold=verifier_confidence_threshold, ), function_tools=[forecast_tool.as_function_tool()], ) diff --git a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/data/predictions/energy_oil_backtest/agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous__wti_oil_price_forecast.yaml b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/data/predictions/energy_oil_backtest/agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous__wti_oil_price_forecast.yaml new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f19c176c --- /dev/null +++ b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/data/predictions/energy_oil_backtest/agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous__wti_oil_price_forecast.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,4878 @@ +spec: + task: + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + target_series_id: wti_crude_oil_price + horizons: + - 5 + - 10 + - 21 + frequency: B + description: 'WTI Crude Oil continuous front-month futures Close price (yfinance + symbol: CL=F), projected 5, 10, and 21 trading days ahead.' + payload_type: continuous + categories: null + resolution_fn: observed_value_at_resolution_timestamp + start: '2025-01-06T00:00:00' + end: '2025-12-22T00:00:00' + stride: 5 + origin_dates: null + warmup: 250 + description: Weekly rolling backtest in 2025 for daily WTI crude oil price forecasting. + Evaluates trajectory forecasts (5, 10, 21 business days) with CRPS/MAE and binary + up-shock forecasts (climb > $5 in 5 business days) with Brier Score. Used to select + the top contender models. +predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous +predictions: +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:00.967563' + as_of: '2025-01-06T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-01-13T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 74.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 71.5 + '0.1': 72.1 + '0.2': 72.8 + '0.3': 73.4 + '0.4': 73.8 + '0.5': 74.2 + '0.6': 74.6 + '0.7': 75.1 + '0.8': 75.7 + '0.9': 76.5 + '0.95': 77.2 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for January 2025 is defined by a tension between geopolitical + risk (upward pressure) and persistent macroeconomic concerns/non-OPEC+ supply + growth (downward pressure). My model incorporates a slow consolidation from + the late-December price floor. Key assumptions include stable, disciplined output + from OPEC+ and no major escalations that would result in a total blockade of + key transit chokepoints. + horizon_rationale: Short-term momentum is slightly bullish following the year-end + recovery to $73.96. Geopolitical risk premiums remain in place due to Middle + East tensions. Market is consolidating recent gains while waiting for clearer + signals on OPEC+ production discipline for Q1 2025. + langfuse_trace_id: 68b0c7382b4a449c4d86600ec1ed9307 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/68b0c7382b4a449c4d86600ec1ed9307 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:00.967563' + as_of: '2025-01-06T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-04T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 75.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 69.5 + '0.1': 70.5 + '0.2': 71.8 + '0.3': 72.8 + '0.4': 74.0 + '0.5': 75.0 + '0.6': 76.2 + '0.7': 77.5 + '0.8': 78.8 + '0.9': 80.2 + '0.95': 81.5 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for January 2025 is defined by a tension between geopolitical + risk (upward pressure) and persistent macroeconomic concerns/non-OPEC+ supply + growth (downward pressure). My model incorporates a slow consolidation from + the late-December price floor. Key assumptions include stable, disciplined output + from OPEC+ and no major escalations that would result in a total blockade of + key transit chokepoints. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the impact of winter heating demand + may moderate. The forecast reflects a balanced view where ongoing OPEC+ supply + management limits downside, but macro concerns regarding global growth and potential + increases in US non-OPEC+ output cap the upside. + langfuse_trace_id: 68b0c7382b4a449c4d86600ec1ed9307 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/68b0c7382b4a449c4d86600ec1ed9307 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:13.904697' + as_of: '2025-01-13T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-01-27T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 77.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 73.8 + '0.1': 74.6 + '0.2': 75.5 + '0.3': 76.4 + '0.4': 77.1 + '0.5': 77.8 + '0.6': 78.5 + '0.7': 79.2 + '0.8': 80.1 + '0.9': 81.2 + '0.95': 82.0 + metadata: + rationale: As of Jan 13, 2025, WTI prices are elevated due to new US sanctions + and cold weather demand. The market is caught between supply-side risk premiums + (geopolitics/sanctions) and fundamental projections of persistent H1 2025 supply + surpluses. The SPR replenishment program provides a soft price floor. + horizon_rationale: Over the 10-day horizon, the risk premium associated with Middle + East geopolitical tensions and sanction enforcement remains elevated. While + structural surpluses are expected in H1 2025, immediate supply constraints dominate + sentiment. + langfuse_trace_id: 279f481ab2da3d5e300963fc80c64c78 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/279f481ab2da3d5e300963fc80c64c78 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:13.904697' + as_of: '2025-01-13T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-11T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 76.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 71.5 + '0.1': 72.8 + '0.2': 74.0 + '0.3': 75.0 + '0.4': 75.8 + '0.5': 76.5 + '0.6': 77.2 + '0.7': 78.2 + '0.8': 79.5 + '0.9': 81.0 + '0.95': 82.5 + metadata: + rationale: As of Jan 13, 2025, WTI prices are elevated due to new US sanctions + and cold weather demand. The market is caught between supply-side risk premiums + (geopolitics/sanctions) and fundamental projections of persistent H1 2025 supply + surpluses. The SPR replenishment program provides a soft price floor. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the immediate effect of weather-related + demand may fade. If global supply surpluses persist as projected by the IEA, + prices may face downward pressure, challenging the current rally and converging + back toward the SPR replenishment levels. + langfuse_trace_id: 279f481ab2da3d5e300963fc80c64c78 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/279f481ab2da3d5e300963fc80c64c78 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:27.032668' + as_of: '2025-01-20T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-01-27T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 77.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 74.5 + '0.1': 75.2 + '0.2': 76.0 + '0.3': 76.7 + '0.4': 77.1 + '0.5': 77.5 + '0.6': 77.9 + '0.7': 78.3 + '0.8': 79.0 + '0.9': 80.0 + '0.95': 81.0 + metadata: + rationale: WTI prices are in a state of flux driven by significant shifts in U.S. + energy policy, persistent geopolitical risks in key oil-exporting regions, and + active market management by OPEC+. Current prices are buoyed by supply concerns, + but anticipated increases in non-OPEC+ supply remain a medium-term capping factor. + horizon_rationale: Short-term consolidation following a recent rally. Prices are + supported by geopolitical risks and tight supplies (sanctions), but may see + technical profit-taking. US SPR buy-back policy provides a soft floor near current + levels. + langfuse_trace_id: 02fae6a2db5599341ae5010a1094256a + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/02fae6a2db5599341ae5010a1094256a +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:27.032668' + as_of: '2025-01-20T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-03T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 78.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 73.5 + '0.1': 74.5 + '0.2': 75.5 + '0.3': 76.5 + '0.4': 77.2 + '0.5': 78.0 + '0.6': 78.8 + '0.7': 79.5 + '0.8': 80.5 + '0.9': 81.5 + '0.95': 82.5 + metadata: + rationale: WTI prices are in a state of flux driven by significant shifts in U.S. + energy policy, persistent geopolitical risks in key oil-exporting regions, and + active market management by OPEC+. Current prices are buoyed by supply concerns, + but anticipated increases in non-OPEC+ supply remain a medium-term capping factor. + horizon_rationale: Slight upward drift as market participants digest the implications + of the new administration's pro-production energy policy alongside persistent + regional geopolitical tensions. Demand remains relatively stable. + langfuse_trace_id: 02fae6a2db5599341ae5010a1094256a + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/02fae6a2db5599341ae5010a1094256a +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:27.032668' + as_of: '2025-01-20T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-18T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 79.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 72.0 + '0.1': 73.5 + '0.2': 75.0 + '0.3': 76.5 + '0.4': 78.0 + '0.5': 79.5 + '0.6': 81.0 + '0.7': 82.5 + '0.8': 84.0 + '0.9': 86.0 + '0.95': 87.5 + metadata: + rationale: WTI prices are in a state of flux driven by significant shifts in U.S. + energy policy, persistent geopolitical risks in key oil-exporting regions, and + active market management by OPEC+. Current prices are buoyed by supply concerns, + but anticipated increases in non-OPEC+ supply remain a medium-term capping factor. + horizon_rationale: The outlook at 21 days leans bullish, reflecting seasonal demand + strength and supply-tightening from international sanctions. The risk of supply-side + disruptions remains the primary driver of the wider uncertainty distribution. + langfuse_trace_id: 02fae6a2db5599341ae5010a1094256a + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/02fae6a2db5599341ae5010a1094256a +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:38.442282' + as_of: '2025-01-27T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-03T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 74.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 72.1 + '0.1': 72.5 + '0.2': 73.1 + '0.3': 73.6 + '0.4': 73.9 + '0.5': 74.2 + '0.6': 74.5 + '0.7': 74.9 + '0.8': 75.4 + '0.9': 76.1 + '0.95': 76.8 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a cautious market balancing high geopolitical + risks (sanctions on Russia/Iran) against fundamentals of rising non-OPEC+ supply + and uncertain global demand growth. U.S. policy to refill the SPR provides a + supportive floor, preventing a sharp drop despite technical selling pressure + observed in late January 2025. + horizon_rationale: Over the 5-day horizon, the market is balancing the recent + price pullback from mid-January highs with lingering geopolitical risk premiums. + While US sanctions on Russian oil support prices, technical selling and concerns + about demand growth (linked to potential trade tensions) are limiting immediate + upside. + langfuse_trace_id: f3c26515fe024ebddb0f6ccb53bfa38f + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f3c26515fe024ebddb0f6ccb53bfa38f +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:38.442282' + as_of: '2025-01-27T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-10T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 73.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 70.5 + '0.1': 71.2 + '0.2': 72.0 + '0.3': 72.8 + '0.4': 73.3 + '0.5': 73.8 + '0.6': 74.3 + '0.7': 74.9 + '0.8': 75.8 + '0.9': 76.9 + '0.95': 77.9 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a cautious market balancing high geopolitical + risks (sanctions on Russia/Iran) against fundamentals of rising non-OPEC+ supply + and uncertain global demand growth. U.S. policy to refill the SPR provides a + supportive floor, preventing a sharp drop despite technical selling pressure + observed in late January 2025. + horizon_rationale: The 10-day horizon incorporates potential inventory adjustments + as the market reacts to the new U.S. administration's stated intent to refill + the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This expectation provides a soft floor for + prices, though the broader trend remains capped by the expectation of rising + non-OPEC+ production. + langfuse_trace_id: f3c26515fe024ebddb0f6ccb53bfa38f + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f3c26515fe024ebddb0f6ccb53bfa38f +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:38.442282' + as_of: '2025-01-27T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-25T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 73.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 68.2 + '0.1': 69.5 + '0.2': 70.8 + '0.3': 71.7 + '0.4': 72.4 + '0.5': 73.0 + '0.6': 73.7 + '0.7': 74.6 + '0.8': 75.9 + '0.9': 77.5 + '0.95': 78.8 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a cautious market balancing high geopolitical + risks (sanctions on Russia/Iran) against fundamentals of rising non-OPEC+ supply + and uncertain global demand growth. U.S. policy to refill the SPR provides a + supportive floor, preventing a sharp drop despite technical selling pressure + observed in late January 2025. + horizon_rationale: Over the 21-day horizon, the primary downward pressure comes + from the projected rise in global supply (EIA forecasts) and potential dampening + of demand from U.S.-China trade friction. While Middle Eastern geopolitical + risks remain an upside tail risk, the base case assumes these risks do not manifest + in physical supply disruptions. + langfuse_trace_id: f3c26515fe024ebddb0f6ccb53bfa38f + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f3c26515fe024ebddb0f6ccb53bfa38f +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:51.175983' + as_of: '2025-02-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-10T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 72.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 70.1 + '0.1': 70.8 + '0.2': 71.5 + '0.3': 72.0 + '0.4': 72.4 + '0.5': 72.8 + '0.6': 73.2 + '0.7': 73.7 + '0.8': 74.3 + '0.9': 75.2 + '0.95': 76.0 + metadata: + rationale: WTI crude oil remains constrained by the tug-of-war between geopolitical + risk premiums (sanctions on Russia/Iran) and macroeconomic concerns (demand + outlook/US-China trade relations). The market is currently consolidating after + early January highs, with OPEC+ maintaining production cuts as a price floor. + My forecast reflects a baseline of stable but volatile trading, with slight + upside bias based on potential for geopolitical disruption, tempered by strong + non-OPEC supply growth. + horizon_rationale: Short-term stabilization expected near $72-73 range. Geopolitical + risk premiums remain present, but current US production levels and market skepticism + toward sustained demand growth are moderating prices. OPEC+ policy remains focused + on balancing, providing a floor. + langfuse_trace_id: d38922639d50a17ce432de5c498c6a98 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/d38922639d50a17ce432de5c498c6a98 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:34:51.175983' + as_of: '2025-02-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-04T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 74.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 68.2 + '0.1': 69.4 + '0.2': 70.8 + '0.3': 71.9 + '0.4': 73.0 + '0.5': 74.2 + '0.6': 75.5 + '0.7': 76.8 + '0.8': 78.3 + '0.9': 80.1 + '0.95': 81.5 + metadata: + rationale: WTI crude oil remains constrained by the tug-of-war between geopolitical + risk premiums (sanctions on Russia/Iran) and macroeconomic concerns (demand + outlook/US-China trade relations). The market is currently consolidating after + early January highs, with OPEC+ maintaining production cuts as a price floor. + My forecast reflects a baseline of stable but volatile trading, with slight + upside bias based on potential for geopolitical disruption, tempered by strong + non-OPEC supply growth. + horizon_rationale: Longer-term horizon reflects higher uncertainty in demand growth + forecasts for 2025. While OPEC+ is likely to adhere to production restraint, + robust US production and global economic headwinds pose persistent downward + risks, while any geopolitical escalation in the Middle East provides upside + volatility. + langfuse_trace_id: d38922639d50a17ce432de5c498c6a98 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/d38922639d50a17ce432de5c498c6a98 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:04.887619' + as_of: '2025-02-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-24T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 70.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 67.5 + '0.1': 68.2 + '0.2': 69.0 + '0.3': 69.7 + '0.4': 70.1 + '0.5': 70.5 + '0.6': 71.0 + '0.7': 71.6 + '0.8': 72.5 + '0.9': 73.5 + '0.95': 74.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecasts reflect a cautious, range-bound market environment. Key + drivers are the expectation of non-OPEC+ supply growth, anticipated (though + potentially delayed or adjusted) OPEC+ tapering of voluntary cuts, and persistent + geopolitical anxiety that provides a floor for prices. US energy policy, specifically + regarding the SPR and domestic leasing, is being monitored but currently provides + a secondary, long-term influence compared to immediate inventory and demand + data. + horizon_rationale: Over the next two weeks, the market focus remains on the balance + between seasonal demand softness and geopolitical risk premiums. While some + supply has tightened, the overarching fear of sluggish economic demand and non-OPEC+ + supply growth exerts downward pressure, preventing a significant sustained rally. + langfuse_trace_id: 0b0e7647da3283669a533a315cbc8686 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0b0e7647da3283669a533a315cbc8686 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:04.887619' + as_of: '2025-02-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-11T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 70.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 66.0 + '0.1': 67.0 + '0.2': 68.0 + '0.3': 68.8 + '0.4': 69.4 + '0.5': 70.0 + '0.6': 70.8 + '0.7': 71.8 + '0.8': 73.0 + '0.9': 74.5 + '0.95': 76.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecasts reflect a cautious, range-bound market environment. Key + drivers are the expectation of non-OPEC+ supply growth, anticipated (though + potentially delayed or adjusted) OPEC+ tapering of voluntary cuts, and persistent + geopolitical anxiety that provides a floor for prices. US energy policy, specifically + regarding the SPR and domestic leasing, is being monitored but currently provides + a secondary, long-term influence compared to immediate inventory and demand + data. + horizon_rationale: Looking one month out, the price is susceptible to increased + pressure as the market prices in the upcoming transition of OPEC+ policy. The + risk of supply surplus from non-OPEC producers, combined with lingering bearish + sentiment regarding global demand, tilts the distribution toward a slightly + lower, consolidated range. + langfuse_trace_id: 0b0e7647da3283669a533a315cbc8686 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0b0e7647da3283669a533a315cbc8686 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:17.503941' + as_of: '2025-02-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-02-24T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 70.85 + quantiles: + '0.05': 68.2 + '0.1': 69.1 + '0.2': 69.8 + '0.3': 70.2 + '0.4': 70.5 + '0.5': 70.85 + '0.6': 71.2 + '0.7': 71.6 + '0.8': 72.1 + '0.9': 72.9 + '0.95': 73.5 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecast reflects a balanced market currently caught between structural + inventory tightness and macroeconomic demand skepticism. Key drivers: 1) OPEC+ + discipline through end-Q1, 2) U.S. SPR refill mandates, and 3) geopolitical + premiums tied to shipping security. The distribution broadens over time as the + market approaches the April production policy change.' + horizon_rationale: As of Feb 17, 2025, markets are in a cautious holding pattern. + Prices are currently supported by geopolitical risks and U.S. intentions to + refill the SPR, while pressured by persistent demand concerns. Near-term volatility + remains constrained by low liquidity before the April OPEC+ production adjustment. + langfuse_trace_id: 1c6369c57867f21602c1a6d6a9b7383d + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/1c6369c57867f21602c1a6d6a9b7383d +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:17.503941' + as_of: '2025-02-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-03T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 71.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 67.5 + '0.1': 68.4 + '0.2': 69.4 + '0.3': 70.1 + '0.4': 70.7 + '0.5': 71.2 + '0.6': 71.8 + '0.7': 72.4 + '0.8': 73.1 + '0.9': 74.2 + '0.95': 75.0 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecast reflects a balanced market currently caught between structural + inventory tightness and macroeconomic demand skepticism. Key drivers: 1) OPEC+ + discipline through end-Q1, 2) U.S. SPR refill mandates, and 3) geopolitical + premiums tied to shipping security. The distribution broadens over time as the + market approaches the April production policy change.' + horizon_rationale: Over two weeks, potential for minor supply adjustments or geopolitical + escalation increases the tail risk to the upside, while baseline demand remains + steady but modest. The market continues to balance physical inventory constraints + against macroeconomic headwinds. + langfuse_trace_id: 1c6369c57867f21602c1a6d6a9b7383d + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/1c6369c57867f21602c1a6d6a9b7383d +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:17.503941' + as_of: '2025-02-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-18T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 71.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 66.0 + '0.1': 67.2 + '0.2': 68.6 + '0.3': 69.8 + '0.4': 70.9 + '0.5': 71.8 + '0.6': 72.8 + '0.7': 73.9 + '0.8': 75.1 + '0.9': 76.8 + '0.95': 78.0 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecast reflects a balanced market currently caught between structural + inventory tightness and macroeconomic demand skepticism. Key drivers: 1) OPEC+ + discipline through end-Q1, 2) U.S. SPR refill mandates, and 3) geopolitical + premiums tied to shipping security. The distribution broadens over time as the + market approaches the April production policy change.' + horizon_rationale: By mid-March, markets will begin pricing in the April 2025 + scheduled easing of OPEC+ voluntary cuts. Expect rising anticipation and volatility + as traders weigh the impact of increased supply on a market currently operating + with tight stocks and persistent geopolitical risk premiums. + langfuse_trace_id: 1c6369c57867f21602c1a6d6a9b7383d + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/1c6369c57867f21602c1a6d6a9b7383d +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:28.603454' + as_of: '2025-02-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-03T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 70.4 + quantiles: + '0.05': 68.2 + '0.1': 68.8 + '0.2': 69.3 + '0.3': 69.8 + '0.4': 70.1 + '0.5': 70.4 + '0.6': 70.8 + '0.7': 71.3 + '0.8': 71.9 + '0.9': 72.5 + '0.95': 73.1 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast assumes that the market remains in a cautious, range-bound + environment. Key drivers include the ongoing commitment of OPEC+ to production + discipline, offset by concerns regarding global demand growth (particularly + China) and non-OPEC+ supply increases. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf + remain a latent factor that could lead to spikes, while U.S. SPR replenishment + activity serves as a minor support level. + horizon_rationale: Short-term consolidation follows the recent price drop to $70.40. + Market is range-bound awaiting clearer demand signals from China and balancing + OPEC+ supply discipline against high non-OPEC+ output. + langfuse_trace_id: dab910c0c7cecf8807c8efb9c4a62776 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/dab910c0c7cecf8807c8efb9c4a62776 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:28.603454' + as_of: '2025-02-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-10T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 70.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 67.5 + '0.1': 68.2 + '0.2': 69.0 + '0.3': 69.7 + '0.4': 70.2 + '0.5': 70.8 + '0.6': 71.4 + '0.7': 72.1 + '0.8': 72.9 + '0.9': 73.8 + '0.95': 74.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast assumes that the market remains in a cautious, range-bound + environment. Key drivers include the ongoing commitment of OPEC+ to production + discipline, offset by concerns regarding global demand growth (particularly + China) and non-OPEC+ supply increases. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf + remain a latent factor that could lead to spikes, while U.S. SPR replenishment + activity serves as a minor support level. + horizon_rationale: Over 10 trading days, we expect continued volatility as the + market navigates the tension between persistent bearish demand sentiment and + the floor provided by OPEC+'s commitment to manage supply. + langfuse_trace_id: dab910c0c7cecf8807c8efb9c4a62776 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/dab910c0c7cecf8807c8efb9c4a62776 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:28.603454' + as_of: '2025-02-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-25T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 71.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 66.0 + '0.1': 67.2 + '0.2': 68.5 + '0.3': 69.6 + '0.4': 70.6 + '0.5': 71.5 + '0.6': 72.5 + '0.7': 73.6 + '0.8': 74.8 + '0.9': 76.2 + '0.95': 77.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast assumes that the market remains in a cautious, range-bound + environment. Key drivers include the ongoing commitment of OPEC+ to production + discipline, offset by concerns regarding global demand growth (particularly + China) and non-OPEC+ supply increases. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf + remain a latent factor that could lead to spikes, while U.S. SPR replenishment + activity serves as a minor support level. + horizon_rationale: Looking 21 days out, potential stabilization is anticipated + as the market adjusts to the current supply-demand balance. Risks remain skewed + towards downside if economic data continues to disappoint, though geopolitical + premiums in the Middle East offer some resistance. + langfuse_trace_id: dab910c0c7cecf8807c8efb9c4a62776 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/dab910c0c7cecf8807c8efb9c4a62776 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:40.976077' + as_of: '2025-03-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-10T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 69.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 67.2 + '0.1': 67.8 + '0.2': 68.4 + '0.3': 68.9 + '0.4': 69.2 + '0.5': 69.5 + '0.6': 69.8 + '0.7': 70.1 + '0.8': 70.6 + '0.9': 71.3 + '0.95': 72.0 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI crude oil as of March 3, 2025, is primarily bearish, + driven by the anticipated unwind of OPEC+ production cuts starting in April + 2025 and ongoing concerns regarding global demand growth. While geopolitical + risks in the Middle East provide a floor for prices, they are currently overshadowed + by the fundamentals of a 'comfortably supplied' market. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure remains, driven by market caution and the + transition toward OPEC+ supply increases in April. The recent close of 69.76 + indicates a consolidation phase. Expect minimal volatility in the next 5 days. + langfuse_trace_id: a264ebe5b67072dd33d0b89709f207da + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a264ebe5b67072dd33d0b89709f207da +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:40.976077' + as_of: '2025-03-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-17T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 69.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 66.5 + '0.1': 67.3 + '0.2': 68.0 + '0.3': 68.5 + '0.4': 68.9 + '0.5': 69.2 + '0.6': 69.6 + '0.7': 70.0 + '0.8': 70.5 + '0.9': 71.5 + '0.95': 72.5 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI crude oil as of March 3, 2025, is primarily bearish, + driven by the anticipated unwind of OPEC+ production cuts starting in April + 2025 and ongoing concerns regarding global demand growth. While geopolitical + risks in the Middle East provide a floor for prices, they are currently overshadowed + by the fundamentals of a 'comfortably supplied' market. + horizon_rationale: As the market approaches the April implementation of OPEC+ + production increases, fundamental bearishness may exert further downward pressure. + Macroeconomic demand concerns remain prevalent. + langfuse_trace_id: a264ebe5b67072dd33d0b89709f207da + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a264ebe5b67072dd33d0b89709f207da +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:40.976077' + as_of: '2025-03-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-01T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 65.0 + '0.1': 66.0 + '0.2': 67.0 + '0.3': 67.7 + '0.4': 68.1 + '0.5': 68.5 + '0.6': 68.9 + '0.7': 69.5 + '0.8': 70.2 + '0.9': 71.5 + '0.95': 73.0 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI crude oil as of March 3, 2025, is primarily bearish, + driven by the anticipated unwind of OPEC+ production cuts starting in April + 2025 and ongoing concerns regarding global demand growth. While geopolitical + risks in the Middle East provide a floor for prices, they are currently overshadowed + by the fundamentals of a 'comfortably supplied' market. + horizon_rationale: Over a one-month horizon, the market fully incorporates the + expected supply boost from OPEC+ and robust non-OPEC output. Geopolitical risks + exist but are currently secondary to the fundamental supply/demand imbalance. + langfuse_trace_id: a264ebe5b67072dd33d0b89709f207da + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a264ebe5b67072dd33d0b89709f207da +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:53.422382' + as_of: '2025-03-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-17T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 66.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.5 + '0.1': 65.2 + '0.2': 65.8 + '0.3': 66.2 + '0.4': 66.5 + '0.5': 66.8 + '0.6': 67.2 + '0.7': 67.8 + '0.8': 68.5 + '0.9': 69.5 + '0.95': 70.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a cautious market environment. The core driver + is the recent OPEC+ confirmation of a gradual supply increase starting April + 1, balanced against persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and + a generally tepid global macroeconomic outlook. The price levels are anchored + by the current $66-$67 range, which has shown signs of supporting physical demand, + while the potential for further economic softness limits significant upside. + horizon_rationale: As of March 10, 2025, WTI is trading near $67, just off recent + lows. The short-term outlook is dominated by technical consolidation and market + digestion of the OPEC+ decision to begin unwinding voluntary cuts in April. + We expect volatility to remain moderate over the next week as markets weigh + geopolitical risk against the potential for an easier crude balance. + langfuse_trace_id: 749d7a72b15722ec2d43ce48f2858da4 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/749d7a72b15722ec2d43ce48f2858da4 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:53.422382' + as_of: '2025-03-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-24T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.0 + '0.1': 64.8 + '0.2': 65.6 + '0.3': 66.3 + '0.4': 66.9 + '0.5': 67.5 + '0.6': 68.1 + '0.7': 68.8 + '0.8': 69.8 + '0.9': 71.0 + '0.95': 72.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a cautious market environment. The core driver + is the recent OPEC+ confirmation of a gradual supply increase starting April + 1, balanced against persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and + a generally tepid global macroeconomic outlook. The price levels are anchored + by the current $66-$67 range, which has shown signs of supporting physical demand, + while the potential for further economic softness limits significant upside. + horizon_rationale: Over the two-week horizon, the market will likely begin to + price in more specific implications of the upcoming April supply changes. While + the macroeconomic outlook remains cautious, prices near current levels are attracting + some support. The geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East provides a floor, + preventing a sharper slide. + langfuse_trace_id: 749d7a72b15722ec2d43ce48f2858da4 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/749d7a72b15722ec2d43ce48f2858da4 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:35:53.422382' + as_of: '2025-03-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-08T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.5 + '0.1': 64.5 + '0.2': 65.5 + '0.3': 66.5 + '0.4': 67.5 + '0.5': 68.2 + '0.6': 69.0 + '0.7': 70.0 + '0.8': 71.5 + '0.9': 73.0 + '0.95': 74.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a cautious market environment. The core driver + is the recent OPEC+ confirmation of a gradual supply increase starting April + 1, balanced against persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and + a generally tepid global macroeconomic outlook. The price levels are anchored + by the current $66-$67 range, which has shown signs of supporting physical demand, + while the potential for further economic softness limits significant upside. + horizon_rationale: By the end of the one-month horizon, the market will be approaching + the April 1 start date for the OPEC+ supply taper. We anticipate that prices + will stabilize as the market shifts focus toward inventory data and demand performance + heading into the second quarter. Key risks to the upside remain geopolitical, + while downside risks include further softening in global macro economic data. + langfuse_trace_id: 749d7a72b15722ec2d43ce48f2858da4 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/749d7a72b15722ec2d43ce48f2858da4 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:05.638598' + as_of: '2025-03-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-24T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.5 + '0.1': 65.2 + '0.2': 66.1 + '0.3': 66.7 + '0.4': 66.9 + '0.5': 67.2 + '0.6': 67.5 + '0.7': 68.0 + '0.8': 68.8 + '0.9': 69.5 + '0.95': 70.2 + metadata: + rationale: The WTI forecast is driven by a bearish consensus regarding the 2025 + supply-demand balance, specifically the anticipated OPEC+ production increase + beginning April 1, 2025, and a softening global demand outlook. Geopolitical + risk in the Persian Gulf, while monitored, remains a secondary influence relative + to the fundamental pressure from non-OPEC production gains and inventory management + strategies. Historical price support at the $65 level provides a floor for the + probabilistic range. + horizon_rationale: Short-term sentiment is dampened by a persistent global demand + outlook and anticipation of the OPEC+ production increase slated for April 1. + Trading near recent lows of $67.18, the market shows signs of technical consolidation, + with risk skewed slightly to the downside due to the potential for a projected + 2025 supply surplus. + langfuse_trace_id: 2c7ecac9866751ada62f7ed7e8314272 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2c7ecac9866751ada62f7ed7e8314272 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:05.638598' + as_of: '2025-03-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-31T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 66.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.5 + '0.1': 64.3 + '0.2': 65.2 + '0.3': 65.9 + '0.4': 66.4 + '0.5': 66.8 + '0.6': 67.2 + '0.7': 67.8 + '0.8': 68.5 + '0.9': 69.4 + '0.95': 70.1 + metadata: + rationale: The WTI forecast is driven by a bearish consensus regarding the 2025 + supply-demand balance, specifically the anticipated OPEC+ production increase + beginning April 1, 2025, and a softening global demand outlook. Geopolitical + risk in the Persian Gulf, while monitored, remains a secondary influence relative + to the fundamental pressure from non-OPEC production gains and inventory management + strategies. Historical price support at the $65 level provides a floor for the + probabilistic range. + horizon_rationale: Over the two-week horizon, market participants will likely + focus on incoming data and preparation for the OPEC+ policy transition. Without + significant geopolitical shocks in the Persian Gulf, the fundamental narrative + of rising non-OPEC production and stagnant demand growth should maintain downward + pressure on price levels. + langfuse_trace_id: 2c7ecac9866751ada62f7ed7e8314272 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2c7ecac9866751ada62f7ed7e8314272 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:05.638598' + as_of: '2025-03-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-15T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 66.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 62.0 + '0.1': 63.0 + '0.2': 64.0 + '0.3': 64.9 + '0.4': 65.5 + '0.5': 66.0 + '0.6': 66.5 + '0.7': 67.2 + '0.8': 68.1 + '0.9': 69.0 + '0.95': 70.0 + metadata: + rationale: The WTI forecast is driven by a bearish consensus regarding the 2025 + supply-demand balance, specifically the anticipated OPEC+ production increase + beginning April 1, 2025, and a softening global demand outlook. Geopolitical + risk in the Persian Gulf, while monitored, remains a secondary influence relative + to the fundamental pressure from non-OPEC production gains and inventory management + strategies. Historical price support at the $65 level provides a floor for the + probabilistic range. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the April 1 start date for the OPEC+ + production increase will be imminent. Market pricing should reflect this anticipated + increase in supply. Assuming no major disruption, the structural balance suggests + a gradual drift toward lower levels, constrained by historical support near + $65. + langfuse_trace_id: 2c7ecac9866751ada62f7ed7e8314272 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2c7ecac9866751ada62f7ed7e8314272 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:18.633473' + as_of: '2025-03-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-03-31T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.5 + '0.1': 65.2 + '0.2': 66.0 + '0.3': 66.5 + '0.4': 67.0 + '0.5': 67.5 + '0.6': 68.0 + '0.7': 68.8 + '0.8': 69.5 + '0.9': 70.5 + '0.95': 71.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is predicated on the March 2025 reaffirmation by OPEC+ + to begin a gradual, 2.2 mb/d supply restoration starting April 1. Market sentiment + as of March 24 is cautious, with price action centered around supply balance + comfort rather than geopolitical disruption. U.S. inventories and broader macroeconomic + uncertainty in Asia further limit upside. The probability distribution reflects + a slight downward bias as the market shifts from a regime of voluntary cuts + to a more flexible, increasing supply outlook. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure persists due to the market pricing in the + upcoming April 1st OPEC+ production increase. Sentiment remains cautious with + limited upside catalyst as supply balances appear more comfortable. + langfuse_trace_id: 0c784a848e4469a0a5047494568484cc + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0c784a848e4469a0a5047494568484cc +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:18.633473' + as_of: '2025-03-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-07T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.5 + '0.1': 64.5 + '0.2': 65.5 + '0.3': 66.0 + '0.4': 66.5 + '0.5': 67.0 + '0.6': 67.8 + '0.7': 68.5 + '0.8': 69.5 + '0.9': 71.0 + '0.95': 72.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is predicated on the March 2025 reaffirmation by OPEC+ + to begin a gradual, 2.2 mb/d supply restoration starting April 1. Market sentiment + as of March 24 is cautious, with price action centered around supply balance + comfort rather than geopolitical disruption. U.S. inventories and broader macroeconomic + uncertainty in Asia further limit upside. The probability distribution reflects + a slight downward bias as the market shifts from a regime of voluntary cuts + to a more flexible, increasing supply outlook. + horizon_rationale: As the April 1st start date for OPEC+ supply unwinding approaches, + downside risks are maintained. Macroeconomic sentiment remains fragile, weighing + on potential demand-driven recovery. + langfuse_trace_id: 0c784a848e4469a0a5047494568484cc + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0c784a848e4469a0a5047494568484cc +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:18.633473' + as_of: '2025-03-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-22T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 66.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 62.0 + '0.1': 63.0 + '0.2': 64.0 + '0.3': 65.0 + '0.4': 66.0 + '0.5': 66.5 + '0.6': 67.5 + '0.7': 68.5 + '0.8': 70.0 + '0.9': 72.0 + '0.95': 74.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is predicated on the March 2025 reaffirmation by OPEC+ + to begin a gradual, 2.2 mb/d supply restoration starting April 1. Market sentiment + as of March 24 is cautious, with price action centered around supply balance + comfort rather than geopolitical disruption. U.S. inventories and broader macroeconomic + uncertainty in Asia further limit upside. The probability distribution reflects + a slight downward bias as the market shifts from a regime of voluntary cuts + to a more flexible, increasing supply outlook. + horizon_rationale: Over a one-month horizon, the market will likely begin digesting + initial supply data following the start of OPEC+ output increases. Geopolitical + factors provide a floor, but fundamentally, the outlook remains bearish if demand + growth fails to accelerate significantly. + langfuse_trace_id: 0c784a848e4469a0a5047494568484cc + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0c784a848e4469a0a5047494568484cc +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:32.215548' + as_of: '2025-03-31T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-07T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 69.1 + quantiles: + '0.05': 67.2 + '0.1': 67.8 + '0.2': 68.3 + '0.3': 68.7 + '0.4': 68.9 + '0.5': 69.1 + '0.6': 69.3 + '0.7': 69.6 + '0.8': 69.9 + '0.9': 70.4 + '0.95': 70.8 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI is bearish in the near-term due to the scheduled + start of OPEC+ production increases on April 1, 2025. While market fundamentals + are supported by a backwardated curve and persistent (though non-escalated) + geopolitical sensitivity in key shipping lanes, the dominant theme is the anticipated + return of supply into a market with cautious demand growth expectations. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure persists as the market adjusts to the beginning + of the OPEC+ gradual production increase starting April 1. Sentiment is cautious + due to weaker global demand forecasts, offset by the backwardated structure + of the futures curve. + langfuse_trace_id: 4f558003d2d54e88779c97d1be2a26ae + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4f558003d2d54e88779c97d1be2a26ae +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:32.215548' + as_of: '2025-03-31T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-14T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 66.5 + '0.1': 67.1 + '0.2': 67.7 + '0.3': 68.2 + '0.4': 68.5 + '0.5': 68.8 + '0.6': 69.1 + '0.7': 69.5 + '0.8': 69.9 + '0.9': 70.6 + '0.95': 71.1 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI is bearish in the near-term due to the scheduled + start of OPEC+ production increases on April 1, 2025. While market fundamentals + are supported by a backwardated curve and persistent (though non-escalated) + geopolitical sensitivity in key shipping lanes, the dominant theme is the anticipated + return of supply into a market with cautious demand growth expectations. + horizon_rationale: Over 10 days, the market will incorporate real-time data on + the actual implementation of the OPEC+ production ramp-up. Continued focus remains + on US inventory levels and potential demand softening in non-OECD regions. + langfuse_trace_id: 4f558003d2d54e88779c97d1be2a26ae + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4f558003d2d54e88779c97d1be2a26ae +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:32.215548' + as_of: '2025-03-31T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-29T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.3 + quantiles: + '0.05': 65.2 + '0.1': 66.0 + '0.2': 66.8 + '0.3': 67.4 + '0.4': 67.9 + '0.5': 68.3 + '0.6': 68.8 + '0.7': 69.3 + '0.8': 69.9 + '0.9': 70.8 + '0.95': 71.5 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI is bearish in the near-term due to the scheduled + start of OPEC+ production increases on April 1, 2025. While market fundamentals + are supported by a backwardated curve and persistent (though non-escalated) + geopolitical sensitivity in key shipping lanes, the dominant theme is the anticipated + return of supply into a market with cautious demand growth expectations. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the impact of the initial monthly OPEC+ + production increment should be fully integrated into pricing. Geopolitical risks + in the Persian Gulf provide a floor for price support but are currently tempered + by the overall bearish supply outlook. + langfuse_trace_id: 4f558003d2d54e88779c97d1be2a26ae + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4f558003d2d54e88779c97d1be2a26ae +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:44.162123' + as_of: '2025-04-07T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-14T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.5 + '0.1': 59.5 + '0.2': 60.2 + '0.3': 60.8 + '0.4': 61.2 + '0.5': 61.5 + '0.6': 61.8 + '0.7': 62.2 + '0.8': 62.8 + '0.9': 63.5 + '0.95': 64.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is driven by the bearish shift in market fundamental expectations + following the April 3, 2025, OPEC+ announcement to accelerate production increases. + Coupled with downward revisions in IEA demand forecasts and broader concerns + regarding macroeconomic growth and trade tariffs, the price outlook is skewed + to the downside. Key assumptions include a consistent adherence to the new, + higher OPEC+ production quotas and the absence of major escalations in Persian + Gulf geopolitical risk that would otherwise provide a significant supply-risk + premium. + horizon_rationale: Market sentiment remains heavily bearish following the April + 3 OPEC+ decision to accelerate production increases. Prices are testing the + $61.99 floor. Short-term downside persists due to bearish technical momentum + and fears of weakening global demand, while limited recovery potential is capped + by the upcoming supply increase. + langfuse_trace_id: 6a5d467ff5aa21e8a52d8ed8ced314eb + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/6a5d467ff5aa21e8a52d8ed8ced314eb +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:44.162123' + as_of: '2025-04-07T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-21T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.5 + '0.2': 58.8 + '0.3': 59.6 + '0.4': 60.1 + '0.5': 60.5 + '0.6': 61.0 + '0.7': 61.6 + '0.8': 62.2 + '0.9': 63.0 + '0.95': 63.8 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is driven by the bearish shift in market fundamental expectations + following the April 3, 2025, OPEC+ announcement to accelerate production increases. + Coupled with downward revisions in IEA demand forecasts and broader concerns + regarding macroeconomic growth and trade tariffs, the price outlook is skewed + to the downside. Key assumptions include a consistent adherence to the new, + higher OPEC+ production quotas and the absence of major escalations in Persian + Gulf geopolitical risk that would otherwise provide a significant supply-risk + premium. + horizon_rationale: Over a 10-day horizon, the market is expected to price in the + negative implications of the OPEC+ policy shift and potential macro demand revisions. + The breach of the $62 level indicates a high likelihood of testing lower support + levels. + langfuse_trace_id: 6a5d467ff5aa21e8a52d8ed8ced314eb + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/6a5d467ff5aa21e8a52d8ed8ced314eb +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:44.162123' + as_of: '2025-04-07T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-06T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 53.0 + '0.1': 54.5 + '0.2': 56.5 + '0.3': 57.8 + '0.4': 58.5 + '0.5': 59.0 + '0.6': 59.8 + '0.7': 60.5 + '0.8': 61.5 + '0.9': 62.5 + '0.95': 63.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is driven by the bearish shift in market fundamental expectations + following the April 3, 2025, OPEC+ announcement to accelerate production increases. + Coupled with downward revisions in IEA demand forecasts and broader concerns + regarding macroeconomic growth and trade tariffs, the price outlook is skewed + to the downside. Key assumptions include a consistent adherence to the new, + higher OPEC+ production quotas and the absence of major escalations in Persian + Gulf geopolitical risk that would otherwise provide a significant supply-risk + premium. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the supply-demand imbalance resulting + from the accelerated OPEC+ production increase is expected to be more fully + reflected in prices, potentially pushing WTI toward the high $50s if no significant + geopolitical disruption occurs to counteract the supply-side bearishness. + langfuse_trace_id: 6a5d467ff5aa21e8a52d8ed8ced314eb + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/6a5d467ff5aa21e8a52d8ed8ced314eb +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:56.583695' + as_of: '2025-04-14T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-21T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.5 + '0.1': 59.2 + '0.2': 60.1 + '0.3': 60.6 + '0.4': 60.9 + '0.5': 61.2 + '0.6': 61.6 + '0.7': 62.0 + '0.8': 62.8 + '0.9': 63.8 + '0.95': 64.5 + metadata: + rationale: The market is currently in a bearish trend driven by the OPEC+ decision + to accelerate the return of supply to the market alongside downward revisions + to global demand growth. While SPR replenishment provides a floor, the primary + sentiment is dominated by supply-side increases and macro-economic demand concerns, + leading to a downward-biased outlook. + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon (5 days) reflects continued downward pressure + from the OPEC+ supply increase, offset slightly by a technical rebound potential + from the recent oversold condition at $59.58. + langfuse_trace_id: 3758484f7c66ac3483d7eeee204ff4f7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3758484f7c66ac3483d7eeee204ff4f7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:56.583695' + as_of: '2025-04-14T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-28T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.0 + '0.1': 58.0 + '0.2': 59.0 + '0.3': 59.7 + '0.4': 60.1 + '0.5': 60.5 + '0.6': 61.0 + '0.7': 61.6 + '0.8': 62.5 + '0.9': 63.5 + '0.95': 64.5 + metadata: + rationale: The market is currently in a bearish trend driven by the OPEC+ decision + to accelerate the return of supply to the market alongside downward revisions + to global demand growth. While SPR replenishment provides a floor, the primary + sentiment is dominated by supply-side increases and macro-economic demand concerns, + leading to a downward-biased outlook. + horizon_rationale: 10-day horizon integrates the market's digestion of OPEC+ supply + adjustments and weakening global demand growth forecasts, favoring a gradual + drift lower. + langfuse_trace_id: 3758484f7c66ac3483d7eeee204ff4f7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3758484f7c66ac3483d7eeee204ff4f7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:36:56.583695' + as_of: '2025-04-14T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-13T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 56.5 + '0.2': 57.5 + '0.3': 58.5 + '0.4': 59.2 + '0.5': 59.8 + '0.6': 60.5 + '0.7': 61.5 + '0.8': 63.0 + '0.9': 65.0 + '0.95': 66.5 + metadata: + rationale: The market is currently in a bearish trend driven by the OPEC+ decision + to accelerate the return of supply to the market alongside downward revisions + to global demand growth. While SPR replenishment provides a floor, the primary + sentiment is dominated by supply-side increases and macro-economic demand concerns, + leading to a downward-biased outlook. + horizon_rationale: 'The 21-day forecast reflects mounting bearish fundamentals: + persistent OPEC+ supply additions, trade tariff anxieties, and softening global + consumption trends, potentially testing sub-$60 levels.' + langfuse_trace_id: 3758484f7c66ac3483d7eeee204ff4f7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3758484f7c66ac3483d7eeee204ff4f7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:08.451555' + as_of: '2025-04-21T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-04-28T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 63.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.2 + '0.2': 62.0 + '0.3': 62.6 + '0.4': 63.1 + '0.5': 63.5 + '0.6': 64.0 + '0.7': 64.8 + '0.8': 65.8 + '0.9': 67.2 + '0.95': 68.5 + metadata: + rationale: As of April 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices are facing strong downward + momentum driven by negative macroeconomic sentiment (trade tariffs, recession + fears) and an expected supply increase from the ongoing phase-out of OPEC+ voluntary + production cuts. Global demand growth forecasts have been revised downwards, + and while the SPR replenishment acts as a marginal price floor, the overall + outlook remains bearish for the immediate 3-week window. + horizon_rationale: Market is currently under significant bearish pressure from + macroeconomic concerns, including trade tariffs and recession fears, as well + as the ongoing unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts. Near-term price action (5-day) + is expected to remain volatile but show a slight potential for consolidation + after recent sharp declines. + langfuse_trace_id: ceba82046624bdb2d8188a5bd8208ce7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ceba82046624bdb2d8188a5bd8208ce7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:08.451555' + as_of: '2025-04-21T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-05T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.5 + '0.1': 59.5 + '0.2': 60.8 + '0.3': 61.6 + '0.4': 62.2 + '0.5': 62.8 + '0.6': 63.4 + '0.7': 64.5 + '0.8': 66.0 + '0.9': 68.5 + '0.95': 70.0 + metadata: + rationale: As of April 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices are facing strong downward + momentum driven by negative macroeconomic sentiment (trade tariffs, recession + fears) and an expected supply increase from the ongoing phase-out of OPEC+ voluntary + production cuts. Global demand growth forecasts have been revised downwards, + and while the SPR replenishment acts as a marginal price floor, the overall + outlook remains bearish for the immediate 3-week window. + horizon_rationale: Over a 10-day horizon, the cumulative effect of a weak global + demand outlook and the expected surplus from OPEC+ production increases will + likely continue to drag prices downward, assuming no major geopolitical supply + shocks occur in the Persian Gulf. + langfuse_trace_id: ceba82046624bdb2d8188a5bd8208ce7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ceba82046624bdb2d8188a5bd8208ce7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:08.451555' + as_of: '2025-04-21T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-20T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.0 + '0.1': 57.5 + '0.2': 59.0 + '0.3': 60.2 + '0.4': 60.9 + '0.5': 61.5 + '0.6': 62.5 + '0.7': 64.0 + '0.8': 66.5 + '0.9': 69.5 + '0.95': 72.0 + metadata: + rationale: As of April 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices are facing strong downward + momentum driven by negative macroeconomic sentiment (trade tariffs, recession + fears) and an expected supply increase from the ongoing phase-out of OPEC+ voluntary + production cuts. Global demand growth forecasts have been revised downwards, + and while the SPR replenishment acts as a marginal price floor, the overall + outlook remains bearish for the immediate 3-week window. + horizon_rationale: For the 21-day horizon, the primary risk remains the structural + oversupply in the market coupled with a persistent weak macroeconomic backdrop. + While the SPR replenishment program provides some theoretical price support + at lower levels, it is not anticipated to halt the primary downward trend in + the current market environment. + langfuse_trace_id: ceba82046624bdb2d8188a5bd8208ce7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ceba82046624bdb2d8188a5bd8208ce7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:21.386544' + as_of: '2025-04-28T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-05T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.15 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.85 + '0.1': 60.5 + '0.2': 61.2 + '0.3': 61.65 + '0.4': 61.9 + '0.5': 62.15 + '0.6': 62.4 + '0.7': 62.75 + '0.8': 63.3 + '0.9': 64.1 + '0.95': 64.8 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook is predominantly bearish, driven by a confluence of supply + increases from OPEC+ (starting May 2025) and weakened global demand forecasts + (IEA). The market is currently navigating technical resistance following the + recent sell-off. Key upside risks include potential unforeseen escalations in + Persian Gulf tensions or major shifts in US energy policy (e.g., more aggressive + SPR restocking), though these appear secondary to the current macro-demand concerns. + horizon_rationale: Market sentiment remains bearish as of late April 2025. Following + the recent price drop, technical support near $60 is being tested. Expected + supply increases from OPEC+ (411k bpd in May) and concerns regarding weak global + demand growth (IEA downward revisions) keep downside risks prominent. Short-term + volatility is expected as the market digests these factors. + langfuse_trace_id: 2bee8349ac84e6c8c303defaffd2e802 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2bee8349ac84e6c8c303defaffd2e802 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:21.386544' + as_of: '2025-04-28T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-12T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.4 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.2 + '0.1': 59.1 + '0.2': 60.0 + '0.3': 60.7 + '0.4': 61.1 + '0.5': 61.4 + '0.6': 61.8 + '0.7': 62.3 + '0.8': 63.0 + '0.9': 64.0 + '0.95': 64.9 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook is predominantly bearish, driven by a confluence of supply + increases from OPEC+ (starting May 2025) and weakened global demand forecasts + (IEA). The market is currently navigating technical resistance following the + recent sell-off. Key upside risks include potential unforeseen escalations in + Persian Gulf tensions or major shifts in US energy policy (e.g., more aggressive + SPR restocking), though these appear secondary to the current macro-demand concerns. + horizon_rationale: Over the 10-day horizon, the market is expected to remain under + pressure as the May production increase begins to manifest. Economic uncertainty + persists. $60 remains a critical psychological and technical support level; + a breach could lead to testing lower ranges observed in historical data during + similar supply-glut cycles. + langfuse_trace_id: 2bee8349ac84e6c8c303defaffd2e802 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2bee8349ac84e6c8c303defaffd2e802 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:21.386544' + as_of: '2025-04-28T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-27T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.5 + '0.1': 56.8 + '0.2': 58.2 + '0.3': 59.1 + '0.4': 59.7 + '0.5': 60.2 + '0.6': 60.8 + '0.7': 61.5 + '0.8': 62.4 + '0.9': 63.8 + '0.95': 65.2 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook is predominantly bearish, driven by a confluence of supply + increases from OPEC+ (starting May 2025) and weakened global demand forecasts + (IEA). The market is currently navigating technical resistance following the + recent sell-off. Key upside risks include potential unforeseen escalations in + Persian Gulf tensions or major shifts in US energy policy (e.g., more aggressive + SPR restocking), though these appear secondary to the current macro-demand concerns. + horizon_rationale: By the end of the 21-day horizon, the cumulative effect of + the OPEC+ production increase and continuing weak macro sentiment is expected + to drive further bearish consolidation. While volatility remains, the trend + points toward testing support below $60. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf + continue to provide some price floor, preventing more aggressive declines. + langfuse_trace_id: 2bee8349ac84e6c8c303defaffd2e802 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2bee8349ac84e6c8c303defaffd2e802 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:34.203064' + as_of: '2025-05-05T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-12T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 54.5 + '0.1': 55.2 + '0.2': 56.0 + '0.3': 56.7 + '0.4': 57.1 + '0.5': 57.5 + '0.6': 58.0 + '0.7': 58.7 + '0.8': 59.5 + '0.9': 60.5 + '0.95': 61.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current bearish market sentiment as + of early May 2025. Key factors include the surprise acceleration of OPEC+ production + increases, deteriorating global oil demand projections for 2025, and record + U.S. domestic production. Geopolitical risks are monitored but are not currently + driving the price higher given the strong physical supply signals. + horizon_rationale: As of May 5, 2025, the market is digesting the negative sentiment + from April, which saw prices decline significantly due to OPEC+ supply increases + and weakening global demand forecasts. In the short term (5 business days), + downward momentum likely persists as traders adjust positions to the new supply-side + reality. The near-term floor is tested near $58, with minor volatility expected. + langfuse_trace_id: 0319af2ee647fbb845ed33cdb7b97786 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0319af2ee647fbb845ed33cdb7b97786 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:34.203064' + as_of: '2025-05-05T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-19T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 56.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 53.0 + '0.1': 54.0 + '0.2': 55.0 + '0.3': 55.8 + '0.4': 56.3 + '0.5': 56.8 + '0.6': 57.5 + '0.7': 58.2 + '0.8': 59.0 + '0.9': 60.0 + '0.95': 61.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current bearish market sentiment as + of early May 2025. Key factors include the surprise acceleration of OPEC+ production + increases, deteriorating global oil demand projections for 2025, and record + U.S. domestic production. Geopolitical risks are monitored but are not currently + driving the price higher given the strong physical supply signals. + horizon_rationale: Over 10 business days, the market will assess data regarding + actual compliance with the OPEC+ production increases. If data confirms that + member nations are aggressively ramping up production, further downward pressure + on WTI is anticipated, likely pushing the price into a lower trading range as + supply outweighs muted demand growth. + langfuse_trace_id: 0319af2ee647fbb845ed33cdb7b97786 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0319af2ee647fbb845ed33cdb7b97786 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:34.203064' + as_of: '2025-05-05T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-03T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 55.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 50.0 + '0.1': 51.5 + '0.2': 53.0 + '0.3': 54.0 + '0.4': 54.8 + '0.5': 55.5 + '0.6': 56.5 + '0.7': 57.5 + '0.8': 58.5 + '0.9': 59.5 + '0.95': 60.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current bearish market sentiment as + of early May 2025. Key factors include the surprise acceleration of OPEC+ production + increases, deteriorating global oil demand projections for 2025, and record + U.S. domestic production. Geopolitical risks are monitored but are not currently + driving the price higher given the strong physical supply signals. + horizon_rationale: "Over a one-month horizon (21 business days), the bearish impacts\ + \ of the expanded OPEC+ supply and the structural slow-down in global demand\ + \ (per IEA forecasts) are expected to fully manifest in the price curve. Unless\ + \ significant geopolitical supply-chain disruptions emerge in the Persian Gulf\u2014\ + which currently remain a latent but non-dominant risk\u2014the bias remains\ + \ skewed to the downside." + langfuse_trace_id: 0319af2ee647fbb845ed33cdb7b97786 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0319af2ee647fbb845ed33cdb7b97786 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:47.312597' + as_of: '2025-05-12T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-05-19T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.2 + '0.2': 59.1 + '0.3': 59.7 + '0.4': 60.1 + '0.5': 60.5 + '0.6': 60.9 + '0.7': 61.4 + '0.8': 62.1 + '0.9': 63.0 + '0.95': 63.8 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the May 2025 context of OPEC+ supply increases + following the unwind of production cuts, coupled with bearish global demand + signals from non-OECD regions. While trade agreements provided short-term relief, + the fundamental path for WTI appears weighted to the downside over the near + term. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf remain a potential source of upside + volatility but do not currently outweigh the downward pressure from fundamental + supply/demand imbalances. + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon (5 days) reflects the market consolidating + after the recent volatility. The recent OPEC+ production adjustment (unwinding + of cuts) and concerns over demand remain bearish, while trade stability (US-China + accord) provides a floor near the $60 level. + langfuse_trace_id: 2665ed97ccae2387bba259ae37335796 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2665ed97ccae2387bba259ae37335796 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:47.312597' + as_of: '2025-05-12T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-10T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 56.2 + '0.2': 57.3 + '0.3': 58.1 + '0.4': 58.6 + '0.5': 59.0 + '0.6': 59.7 + '0.7': 60.5 + '0.8': 61.5 + '0.9': 63.0 + '0.95': 64.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the May 2025 context of OPEC+ supply increases + following the unwind of production cuts, coupled with bearish global demand + signals from non-OECD regions. While trade agreements provided short-term relief, + the fundamental path for WTI appears weighted to the downside over the near + term. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf remain a potential source of upside + volatility but do not currently outweigh the downward pressure from fundamental + supply/demand imbalances. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the cumulative effect of increased OPEC+ + supply and the structural slowdown in global demand growth are expected to drive + prices slightly lower, testing the support levels seen in early May. Risks remain + balanced by potential escalations in Middle East shipping disruptions, but the + base case is a bearish drift. + langfuse_trace_id: 2665ed97ccae2387bba259ae37335796 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2665ed97ccae2387bba259ae37335796 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:59.874672' + as_of: '2025-05-19T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-02T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.8 + '0.2': 59.7 + '0.3': 60.4 + '0.4': 61.0 + '0.5': 61.5 + '0.6': 62.0 + '0.7': 62.8 + '0.8': 63.8 + '0.9': 65.0 + '0.95': 66.8 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a bearish fundamental outlook for WTI in May + 2025. While short-term volatility is present due to geopolitical concerns and + brief periods of improved trade sentiment, the dominant driver remains the structural + concern of global supply growth (including OPEC+ production increases) outpacing + slowing demand growth. Key assumptions include adherence to the communicated + OPEC+ production hike plan and persistent global economic headwinds limiting + upside demand. + horizon_rationale: By the 10-day horizon, the market's focus on the structural + oversupply risk likely resumes. As the reality of increased OPEC+ output nears, + downward pressure on prices will likely intensify, slightly offsetting the relief + seen from trade optimism. + langfuse_trace_id: 4015e0d1ea49ae71528a3f756e9c66b5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4015e0d1ea49ae71528a3f756e9c66b5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:37:59.874672' + as_of: '2025-05-19T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-17T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 56.5 + '0.2': 57.8 + '0.3': 58.8 + '0.4': 59.5 + '0.5': 60.2 + '0.6': 61.0 + '0.7': 61.9 + '0.8': 63.2 + '0.9': 64.8 + '0.95': 66.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a bearish fundamental outlook for WTI in May + 2025. While short-term volatility is present due to geopolitical concerns and + brief periods of improved trade sentiment, the dominant driver remains the structural + concern of global supply growth (including OPEC+ production increases) outpacing + slowing demand growth. Key assumptions include adherence to the communicated + OPEC+ production hike plan and persistent global economic headwinds limiting + upside demand. + horizon_rationale: Over the 21-day horizon, weak global demand growth forecasts + and the scheduled supply expansion by OPEC+ are expected to exert sustained + downward pressure on WTI crude, moving the point forecast toward the $60 support + level. + langfuse_trace_id: 4015e0d1ea49ae71528a3f756e9c66b5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4015e0d1ea49ae71528a3f756e9c66b5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:12.379774' + as_of: '2025-05-26T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-02T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.25 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.5 + '0.1': 59.2 + '0.2': 60.1 + '0.3': 60.6 + '0.4': 60.9 + '0.5': 61.25 + '0.6': 61.6 + '0.7': 62.0 + '0.8': 62.5 + '0.9': 63.2 + '0.95': 63.8 + metadata: + rationale: As of May 26, 2025, the WTI crude market is facing structural headwinds + from aggressive OPEC+ supply-side adjustments (411kb/d increases in May and + June) and cooling demand forecasts. Geopolitical risk premiums in the Persian + Gulf remain secondary to the immediate supply-demand rebalancing, leading to + a bearish bias in the short-to-medium term. The point forecast reflects a cautious + drift toward lower levels, consistent with the trajectory of the preceding month's + price action. + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon reflects continued market digestion of the + accelerating OPEC+ production increases. Prices remain under pressure, but finding + minor consolidation support near the $61/bbl level following last week's stabilization. + langfuse_trace_id: f57ca71b12aeead98b20996f1578e4ca + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f57ca71b12aeead98b20996f1578e4ca +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:12.379774' + as_of: '2025-05-26T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-09T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.4 + '0.2': 59.3 + '0.3': 60.0 + '0.4': 60.4 + '0.5': 60.8 + '0.6': 61.2 + '0.7': 61.7 + '0.8': 62.3 + '0.9': 63.1 + '0.95': 63.9 + metadata: + rationale: As of May 26, 2025, the WTI crude market is facing structural headwinds + from aggressive OPEC+ supply-side adjustments (411kb/d increases in May and + June) and cooling demand forecasts. Geopolitical risk premiums in the Persian + Gulf remain secondary to the immediate supply-demand rebalancing, leading to + a bearish bias in the short-to-medium term. The point forecast reflects a cautious + drift toward lower levels, consistent with the trajectory of the preceding month's + price action. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the market continues to balance macro-economic + slowdown concerns with OPEC+'s supply-side pressure. The trend is expected to + remain slightly bearish as physical stock build expectations persist. + langfuse_trace_id: f57ca71b12aeead98b20996f1578e4ca + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f57ca71b12aeead98b20996f1578e4ca +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:12.379774' + as_of: '2025-05-26T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-24T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 56.2 + '0.2': 57.5 + '0.3': 58.4 + '0.4': 59.0 + '0.5': 59.5 + '0.6': 60.1 + '0.7': 60.8 + '0.8': 61.6 + '0.9': 62.8 + '0.95': 63.5 + metadata: + rationale: As of May 26, 2025, the WTI crude market is facing structural headwinds + from aggressive OPEC+ supply-side adjustments (411kb/d increases in May and + June) and cooling demand forecasts. Geopolitical risk premiums in the Persian + Gulf remain secondary to the immediate supply-demand rebalancing, leading to + a bearish bias in the short-to-medium term. The point forecast reflects a cautious + drift toward lower levels, consistent with the trajectory of the preceding month's + price action. + horizon_rationale: With a one-month horizon, the market is likely to test lower + support levels as the full impact of OPEC+ production increases becomes clearer + and demand growth estimates are revised downward. Geopolitical risk is currently + discounted given the focus on supply surpluses. + langfuse_trace_id: f57ca71b12aeead98b20996f1578e4ca + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f57ca71b12aeead98b20996f1578e4ca +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:24.133068' + as_of: '2025-06-02T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-09T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.2 + '0.2': 59.0 + '0.3': 59.8 + '0.4': 60.2 + '0.5': 60.5 + '0.6': 60.9 + '0.7': 61.5 + '0.8': 62.2 + '0.9': 63.5 + '0.95': 64.5 + metadata: + rationale: Market sentiment remains under pressure following OPEC+ signals to + increase production and broader concerns about global demand. While the market + has shown limited resilience, the fundamental outlook over the next 21 days + leans bearish, constrained by the potential for continued supply growth and + lukewarm economic indicators. + horizon_rationale: As of June 2, 2025, WTI is stabilizing near $60.80. The market + is digesting the OPEC+ decision to continue the gradual unwinding of production + cuts. Near-term price action (5-day) is expected to remain range-bound with + a slight bearish bias as traders await further macro signals and clarity on + demand growth. + langfuse_trace_id: 7b823f609bc4eb20bbdd742589822520 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/7b823f609bc4eb20bbdd742589822520 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:24.133068' + as_of: '2025-06-02T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-16T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.5 + '0.2': 58.5 + '0.3': 59.2 + '0.4': 59.6 + '0.5': 60.0 + '0.6': 60.5 + '0.7': 61.2 + '0.8': 62.0 + '0.9': 63.8 + '0.95': 65.0 + metadata: + rationale: Market sentiment remains under pressure following OPEC+ signals to + increase production and broader concerns about global demand. While the market + has shown limited resilience, the fundamental outlook over the next 21 days + leans bearish, constrained by the potential for continued supply growth and + lukewarm economic indicators. + horizon_rationale: Over a 10-day horizon, concerns regarding global demand growth + and the reality of the increased OPEC+ supply continue to weigh on prices. The + market may test the $57-$58 support level if macroeconomic data from major consumers + remains weak. + langfuse_trace_id: 7b823f609bc4eb20bbdd742589822520 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/7b823f609bc4eb20bbdd742589822520 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:24.133068' + as_of: '2025-06-02T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-01T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 56.5 + '0.2': 57.5 + '0.3': 58.5 + '0.4': 59.0 + '0.5': 59.5 + '0.6': 60.2 + '0.7': 61.0 + '0.8': 62.5 + '0.9': 64.5 + '0.95': 66.0 + metadata: + rationale: Market sentiment remains under pressure following OPEC+ signals to + increase production and broader concerns about global demand. While the market + has shown limited resilience, the fundamental outlook over the next 21 days + leans bearish, constrained by the potential for continued supply growth and + lukewarm economic indicators. + horizon_rationale: For the 21-day horizon, we incorporate a persistent risk of + further downside if the OPEC+ supply increase is viewed as aggressively targeting + market share amidst mediocre demand forecasts. While geopolitical risk is a + background factor, fundamental oversupply concerns dominate the 1-month outlook. + langfuse_trace_id: 7b823f609bc4eb20bbdd742589822520 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/7b823f609bc4eb20bbdd742589822520 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:38.167042' + as_of: '2025-06-09T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-16T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 64.25 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.8 + '0.2': 62.7 + '0.3': 63.3 + '0.4': 63.8 + '0.5': 64.25 + '0.6': 64.7 + '0.7': 65.2 + '0.8': 65.8 + '0.9': 66.7 + '0.95': 67.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecasts incorporate the tension between OPEC+'s planned gradual + production increases and the persistent geopolitical risk premium driven by + Middle Eastern instability and Red Sea maritime disruptions. Prices are expected + to show continued range-bound behavior with a slight bias toward lower levels + due to long-term concerns regarding demand growth and broader macroeconomic + uncertainty. + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon reflects the immediate cooling of the price + spike observed on June 6, 2025, balanced against elevated geopolitical risk + in the Middle East. OPEC+ continuity signal provides a moderate floor, but market + remains range-bound due to demand concerns. + langfuse_trace_id: 2bf2737d23144a9b6e3fe01c2e5e5fe5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2bf2737d23144a9b6e3fe01c2e5e5fe5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:38.167042' + as_of: '2025-06-09T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-23T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 63.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.0 + '0.1': 60.5 + '0.2': 61.5 + '0.3': 62.2 + '0.4': 62.9 + '0.5': 63.5 + '0.6': 64.1 + '0.7': 64.9 + '0.8': 65.8 + '0.9': 67.0 + '0.95': 68.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecasts incorporate the tension between OPEC+'s planned gradual + production increases and the persistent geopolitical risk premium driven by + Middle Eastern instability and Red Sea maritime disruptions. Prices are expected + to show continued range-bound behavior with a slight bias toward lower levels + due to long-term concerns regarding demand growth and broader macroeconomic + uncertainty. + horizon_rationale: Intermediate horizon accounts for the gradual realization of + the July OPEC+ production increases and potential for further normalization + of the geopolitical risk premium if no major maritime disruptions occur. + langfuse_trace_id: 2bf2737d23144a9b6e3fe01c2e5e5fe5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2bf2737d23144a9b6e3fe01c2e5e5fe5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:38.167042' + as_of: '2025-06-09T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-08T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 59.0 + '0.2': 60.2 + '0.3': 61.0 + '0.4': 61.6 + '0.5': 62.0 + '0.6': 62.6 + '0.7': 63.5 + '0.8': 64.8 + '0.9': 66.5 + '0.95': 68.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecasts incorporate the tension between OPEC+'s planned gradual + production increases and the persistent geopolitical risk premium driven by + Middle Eastern instability and Red Sea maritime disruptions. Prices are expected + to show continued range-bound behavior with a slight bias toward lower levels + due to long-term concerns regarding demand growth and broader macroeconomic + uncertainty. + horizon_rationale: Longer horizon reflects fundamental pressures, including increasing + global supply from non-OPEC+ sources and persistent weakness in demand growth, + which may weigh on prices as the month progresses despite regional tensions. + langfuse_trace_id: 2bf2737d23144a9b6e3fe01c2e5e5fe5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2bf2737d23144a9b6e3fe01c2e5e5fe5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:50.698860' + as_of: '2025-06-16T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-23T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 73.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 70.0 + '0.1': 71.2 + '0.2': 72.0 + '0.3': 72.5 + '0.4': 73.0 + '0.5': 73.5 + '0.6': 74.0 + '0.7': 74.5 + '0.8': 75.2 + '0.9': 76.5 + '0.95': 78.0 + metadata: + rationale: "The June 16, 2025 forecast is dominated by the immediate, high-impact\ + \ geopolitical event of the June 13 Israeli strikes. We assume the current risk\ + \ premium (+$5-7/bbl) will persist in the very short term but decay over the\ + \ next three weeks as market participants assess the absence of physical supply\ + \ disruptions. Fundamental headwinds\u2014weakening global demand and the OPEC+\ + \ supply increase\u2014serve as the long-term anchor." + horizon_rationale: Short-term prices are elevated by the risk premium following + the June 13 Israeli strikes on Iran. While actual supply flows are currently + normal, the market is sensitive to any potential escalation affecting the Strait + of Hormuz. We expect volatility to remain high, with prices likely sustaining + the current premium until clarity on the regional situation emerges. + langfuse_trace_id: 6f29cd5a817157c5ed43a0475fb04ba7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/6f29cd5a817157c5ed43a0475fb04ba7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:50.698860' + as_of: '2025-06-16T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-30T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 72.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 68.0 + '0.1': 69.5 + '0.2': 70.5 + '0.3': 71.2 + '0.4': 71.8 + '0.5': 72.5 + '0.6': 73.2 + '0.7': 74.0 + '0.8': 75.0 + '0.9': 76.8 + '0.95': 78.5 + metadata: + rationale: "The June 16, 2025 forecast is dominated by the immediate, high-impact\ + \ geopolitical event of the June 13 Israeli strikes. We assume the current risk\ + \ premium (+$5-7/bbl) will persist in the very short term but decay over the\ + \ next three weeks as market participants assess the absence of physical supply\ + \ disruptions. Fundamental headwinds\u2014weakening global demand and the OPEC+\ + \ supply increase\u2014serve as the long-term anchor." + horizon_rationale: "At the 10-day horizon, assuming no further major escalation,\ + \ the initial shock-driven risk premium should begin to compress. Fundamentals\u2014\ + specifically the gradual unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts and modest global demand\ + \ growth\u2014should re-emerge as the primary price drivers, capping further\ + \ upside." + langfuse_trace_id: 6f29cd5a817157c5ed43a0475fb04ba7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/6f29cd5a817157c5ed43a0475fb04ba7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:38:50.698860' + as_of: '2025-06-16T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-15T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 71.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 65.0 + '0.1': 67.0 + '0.2': 68.5 + '0.3': 69.5 + '0.4': 70.2 + '0.5': 71.0 + '0.6': 71.8 + '0.7': 72.8 + '0.8': 74.0 + '0.9': 76.0 + '0.95': 78.0 + metadata: + rationale: "The June 16, 2025 forecast is dominated by the immediate, high-impact\ + \ geopolitical event of the June 13 Israeli strikes. We assume the current risk\ + \ premium (+$5-7/bbl) will persist in the very short term but decay over the\ + \ next three weeks as market participants assess the absence of physical supply\ + \ disruptions. Fundamental headwinds\u2014weakening global demand and the OPEC+\ + \ supply increase\u2014serve as the long-term anchor." + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, if regional tensions remain contained, + fundamentals are likely to dominate. Downward revisions to 2025 demand forecasts, + combined with the programmed increase in OPEC+ supply, create a bearish underlying + bias. Prices are expected to gravitate back toward the $70-71/bbl level unless + new geopolitical triggers occur. + langfuse_trace_id: 6f29cd5a817157c5ed43a0475fb04ba7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/6f29cd5a817157c5ed43a0475fb04ba7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:03.230060' + as_of: '2025-06-23T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-06-30T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 74.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 71.0 + '0.1': 72.0 + '0.2': 73.0 + '0.3': 73.8 + '0.4': 74.2 + '0.5': 74.5 + '0.6': 74.8 + '0.7': 75.3 + '0.8': 76.0 + '0.9': 77.5 + '0.95': 79.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a tug-of-war between an immediate, high-volatility + geopolitical risk premium following recent Middle East conflict and a fundamental + backdrop characterized by gradual OPEC+ supply increases and softer-than-expected + demand growth in 2025. Prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near + term, with a tendency toward a gradual softening as the market absorbs supply + hikes, provided no major physical supply disruptions occur in the Strait of + Hormuz. + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon dominated by high volatility and sensitivity + to regional geopolitical events in the Persian Gulf. While recent strikes have + elevated the risk premium, the fundamental market balance remains somewhat loose + due to ongoing OPEC+ output increases and weaker demand growth. Expect consolidation + around current levels, with a slight skew toward upside risk if tensions persist. + langfuse_trace_id: 4f3de528db4a4d190be8c61e9cb8d37f + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4f3de528db4a4d190be8c61e9cb8d37f +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:03.230060' + as_of: '2025-06-23T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-07T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 73.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 68.0 + '0.1': 69.5 + '0.2': 71.0 + '0.3': 72.0 + '0.4': 72.8 + '0.5': 73.5 + '0.6': 74.2 + '0.7': 75.0 + '0.8': 76.5 + '0.9': 78.5 + '0.95': 80.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a tug-of-war between an immediate, high-volatility + geopolitical risk premium following recent Middle East conflict and a fundamental + backdrop characterized by gradual OPEC+ supply increases and softer-than-expected + demand growth in 2025. Prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near + term, with a tendency toward a gradual softening as the market absorbs supply + hikes, provided no major physical supply disruptions occur in the Strait of + Hormuz. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the geopolitical risk premium may + begin to wane unless physical supply disruptions manifest. Markets will likely + pivot toward assessing the impact of the scheduled July OPEC+ production increase. + Increased supply combined with softening global demand trends suggests a gradual + easing of the price, though the distribution remains wide due to unpredictable + geopolitical tail risks. + langfuse_trace_id: 4f3de528db4a4d190be8c61e9cb8d37f + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4f3de528db4a4d190be8c61e9cb8d37f +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:03.230060' + as_of: '2025-06-23T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-22T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 72.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 65.0 + '0.1': 67.0 + '0.2': 69.0 + '0.3': 70.5 + '0.4': 71.3 + '0.5': 72.0 + '0.6': 72.8 + '0.7': 74.0 + '0.8': 76.0 + '0.9': 79.0 + '0.95': 82.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a tug-of-war between an immediate, high-volatility + geopolitical risk premium following recent Middle East conflict and a fundamental + backdrop characterized by gradual OPEC+ supply increases and softer-than-expected + demand growth in 2025. Prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near + term, with a tendency toward a gradual softening as the market absorbs supply + hikes, provided no major physical supply disruptions occur in the Strait of + Hormuz. + horizon_rationale: By late July, the combination of incremental OPEC+ supply increases + and persistent concerns over softer global demand growth (particularly in major + economies) is expected to exert downward pressure on WTI. Geopolitical risks + from the Middle East are assumed to persist as a background factor but may be + partially offset by rising physical inventories if actual demand remains lackluster. + The distribution remains skewed toward potential upside due to the high-stakes + conflict, but the central tendency reflects fundamental supply/demand rebalancing. + langfuse_trace_id: 4f3de528db4a4d190be8c61e9cb8d37f + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/4f3de528db4a4d190be8c61e9cb8d37f +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:15.250214' + as_of: '2025-06-30T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-07T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 65.25 + quantiles: + '0.05': 62.1 + '0.1': 63.0 + '0.2': 63.85 + '0.3': 64.4 + '0.4': 64.9 + '0.5': 65.25 + '0.6': 65.7 + '0.7': 66.3 + '0.8': 67.2 + '0.9': 68.4 + '0.95': 69.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is predicated on the removal of the mid-June geopolitical + risk premium following the U.S.-brokered de-escalation between Israel and Iran. + Key assumptions include the continued, measured implementation of the OPEC+ + production unwinding plan for July 2025 and an economic environment characterized + by moderate, non-OECD led demand growth against a backdrop of somewhat tempered + global GDP expectations. + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon (5 days) reflects the immediate market consolidation + following the late-June bearish correction as the geopolitical risk premium + from mid-month tensions evaporated. Market focus has shifted back to fundamental + supply-demand concerns. + langfuse_trace_id: f176c6ab3aa5c6c3a949bb07ba62b1c1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f176c6ab3aa5c6c3a949bb07ba62b1c1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:15.250214' + as_of: '2025-06-30T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-14T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 64.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.8 + '0.2': 62.9 + '0.3': 63.7 + '0.4': 64.3 + '0.5': 64.8 + '0.6': 65.4 + '0.7': 66.1 + '0.8': 67.1 + '0.9': 68.8 + '0.95': 70.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is predicated on the removal of the mid-June geopolitical + risk premium following the U.S.-brokered de-escalation between Israel and Iran. + Key assumptions include the continued, measured implementation of the OPEC+ + production unwinding plan for July 2025 and an economic environment characterized + by moderate, non-OECD led demand growth against a backdrop of somewhat tempered + global GDP expectations. + horizon_rationale: Over 10 days, the market continues to react to the planned + July OPEC+ production increases. Increased supply, combined with modest global + demand growth concerns, is expected to maintain mild downward pressure on WTI. + langfuse_trace_id: f176c6ab3aa5c6c3a949bb07ba62b1c1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f176c6ab3aa5c6c3a949bb07ba62b1c1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:15.250214' + as_of: '2025-06-30T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-29T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 63.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.0 + '0.1': 59.5 + '0.2': 61.0 + '0.3': 62.0 + '0.4': 62.8 + '0.5': 63.5 + '0.6': 64.3 + '0.7': 65.2 + '0.8': 66.8 + '0.9': 69.0 + '0.95': 71.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is predicated on the removal of the mid-June geopolitical + risk premium following the U.S.-brokered de-escalation between Israel and Iran. + Key assumptions include the continued, measured implementation of the OPEC+ + production unwinding plan for July 2025 and an economic environment characterized + by moderate, non-OECD led demand growth against a backdrop of somewhat tempered + global GDP expectations. + horizon_rationale: Looking 21 days out, the impact of the incremental OPEC+ supply + is more fully absorbed. Barring new geopolitical shocks in the Middle East, + the structural environment of returning supply and cooling economic growth projections + supports a drift toward the lower end of the recent range. + langfuse_trace_id: f176c6ab3aa5c6c3a949bb07ba62b1c1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/f176c6ab3aa5c6c3a949bb07ba62b1c1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:28.191823' + as_of: '2025-07-07T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-14T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 66.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.5 + '0.1': 65.1 + '0.2': 65.6 + '0.3': 66.1 + '0.4': 66.5 + '0.5': 66.8 + '0.6': 67.2 + '0.7': 67.7 + '0.8': 68.3 + '0.9': 69.1 + '0.95': 69.8 + metadata: + rationale: Market sentiment as of July 7, 2025, is defined by the tension between + OPEC+ supply expansion (July/August) and lingering geopolitical risk premiums + in the Middle East. Demand growth remains sluggish, providing a cap on upside. + Forecasts incorporate a gradual, cautious trajectory for WTI, with risk distributions + reflecting the unpredictable nature of regional geopolitical instability. + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon (5 days) remains anchored to the $66.50 + close, reflecting the tug-of-war between OPEC+ production increases (August + planned adjustment) and lingering geopolitical risk premiums. Modest upside + bias is incorporated as markets assess potential supply tightening vs. subdued + demand expectations. + langfuse_trace_id: 78267ca2127a0731617621c9e22be2b1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/78267ca2127a0731617621c9e22be2b1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:28.191823' + as_of: '2025-07-07T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-21T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.8 + '0.1': 64.6 + '0.2': 65.3 + '0.3': 66.0 + '0.4': 66.7 + '0.5': 67.2 + '0.6': 67.8 + '0.7': 68.5 + '0.8': 69.4 + '0.9': 70.6 + '0.95': 71.5 + metadata: + rationale: Market sentiment as of July 7, 2025, is defined by the tension between + OPEC+ supply expansion (July/August) and lingering geopolitical risk premiums + in the Middle East. Demand growth remains sluggish, providing a cap on upside. + Forecasts incorporate a gradual, cautious trajectory for WTI, with risk distributions + reflecting the unpredictable nature of regional geopolitical instability. + horizon_rationale: Over 10 days, the impact of the upcoming August OPEC+ production + adjustment may begin to be priced in, potentially exerting moderate downward + pressure. However, persistent Middle Eastern geopolitical volatility provides + a floor for prices. Distribution widens as uncertainty persists. + langfuse_trace_id: 78267ca2127a0731617621c9e22be2b1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/78267ca2127a0731617621c9e22be2b1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:28.191823' + as_of: '2025-07-07T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-05T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 62.0 + '0.1': 63.2 + '0.2': 64.5 + '0.3': 65.7 + '0.4': 66.6 + '0.5': 67.5 + '0.6': 68.4 + '0.7': 69.5 + '0.8': 70.8 + '0.9': 72.5 + '0.95': 73.8 + metadata: + rationale: Market sentiment as of July 7, 2025, is defined by the tension between + OPEC+ supply expansion (July/August) and lingering geopolitical risk premiums + in the Middle East. Demand growth remains sluggish, providing a cap on upside. + Forecasts incorporate a gradual, cautious trajectory for WTI, with risk distributions + reflecting the unpredictable nature of regional geopolitical instability. + horizon_rationale: The 21-day horizon balances the structural supply increase + from OPEC+ against a macro environment of weak demand growth (IEA forecasts) + and high interest rate impacts on consumption. The wide range reflects significant + upside potential if geopolitical shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz + escalate. + langfuse_trace_id: 78267ca2127a0731617621c9e22be2b1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/78267ca2127a0731617621c9e22be2b1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:39.607837' + as_of: '2025-07-14T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-21T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.25 + quantiles: + '0.05': 65.5 + '0.1': 66.2 + '0.2': 67.0 + '0.3': 67.6 + '0.4': 67.9 + '0.5': 68.25 + '0.6': 68.7 + '0.7': 69.2 + '0.8': 69.8 + '0.9': 70.5 + '0.95': 71.2 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecasts are centered around the current trading range of $68, + reflecting a market in a state of high sensitivity. The primary drivers are: + 1) OPEC+ supply policy (gradual unwinding of cuts); 2) Subdued global demand + forecasts, particularly from emerging markets; and 3) An persistent but volatile + geopolitical risk premium from Middle East tensions. The probabilistic distribution + acknowledges that while the base case is a slight decline or sideways movement, + the volatility of the geopolitical risk justifies a wider range for the upper + quantiles.' + horizon_rationale: Short-term outlook is cautious due to balanced fundamentals. + The OPEC+ commitment to August production adjustments (548,000 bpd increase) + and slow demand growth in China create a ceiling. However, geopolitical risk + in the Middle East prevents a significant downside break. + langfuse_trace_id: 0ab50b4617211cf5c81bd7ec1acb87eb + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0ab50b4617211cf5c81bd7ec1acb87eb +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:39.607837' + as_of: '2025-07-14T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-28T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.5 + '0.1': 65.2 + '0.2': 66.0 + '0.3': 66.8 + '0.4': 67.4 + '0.5': 68.0 + '0.6': 68.6 + '0.7': 69.4 + '0.8': 70.2 + '0.9': 71.2 + '0.95': 72.0 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecasts are centered around the current trading range of $68, + reflecting a market in a state of high sensitivity. The primary drivers are: + 1) OPEC+ supply policy (gradual unwinding of cuts); 2) Subdued global demand + forecasts, particularly from emerging markets; and 3) An persistent but volatile + geopolitical risk premium from Middle East tensions. The probabilistic distribution + acknowledges that while the base case is a slight decline or sideways movement, + the volatility of the geopolitical risk justifies a wider range for the upper + quantiles.' + horizon_rationale: Over 10 days, market focus shifts to US inventory trends and + the efficacy of OPEC+ compliance. With global demand growth soft, the risk is + skewed slightly to the downside if inventory data shows build-ups, though the + geopolitical premium maintains a floor. + langfuse_trace_id: 0ab50b4617211cf5c81bd7ec1acb87eb + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0ab50b4617211cf5c81bd7ec1acb87eb +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:39.607837' + as_of: '2025-07-14T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-12T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.0 + '0.1': 64.0 + '0.2': 65.0 + '0.3': 66.0 + '0.4': 66.8 + '0.5': 67.5 + '0.6': 68.2 + '0.7': 69.2 + '0.8': 70.5 + '0.9': 72.0 + '0.95': 73.0 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecasts are centered around the current trading range of $68, + reflecting a market in a state of high sensitivity. The primary drivers are: + 1) OPEC+ supply policy (gradual unwinding of cuts); 2) Subdued global demand + forecasts, particularly from emerging markets; and 3) An persistent but volatile + geopolitical risk premium from Middle East tensions. The probabilistic distribution + acknowledges that while the base case is a slight decline or sideways movement, + the volatility of the geopolitical risk justifies a wider range for the upper + quantiles.' + horizon_rationale: Looking 21 days out, the gradual return of OPEC+ production + volume is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, assuming no major escalation + in the Middle East. Increased US SPR acquisition could provide moderate support, + but the overall growth trend remains subdued. + langfuse_trace_id: 0ab50b4617211cf5c81bd7ec1acb87eb + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0ab50b4617211cf5c81bd7ec1acb87eb +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:51.376417' + as_of: '2025-07-21T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-07-28T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.5 + '0.1': 65.2 + '0.2': 66.0 + '0.3': 66.7 + '0.4': 67.1 + '0.5': 67.5 + '0.6': 67.9 + '0.7': 68.4 + '0.8': 69.2 + '0.9': 70.3 + '0.95': 71.5 + metadata: + rationale: "The July 2025 forecast is shaped by a tug-of-war between persistent,\ + \ high-impact geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf and structural fundamental\ + \ headwinds\u2014specifically, the IEA's report of significantly lower-than-anticipated\ + \ global oil demand growth and the ongoing, phased supply increases from OPEC+.\ + \ We anticipate WTI to remain range-bound, sensitive to shipping lane news but\ + \ fundamentally constrained by demand trends." + horizon_rationale: 'Short-term sentiment is currently dominated by a balancing + act: geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf provides a floor for prices, while + easing demand growth and OPEC+''s planned supply restoration put a ceiling on + upside. Given the current price of $67.34, we expect moderate mean reversion + towards the $67.50 level as markets digest the latest geopolitical stability + signals.' + langfuse_trace_id: 3ac118feb9ce714dc6ab94db6b61bf74 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3ac118feb9ce714dc6ab94db6b61bf74 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:51.376417' + as_of: '2025-07-21T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-04T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.5 + '0.1': 64.5 + '0.2': 65.8 + '0.3': 66.8 + '0.4': 67.5 + '0.5': 68.0 + '0.6': 68.6 + '0.7': 69.5 + '0.8': 70.5 + '0.9': 71.8 + '0.95': 73.0 + metadata: + rationale: "The July 2025 forecast is shaped by a tug-of-war between persistent,\ + \ high-impact geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf and structural fundamental\ + \ headwinds\u2014specifically, the IEA's report of significantly lower-than-anticipated\ + \ global oil demand growth and the ongoing, phased supply increases from OPEC+.\ + \ We anticipate WTI to remain range-bound, sensitive to shipping lane news but\ + \ fundamentally constrained by demand trends." + horizon_rationale: Over 10 business days, the market will likely continue to price + in the geopolitical uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz. With OPEC+ keeping + production adjustments flexible, we expect a modest upward drift in prices as + risk premiums persist, offset by the cooling demand outlook reported by the + IEA. + langfuse_trace_id: 3ac118feb9ce714dc6ab94db6b61bf74 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3ac118feb9ce714dc6ab94db6b61bf74 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:39:51.376417' + as_of: '2025-07-21T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-19T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 68.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 62.0 + '0.1': 63.5 + '0.2': 65.0 + '0.3': 66.5 + '0.4': 67.6 + '0.5': 68.5 + '0.6': 69.4 + '0.7': 70.5 + '0.8': 71.8 + '0.9': 73.5 + '0.95': 75.0 + metadata: + rationale: "The July 2025 forecast is shaped by a tug-of-war between persistent,\ + \ high-impact geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf and structural fundamental\ + \ headwinds\u2014specifically, the IEA's report of significantly lower-than-anticipated\ + \ global oil demand growth and the ongoing, phased supply increases from OPEC+.\ + \ We anticipate WTI to remain range-bound, sensitive to shipping lane news but\ + \ fundamentally constrained by demand trends." + horizon_rationale: Looking out to 21 business days, the structural factors (OPEC+ + supply plans, slowing demand) likely exert more influence than immediate, temporary + shipping noise. We forecast a range-bound path for WTI, with the potential for + upside if geopolitical tensions escalate significantly, but capped by the fundamental + bearishness of lower annual demand growth. + langfuse_trace_id: 3ac118feb9ce714dc6ab94db6b61bf74 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3ac118feb9ce714dc6ab94db6b61bf74 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:04.504191' + as_of: '2025-07-28T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-04T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 65.4 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.8 + '0.1': 64.2 + '0.2': 64.6 + '0.3': 64.95 + '0.4': 65.2 + '0.5': 65.4 + '0.6': 65.65 + '0.7': 65.9 + '0.8': 66.25 + '0.9': 66.8 + '0.95': 67.3 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current context where oil prices are + capped by weak global demand projections and supported by persistent, but intermittent, + geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. OPEC+ continues to monitor supply + and has signaled a flexible, data-driven approach to production, which limits + significant directional price movement in the absence of new, major supply disruptions. + Quantitative ranges widen as the horizon increases to account for potential + escalations in geopolitical conflict or shifts in market sentiment regarding + economic health. + horizon_rationale: Short-term consolidation as markets weigh weak global demand + growth against persistent geopolitical risk premiums related to Middle East + shipping chokepoints. + langfuse_trace_id: 02bb643800d4713816c013fcfb20f419 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/02bb643800d4713816c013fcfb20f419 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:04.504191' + as_of: '2025-07-28T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-11T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 65.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 63.2 + '0.1': 63.8 + '0.2': 64.5 + '0.3': 65.0 + '0.4': 65.45 + '0.5': 65.8 + '0.6': 66.2 + '0.7': 66.7 + '0.8': 67.4 + '0.9': 68.2 + '0.95': 68.9 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current context where oil prices are + capped by weak global demand projections and supported by persistent, but intermittent, + geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. OPEC+ continues to monitor supply + and has signaled a flexible, data-driven approach to production, which limits + significant directional price movement in the absence of new, major supply disruptions. + Quantitative ranges widen as the horizon increases to account for potential + escalations in geopolitical conflict or shifts in market sentiment regarding + economic health. + horizon_rationale: Market remains balanced between slow economic expansion and + the risk of supply disruptions. OPEC+ maintains flexibility to manage supply + levels, anchoring the mid-range. + langfuse_trace_id: 02bb643800d4713816c013fcfb20f419 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/02bb643800d4713816c013fcfb20f419 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:04.504191' + as_of: '2025-07-28T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-26T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 66.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 61.5 + '0.1': 62.5 + '0.2': 63.8 + '0.3': 65.0 + '0.4': 65.8 + '0.5': 66.5 + '0.6': 67.3 + '0.7': 68.2 + '0.8': 69.5 + '0.9': 71.0 + '0.95': 72.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current context where oil prices are + capped by weak global demand projections and supported by persistent, but intermittent, + geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. OPEC+ continues to monitor supply + and has signaled a flexible, data-driven approach to production, which limits + significant directional price movement in the absence of new, major supply disruptions. + Quantitative ranges widen as the horizon increases to account for potential + escalations in geopolitical conflict or shifts in market sentiment regarding + economic health. + horizon_rationale: Over 21 days, higher volatility reflects uncertainty around + the durability of the current geopolitical risk premium and whether demand statistics + provide support for current price levels. + langfuse_trace_id: 02bb643800d4713816c013fcfb20f419 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/02bb643800d4713816c013fcfb20f419 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:17.760333' + as_of: '2025-08-04T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-11T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 64.5 + '0.1': 65.2 + '0.2': 66.0 + '0.3': 66.6 + '0.4': 67.1 + '0.5': 67.5 + '0.6': 67.9 + '0.7': 68.4 + '0.8': 69.2 + '0.9': 70.3 + '0.95': 71.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current market context of early August + 2025, where oil prices are balancing the downward pressure from accelerated + OPEC+ production increases against the upside potential of persistent geopolitical + risk in the Persian Gulf. The market is increasingly focused on the structural + supply surplus and a cautious global demand outlook. My point forecasts reflect + a gradual drift lower as the market adjusts to the supply increases, with quantiles + reflecting the inherent volatility associated with potential geopolitical escalation. + horizon_rationale: Over the 5-day horizon, prices are likely to remain range-bound + near current levels ($67.33). The market is digesting the recent OPEC+ production + increases of 548,000 bpd which took effect August 1. While geopolitical risks + in the Persian Gulf provide a floor, the bearish sentiment driven by the prospect + of a supply surplus and slowing demand keeps the upside constrained. + langfuse_trace_id: a843cebe83a57ab9dbe6a9c9bcb23ce1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a843cebe83a57ab9dbe6a9c9bcb23ce1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:17.760333' + as_of: '2025-08-04T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-18T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 67.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 62.5 + '0.1': 63.5 + '0.2': 64.8 + '0.3': 65.6 + '0.4': 66.3 + '0.5': 67.0 + '0.6': 67.7 + '0.7': 68.5 + '0.8': 69.8 + '0.9': 71.5 + '0.95': 73.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current market context of early August + 2025, where oil prices are balancing the downward pressure from accelerated + OPEC+ production increases against the upside potential of persistent geopolitical + risk in the Persian Gulf. The market is increasingly focused on the structural + supply surplus and a cautious global demand outlook. My point forecasts reflect + a gradual drift lower as the market adjusts to the supply increases, with quantiles + reflecting the inherent volatility associated with potential geopolitical escalation. + horizon_rationale: By the 10-day horizon, the impact of increased OPEC+ supply + becomes more pronounced. Continued lack of strong demand signals from major + economies will likely pressure prices lower. Geopolitical risk premiums remain + present, but in the absence of an actual disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, + the fundamental oversupply narrative is expected to dominate. + langfuse_trace_id: a843cebe83a57ab9dbe6a9c9bcb23ce1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a843cebe83a57ab9dbe6a9c9bcb23ce1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:17.760333' + as_of: '2025-08-04T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-02T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 65.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.0 + '0.1': 60.5 + '0.2': 62.0 + '0.3': 63.5 + '0.4': 64.5 + '0.5': 65.5 + '0.6': 66.8 + '0.7': 68.0 + '0.8': 70.0 + '0.9': 72.5 + '0.95': 75.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the current market context of early August + 2025, where oil prices are balancing the downward pressure from accelerated + OPEC+ production increases against the upside potential of persistent geopolitical + risk in the Persian Gulf. The market is increasingly focused on the structural + supply surplus and a cautious global demand outlook. My point forecasts reflect + a gradual drift lower as the market adjusts to the supply increases, with quantiles + reflecting the inherent volatility associated with potential geopolitical escalation. + horizon_rationale: "At the 21-day horizon, the market expectation of a persistent\ + \ supply surplus\u2014compounded by the recent OPEC+ production increases\u2014\ + favors a bearish bias. Unless regional tensions in the Middle East escalate\ + \ into a genuine supply blockage, the trend is expected to remain tilted to\ + \ the downside, consistent with the broader 2025 forecast of declining prices." + langfuse_trace_id: a843cebe83a57ab9dbe6a9c9bcb23ce1 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a843cebe83a57ab9dbe6a9c9bcb23ce1 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:29.792721' + as_of: '2025-08-11T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-18T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 63.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.2 + '0.2': 62.0 + '0.3': 62.7 + '0.4': 63.1 + '0.5': 63.5 + '0.6': 63.9 + '0.7': 64.4 + '0.8': 65.2 + '0.9': 66.3 + '0.95': 67.2 + metadata: + rationale: The August 2025 oil market is characterized by a bearish fundamental + outlook driven by OPEC+ accelerating the reversal of voluntary production cuts + and global demand growth failing to meet original 2025 expectations. Geopolitical + risk premiums from earlier in the summer have moderated significantly, allowing + market fundamentals (supply surplus/demand weakness) to dominate the price trajectory. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure remains due to the recent increase in OPEC+ + production effective August 1. Market sentiment is bearish, focused on the transition + to a potential surplus. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf are currently + perceived as lower than in previous months, limiting upside volatility. + langfuse_trace_id: c6fd86032521446daddfcfd7a56cd795 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/c6fd86032521446daddfcfd7a56cd795 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:29.792721' + as_of: '2025-08-11T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-25T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 63.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.5 + '0.1': 60.2 + '0.2': 61.2 + '0.3': 62.0 + '0.4': 62.6 + '0.5': 63.0 + '0.6': 63.5 + '0.7': 64.0 + '0.8': 64.9 + '0.9': 66.0 + '0.95': 67.0 + metadata: + rationale: The August 2025 oil market is characterized by a bearish fundamental + outlook driven by OPEC+ accelerating the reversal of voluntary production cuts + and global demand growth failing to meet original 2025 expectations. Geopolitical + risk premiums from earlier in the summer have moderated significantly, allowing + market fundamentals (supply surplus/demand weakness) to dominate the price trajectory. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the market is likely to continue pricing + in the combined effect of the OPEC+ production increases and sluggish global + demand growth. Barring a new, significant geopolitical incident in the Middle + East, the fundamental bearish bias is expected to persist. + langfuse_trace_id: c6fd86032521446daddfcfd7a56cd795 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/c6fd86032521446daddfcfd7a56cd795 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:29.792721' + as_of: '2025-08-11T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-09T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.5 + '0.2': 59.8 + '0.3': 60.8 + '0.4': 61.5 + '0.5': 62.0 + '0.6': 62.7 + '0.7': 63.5 + '0.8': 64.5 + '0.9': 66.0 + '0.95': 67.5 + metadata: + rationale: The August 2025 oil market is characterized by a bearish fundamental + outlook driven by OPEC+ accelerating the reversal of voluntary production cuts + and global demand growth failing to meet original 2025 expectations. Geopolitical + risk premiums from earlier in the summer have moderated significantly, allowing + market fundamentals (supply surplus/demand weakness) to dominate the price trajectory. + horizon_rationale: By the end of the one-month horizon, the market will be looking + ahead to September OPEC+ production updates. Given the persistent downward revisions + to global oil demand and the scheduled expansion of supply, the baseline scenario + leans toward a continued, gradual softening of prices. + langfuse_trace_id: c6fd86032521446daddfcfd7a56cd795 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/c6fd86032521446daddfcfd7a56cd795 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:42.036250' + as_of: '2025-08-18T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-08-25T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.2 + '0.2': 61.8 + '0.3': 62.1 + '0.4': 62.3 + '0.5': 62.5 + '0.6': 62.8 + '0.7': 63.2 + '0.8': 63.8 + '0.9': 64.5 + '0.95': 65.2 + metadata: + rationale: As of August 18, 2025, WTI crude is trending lower, influenced by the + OPEC+ decision to accelerate the phase-out of voluntary production cuts, which + is creating expectations of a persistent inventory build. Global demand forecasts + have been repeatedly downgraded throughout 2025. Despite lingering geopolitical + risks in the Persian Gulf, the dominant market theme is the transition toward + a well-supplied market, which is driving a downward revision of short-to-medium-term + price expectations. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure remains elevated due to the OPEC+ supply + increase effective August 1. Markets are consolidating after recent losses. + The 5-day horizon reflects a slight bias toward further testing of the $62 support + level, given bearish momentum in energy markets and concerns over global demand + growth. + langfuse_trace_id: 87a33b541b5cf3b34c9d546aed5e688e + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/87a33b541b5cf3b34c9d546aed5e688e +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:42.036250' + as_of: '2025-08-18T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-16T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.2 + '0.2': 59.0 + '0.3': 59.7 + '0.4': 60.1 + '0.5': 60.5 + '0.6': 61.0 + '0.7': 61.8 + '0.8': 62.8 + '0.9': 63.8 + '0.95': 64.5 + metadata: + rationale: As of August 18, 2025, WTI crude is trending lower, influenced by the + OPEC+ decision to accelerate the phase-out of voluntary production cuts, which + is creating expectations of a persistent inventory build. Global demand forecasts + have been repeatedly downgraded throughout 2025. Despite lingering geopolitical + risks in the Persian Gulf, the dominant market theme is the transition toward + a well-supplied market, which is driving a downward revision of short-to-medium-term + price expectations. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the cumulative effect of increased OPEC+ + supply and lack of a strong demand-side catalyst suggests a gradual drift toward + the lower bound of recent trading ranges. While geopolitical risk in the Persian + Gulf persists, the market is currently discounting its impact in favor of the + fundamental supply surplus narrative. + langfuse_trace_id: 87a33b541b5cf3b34c9d546aed5e688e + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/87a33b541b5cf3b34c9d546aed5e688e +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:54.071284' + as_of: '2025-08-25T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-08T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 63.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.5 + '0.1': 60.5 + '0.2': 61.5 + '0.3': 62.2 + '0.4': 62.6 + '0.5': 63.0 + '0.6': 63.5 + '0.7': 64.1 + '0.8': 64.8 + '0.9': 66.0 + '0.95': 67.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the August 2025 environment characterized + by an imminent increase in OPEC+ supply (September 1st) and concerns over cooling + demand. Prices are caught between the bearish pressure of increasing production + and the supportive impact of a geopolitical risk premium. As of August 25, 2025, + the market is range-bound but trending slightly bearish for the medium term + as the market adjusts to the new supply reality. + horizon_rationale: Downward pressure persists as the September 1st OPEC+ production + hike approaches, potentially leading to a slight softening of WTI prices as + supply-demand surplus expectations grow. + langfuse_trace_id: 519de1930b225dbdcbbf65261208797c + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/519de1930b225dbdcbbf65261208797c +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:40:54.071284' + as_of: '2025-08-25T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-23T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.8 + '0.2': 60.2 + '0.3': 61.1 + '0.4': 61.6 + '0.5': 62.0 + '0.6': 62.6 + '0.7': 63.3 + '0.8': 64.2 + '0.9': 65.8 + '0.95': 67.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in the August 2025 environment characterized + by an imminent increase in OPEC+ supply (September 1st) and concerns over cooling + demand. Prices are caught between the bearish pressure of increasing production + and the supportive impact of a geopolitical risk premium. As of August 25, 2025, + the market is range-bound but trending slightly bearish for the medium term + as the market adjusts to the new supply reality. + horizon_rationale: Longer-horizon forecast reflects the structural bearish impact + of realized OPEC+ production increases alongside ongoing concerns about cooling + global demand growth. Geopolitical risk remains the primary floor preventing + a sharper correction. + langfuse_trace_id: 519de1930b225dbdcbbf65261208797c + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/519de1930b225dbdcbbf65261208797c +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:06.526412' + as_of: '2025-09-01T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-08T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 63.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.2 + '0.2': 62.0 + '0.3': 62.6 + '0.4': 63.1 + '0.5': 63.5 + '0.6': 64.0 + '0.7': 64.5 + '0.8': 65.2 + '0.9': 66.2 + '0.95': 67.0 + metadata: + rationale: The September 2025 WTI market outlook is dominated by bearish sentiment + stemming from the OPEC+ decision to initiate a 547,000 bpd supply increase, + combined with concerns about stagnant global demand growth. While geopolitical + risks in the Persian Gulf and U.S. SPR management strategies provide a potential + buffer against extreme price shocks, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance + creates a clear downward price trajectory for the month. + horizon_rationale: As of September 1, 2025, the market is bearish due to the OPEC+ + decision to increase output by 547k bpd and persistent concerns over global + demand. Short-term price action is expected to grind lower as these supply increases + reach the market. + langfuse_trace_id: 3be199674ad03868bb73d01c3522dce5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3be199674ad03868bb73d01c3522dce5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:06.526412' + as_of: '2025-09-01T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-15T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.5 + '0.1': 60.2 + '0.2': 61.2 + '0.3': 61.9 + '0.4': 62.4 + '0.5': 62.8 + '0.6': 63.3 + '0.7': 63.9 + '0.8': 64.8 + '0.9': 65.8 + '0.95': 66.8 + metadata: + rationale: The September 2025 WTI market outlook is dominated by bearish sentiment + stemming from the OPEC+ decision to initiate a 547,000 bpd supply increase, + combined with concerns about stagnant global demand growth. While geopolitical + risks in the Persian Gulf and U.S. SPR management strategies provide a potential + buffer against extreme price shocks, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance + creates a clear downward price trajectory for the month. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the market will likely consolidate + around the bearish fundamentals. The impact of the increased supply will be + more fully integrated into pricing, and concerns about potential storage builds + will likely sustain downward pressure. + langfuse_trace_id: 3be199674ad03868bb73d01c3522dce5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3be199674ad03868bb73d01c3522dce5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:06.526412' + as_of: '2025-09-01T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-30T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.0 + '0.1': 59.0 + '0.2': 59.8 + '0.3': 60.5 + '0.4': 61.1 + '0.5': 61.5 + '0.6': 62.1 + '0.7': 62.8 + '0.8': 63.9 + '0.9': 65.0 + '0.95': 66.0 + metadata: + rationale: The September 2025 WTI market outlook is dominated by bearish sentiment + stemming from the OPEC+ decision to initiate a 547,000 bpd supply increase, + combined with concerns about stagnant global demand growth. While geopolitical + risks in the Persian Gulf and U.S. SPR management strategies provide a potential + buffer against extreme price shocks, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance + creates a clear downward price trajectory for the month. + horizon_rationale: By the end of the month, the full weight of the OPEC+ supply + increase and weak demand data likely drives prices toward the lower bound of + recent ranges. Geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf provides a moderate floor, + preventing a collapse, but the primary trend remains lower. + langfuse_trace_id: 3be199674ad03868bb73d01c3522dce5 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/3be199674ad03868bb73d01c3522dce5 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:19.540538' + as_of: '2025-09-08T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-15T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.5 + '0.1': 59.5 + '0.2': 60.2 + '0.3': 60.8 + '0.4': 61.2 + '0.5': 61.5 + '0.6': 61.9 + '0.7': 62.5 + '0.8': 63.5 + '0.9': 64.8 + '0.95': 66.0 + metadata: + rationale: The WTI forecast is driven by the bearish fundamental environment characterized + by OPEC+ decisions to unwind voluntary production cuts and concerns over muted + global demand growth for 2025. While geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf + provide a floor for volatility, the current trend is tilted downward as the + market anticipates global inventory accumulation. + horizon_rationale: Short-term momentum is bearish following the dip to $61.87. + Expectations of increasing supply from OPEC+ beginning in September are outweighing + demand concerns for the immediate horizon. + langfuse_trace_id: ffd96184cf4c9157fbea1627b247e627 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ffd96184cf4c9157fbea1627b247e627 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:19.540538' + as_of: '2025-09-08T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-22T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.8 + '0.2': 59.5 + '0.3': 60.2 + '0.4': 60.6 + '0.5': 61.0 + '0.6': 61.6 + '0.7': 62.3 + '0.8': 63.2 + '0.9': 64.5 + '0.95': 65.5 + metadata: + rationale: The WTI forecast is driven by the bearish fundamental environment characterized + by OPEC+ decisions to unwind voluntary production cuts and concerns over muted + global demand growth for 2025. While geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf + provide a floor for volatility, the current trend is tilted downward as the + market anticipates global inventory accumulation. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the market will likely continue to + digest the implications of the OPEC+ production increase. Technical downside + support near $57 is a significant buffer, but persistent oversupply sentiment + keeps the skew slightly to the downside. + langfuse_trace_id: ffd96184cf4c9157fbea1627b247e627 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ffd96184cf4c9157fbea1627b247e627 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:19.540538' + as_of: '2025-09-08T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-07T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 58.0 + '0.2': 59.0 + '0.3': 59.8 + '0.4': 60.2 + '0.5': 60.5 + '0.6': 61.2 + '0.7': 62.0 + '0.8': 63.0 + '0.9': 64.2 + '0.95': 65.5 + metadata: + rationale: The WTI forecast is driven by the bearish fundamental environment characterized + by OPEC+ decisions to unwind voluntary production cuts and concerns over muted + global demand growth for 2025. While geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf + provide a floor for volatility, the current trend is tilted downward as the + market anticipates global inventory accumulation. + horizon_rationale: By the end of the month, the market will have clearer data + on actual OPEC+ export levels and the status of global inventory builds. Barring + a major geopolitical disruption in the Persian Gulf, the structural oversupply + remains the dominant driver, keeping prices subdued toward the 52-week lows. + langfuse_trace_id: ffd96184cf4c9157fbea1627b247e627 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ffd96184cf4c9157fbea1627b247e627 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:32.291195' + as_of: '2025-09-15T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-22T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.0 + '0.2': 61.5 + '0.3': 62.0 + '0.4': 62.2 + '0.5': 62.5 + '0.6': 62.8 + '0.7': 63.2 + '0.8': 63.8 + '0.9': 64.5 + '0.95': 65.5 + metadata: + rationale: "The forecast is driven by the consensus of an oversupplied market\ + \ in the latter half of 2025, with OPEC+ deliberately unwinding production cuts.\ + \ Current prices are seen as being supported by geopolitical risk, but fundamental\ + \ supply-demand dynamics\u2014including sluggish global growth and rising inventories\u2014\ + favor a slight downward drift over the next month." + horizon_rationale: As of September 15, 2025, WTI prices are range-bound, pressured + by increasing OPEC+ supply (unwinding cuts) and concerns over sluggish global + demand growth. While geopolitical risks provide a floor, the short-term outlook + is for continued consolidation near current levels as the market digests recent + OPEC+ production adjustments. + langfuse_trace_id: a250f7c7c0b44c7fecda1f548e2dd442 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a250f7c7c0b44c7fecda1f548e2dd442 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:32.291195' + as_of: '2025-09-15T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-29T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.5 + '0.1': 60.0 + '0.2': 60.8 + '0.3': 61.3 + '0.4': 61.6 + '0.5': 62.0 + '0.6': 62.5 + '0.7': 63.0 + '0.8': 63.8 + '0.9': 64.8 + '0.95': 66.0 + metadata: + rationale: "The forecast is driven by the consensus of an oversupplied market\ + \ in the latter half of 2025, with OPEC+ deliberately unwinding production cuts.\ + \ Current prices are seen as being supported by geopolitical risk, but fundamental\ + \ supply-demand dynamics\u2014including sluggish global growth and rising inventories\u2014\ + favor a slight downward drift over the next month." + horizon_rationale: Over the 10-day horizon, the cumulative effect of increased + OPEC+ supply (September-October adjustments) begins to exert more downward pressure + on prices as inventory data likely starts to reflect the additional barrels, + balanced by ongoing geopolitical monitoring. + langfuse_trace_id: a250f7c7c0b44c7fecda1f548e2dd442 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a250f7c7c0b44c7fecda1f548e2dd442 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:32.291195' + as_of: '2025-09-15T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-14T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.5 + '0.2': 59.5 + '0.3': 60.2 + '0.4': 60.6 + '0.5': 61.0 + '0.6': 61.7 + '0.7': 62.5 + '0.8': 63.5 + '0.9': 64.5 + '0.95': 66.0 + metadata: + rationale: "The forecast is driven by the consensus of an oversupplied market\ + \ in the latter half of 2025, with OPEC+ deliberately unwinding production cuts.\ + \ Current prices are seen as being supported by geopolitical risk, but fundamental\ + \ supply-demand dynamics\u2014including sluggish global growth and rising inventories\u2014\ + favor a slight downward drift over the next month." + horizon_rationale: At the 21-day horizon, the persistent expectation of a potential + supply surplus heading toward year-end is expected to drive a slight downward + trend in WTI. Seasonal refinery maintenance reducing throughput is likely to + further dampen crude demand, keeping upside limited unless significant geopolitical + disruption occurs. + langfuse_trace_id: a250f7c7c0b44c7fecda1f548e2dd442 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a250f7c7c0b44c7fecda1f548e2dd442 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:53.966738' + as_of: '2025-09-22T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-09-29T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 60.5 + '0.1': 61.0 + '0.2': 61.5 + '0.3': 61.9 + '0.4': 62.2 + '0.5': 62.5 + '0.6': 62.8 + '0.7': 63.2 + '0.8': 63.8 + '0.9': 64.5 + '0.95': 65.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects the current market equilibrium defined by a 'tug-of-war' + between bearish supply fundamentals (OPEC+ production unwinding, muted demand) + and a persistent floor created by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Prices + are expected to remain range-bound with a slight bearish tilt as the market + adjusts to the reality of increasing supply heading into the final quarter of + 2025. + horizon_rationale: Over the 5-day horizon, prices are likely to consolidate near + the $62.50 level. The market remains in a 'tug-of-war' between bearish supply + signals from OPEC+ production increases and a price floor provided by persistent + geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. + langfuse_trace_id: 0808aef7c4d32b964455cefc47dafda4 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0808aef7c4d32b964455cefc47dafda4 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:53.966738' + as_of: '2025-09-22T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-06T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 62.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.5 + '0.1': 60.0 + '0.2': 60.8 + '0.3': 61.3 + '0.4': 61.7 + '0.5': 62.0 + '0.6': 62.4 + '0.7': 63.0 + '0.8': 63.5 + '0.9': 64.2 + '0.95': 65.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects the current market equilibrium defined by a 'tug-of-war' + between bearish supply fundamentals (OPEC+ production unwinding, muted demand) + and a persistent floor created by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Prices + are expected to remain range-bound with a slight bearish tilt as the market + adjusts to the reality of increasing supply heading into the final quarter of + 2025. + horizon_rationale: Looking 10 days out, the bearish sentiment regarding a looming + winter crude glut, exacerbated by the recent OPEC+ production adjustment announcements, + may exert slightly more downward pressure on prices, targeting a test of the + lower end of the current $61.50-$66.50 range. + langfuse_trace_id: 0808aef7c4d32b964455cefc47dafda4 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0808aef7c4d32b964455cefc47dafda4 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:41:53.966738' + as_of: '2025-09-22T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-21T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.0 + '0.1': 58.8 + '0.2': 59.5 + '0.3': 60.2 + '0.4': 60.8 + '0.5': 61.5 + '0.6': 62.0 + '0.7': 62.8 + '0.8': 63.5 + '0.9': 64.5 + '0.95': 65.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects the current market equilibrium defined by a 'tug-of-war' + between bearish supply fundamentals (OPEC+ production unwinding, muted demand) + and a persistent floor created by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Prices + are expected to remain range-bound with a slight bearish tilt as the market + adjusts to the reality of increasing supply heading into the final quarter of + 2025. + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the cumulative effect of projected OPEC+ + supply increases and muted global demand growth is expected to weigh further + on WTI, leading to a modest drift toward the lower support levels near $61.50, + barring any significant escalation in geopolitical supply disruptions. + langfuse_trace_id: 0808aef7c4d32b964455cefc47dafda4 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/0808aef7c4d32b964455cefc47dafda4 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:07.907742' + as_of: '2025-09-29T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-06T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 65.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 62.5 + '0.1': 63.2 + '0.2': 64.0 + '0.3': 64.6 + '0.4': 65.1 + '0.5': 65.5 + '0.6': 65.9 + '0.7': 66.4 + '0.8': 67.1 + '0.9': 67.8 + '0.95': 68.5 + metadata: + rationale: 'As of September 29, 2025, the WTI market is characterized by a tug-of-war + between fundamental supply growth (OPEC+ unwinding cuts) and geopolitical floors. + Prices are currently range-bound. The forecast assumes: 1) OPEC+ successfully + continues its phased production increases; 2) Geopolitical risks in the Middle + East provide a support level, preventing a sharp drop; 3) Global demand, particularly + from emerging markets, remains muted, limiting upside potential. The overall + outlook is cautiously bearish for the 21-day horizon.' + horizon_rationale: Over the next 5 days, prices are expected to remain range-bound + near current levels ($65.72). Market focus is divided between the persistent + threat of supply growth from OPEC+ and the ongoing geopolitical floor provided + by Middle East tensions. Volatility is likely to remain subdued in the absence + of major headline shifts. + langfuse_trace_id: ef03fa82f2c4129627904e01941d67a8 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ef03fa82f2c4129627904e01941d67a8 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:07.907742' + as_of: '2025-09-29T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-13T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 65.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 61.5 + '0.1': 62.2 + '0.2': 63.0 + '0.3': 63.8 + '0.4': 64.4 + '0.5': 65.0 + '0.6': 65.6 + '0.7': 66.2 + '0.8': 67.0 + '0.9': 67.9 + '0.95': 68.8 + metadata: + rationale: 'As of September 29, 2025, the WTI market is characterized by a tug-of-war + between fundamental supply growth (OPEC+ unwinding cuts) and geopolitical floors. + Prices are currently range-bound. The forecast assumes: 1) OPEC+ successfully + continues its phased production increases; 2) Geopolitical risks in the Middle + East provide a support level, preventing a sharp drop; 3) Global demand, particularly + from emerging markets, remains muted, limiting upside potential. The overall + outlook is cautiously bearish for the 21-day horizon.' + horizon_rationale: Moving into a 10-day horizon, the downward pressure from the + anticipated October supply increases by OPEC+ begins to exert more influence. + While geopolitical risks persist, the market's focus is likely to turn toward + inventory builds and cooling seasonal demand, leading to a slight bearish drift. + langfuse_trace_id: ef03fa82f2c4129627904e01941d67a8 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ef03fa82f2c4129627904e01941d67a8 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:07.907742' + as_of: '2025-09-29T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-28T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 64.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 59.5 + '0.1': 60.5 + '0.2': 61.8 + '0.3': 62.8 + '0.4': 63.5 + '0.5': 64.2 + '0.6': 65.0 + '0.7': 65.8 + '0.8': 66.7 + '0.9': 67.8 + '0.95': 68.6 + metadata: + rationale: 'As of September 29, 2025, the WTI market is characterized by a tug-of-war + between fundamental supply growth (OPEC+ unwinding cuts) and geopolitical floors. + Prices are currently range-bound. The forecast assumes: 1) OPEC+ successfully + continues its phased production increases; 2) Geopolitical risks in the Middle + East provide a support level, preventing a sharp drop; 3) Global demand, particularly + from emerging markets, remains muted, limiting upside potential. The overall + outlook is cautiously bearish for the 21-day horizon.' + horizon_rationale: By the 21-day horizon, the cumulative effect of the October + production adjustments and the market's digestion of slowing global demand outlooks, + particularly in emerging economies, suggests a firmer downward bias. The price + remains anchored by geopolitical risk, but the fundamentals favor a retest of + lower bounds. + langfuse_trace_id: ef03fa82f2c4129627904e01941d67a8 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ef03fa82f2c4129627904e01941d67a8 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:20.085403' + as_of: '2025-10-06T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-13T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.25 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.2 + '0.2': 59.0 + '0.3': 59.6 + '0.4': 60.0 + '0.5': 60.25 + '0.6': 60.5 + '0.7': 61.1 + '0.8': 61.8 + '0.9': 62.6 + '0.95': 63.5 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecast assumes a continuation of the bearish trend observed + in the market through early October 2025. Key factors include: 1) OPEC+ strategy + of incrementally increasing production, which exacerbates the supply glut; 2) + consistently sluggish global demand growth; and 3) the absence of a sufficiently + material geopolitical shock in the Persian Gulf to override the strong fundamental + bearishness. The SPR remains at stable levels, providing no immediate bullish + stimulus.' + horizon_rationale: Short-term horizon reflects the bearish momentum in the WTI + market, driven by persistent oversupply concerns and sluggish global demand. + Prices are hovering near psychological support levels, with technical selling + pressure and a preference for short positions by institutional investors. + langfuse_trace_id: ca8f772b1e0d0194d35967f641974597 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ca8f772b1e0d0194d35967f641974597 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:20.085403' + as_of: '2025-10-06T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-20T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.2 + '0.2': 58.0 + '0.3': 58.7 + '0.4': 59.1 + '0.5': 59.5 + '0.6': 60.0 + '0.7': 60.6 + '0.8': 61.3 + '0.9': 62.2 + '0.95': 63.0 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecast assumes a continuation of the bearish trend observed + in the market through early October 2025. Key factors include: 1) OPEC+ strategy + of incrementally increasing production, which exacerbates the supply glut; 2) + consistently sluggish global demand growth; and 3) the absence of a sufficiently + material geopolitical shock in the Persian Gulf to override the strong fundamental + bearishness. The SPR remains at stable levels, providing no immediate bullish + stimulus.' + horizon_rationale: Over 10 trading days, the market is expected to absorb the + impact of the ongoing OPEC+ strategy of unwinding production cuts. Market participants + will be monitoring any signs of a production pause, but in the absence of a + strong demand catalyst, the bearish bias remains. + langfuse_trace_id: ca8f772b1e0d0194d35967f641974597 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ca8f772b1e0d0194d35967f641974597 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:20.085403' + as_of: '2025-10-06T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-04T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 58.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 56.0 + '0.2': 56.8 + '0.3': 57.5 + '0.4': 58.0 + '0.5': 58.5 + '0.6': 59.2 + '0.7': 60.0 + '0.8': 60.8 + '0.9': 61.8 + '0.95': 62.5 + metadata: + rationale: 'The forecast assumes a continuation of the bearish trend observed + in the market through early October 2025. Key factors include: 1) OPEC+ strategy + of incrementally increasing production, which exacerbates the supply glut; 2) + consistently sluggish global demand growth; and 3) the absence of a sufficiently + material geopolitical shock in the Persian Gulf to override the strong fundamental + bearishness. The SPR remains at stable levels, providing no immediate bullish + stimulus.' + horizon_rationale: For the 21-day horizon, the cumulative effect of rising non-OPEC + supply and structural sluggishness in global demand continues to weigh on the + price. While geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf remain, they have proven + insufficient to reverse the downward trend against fundamental market weakness. + langfuse_trace_id: ca8f772b1e0d0194d35967f641974597 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ca8f772b1e0d0194d35967f641974597 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:32.129210' + as_of: '2025-10-13T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-20T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 58.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.0 + '0.2': 57.5 + '0.3': 58.0 + '0.4': 58.3 + '0.5': 58.5 + '0.6': 58.8 + '0.7': 59.2 + '0.8': 59.8 + '0.9': 60.5 + '0.95': 61.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is driven by a persistent bearish narrative in the WTI + market as of mid-October 2025. Market sentiment is weighed down by an anticipated + supply surplus due to rising non-OPEC+ production and OPEC+ prioritizing market + share over price support through ongoing production hikes. Geopolitical risks + in the Middle East are recognized but considered insufficient to offset the + structural supply-demand mismatch. U.S. policy (SPR refill) acts as a modest + stabilizing factor. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure remains elevated due to the October 10 + close at $58.90, reflecting the ongoing bearish market sentiment regarding oversupply. + While Middle Eastern geopolitical risks provide a potential floor, the focus + remains on the OPEC+ decision to continue increasing output. Technical support + is near the 52-week low ($57.13). + langfuse_trace_id: 8dd3c5236a4cec3dee229e0e1a0dd7ea + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/8dd3c5236a4cec3dee229e0e1a0dd7ea +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:32.129210' + as_of: '2025-10-13T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-27T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 58.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.5 + '0.1': 56.0 + '0.2': 56.8 + '0.3': 57.3 + '0.4': 57.7 + '0.5': 58.0 + '0.6': 58.4 + '0.7': 58.9 + '0.8': 59.5 + '0.9': 60.2 + '0.95': 60.8 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is driven by a persistent bearish narrative in the WTI + market as of mid-October 2025. Market sentiment is weighed down by an anticipated + supply surplus due to rising non-OPEC+ production and OPEC+ prioritizing market + share over price support through ongoing production hikes. Geopolitical risks + in the Middle East are recognized but considered insufficient to offset the + structural supply-demand mismatch. U.S. policy (SPR refill) acts as a modest + stabilizing factor. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the bearish trend persists as market + participants weigh the impact of rising non-OPEC production and the OPEC+ supply + hike. The U.S. SPR refill provides marginal buying support, but it is insufficient + to overcome the supply-demand imbalance. + langfuse_trace_id: 8dd3c5236a4cec3dee229e0e1a0dd7ea + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/8dd3c5236a4cec3dee229e0e1a0dd7ea +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:32.129210' + as_of: '2025-10-13T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-11T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 54.0 + '0.1': 55.0 + '0.2': 56.0 + '0.3': 56.7 + '0.4': 57.1 + '0.5': 57.5 + '0.6': 58.0 + '0.7': 58.5 + '0.8': 59.2 + '0.9': 60.0 + '0.95': 60.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is driven by a persistent bearish narrative in the WTI + market as of mid-October 2025. Market sentiment is weighed down by an anticipated + supply surplus due to rising non-OPEC+ production and OPEC+ prioritizing market + share over price support through ongoing production hikes. Geopolitical risks + in the Middle East are recognized but considered insufficient to offset the + structural supply-demand mismatch. U.S. policy (SPR refill) acts as a modest + stabilizing factor. + horizon_rationale: By month-end, the market expects continued pressure from the + fundamental surplus. Barring a major geopolitical shock in the Middle East that + disrupts supply, the trajectory remains slightly downward, testing psychological + support levels below the recent 52-week low. + langfuse_trace_id: 8dd3c5236a4cec3dee229e0e1a0dd7ea + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/8dd3c5236a4cec3dee229e0e1a0dd7ea +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:44.396184' + as_of: '2025-10-20T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-10-27T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.1 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.4 + '0.1': 55.8 + '0.2': 56.2 + '0.3': 56.55 + '0.4': 56.85 + '0.5': 57.1 + '0.6': 57.35 + '0.7': 57.65 + '0.8': 58.0 + '0.9': 58.6 + '0.95': 59.1 + metadata: + rationale: "The outlook for WTI crude oil is structurally bearish, consistent\ + \ with the observed trends throughout 2025. Key drivers include a persistent\ + \ surplus in global supply, driven by record production outside of OPEC+ and\ + \ underwhelming global demand growth. OPEC+\u2019s shift toward prioritizing\ + \ market share, along with consistent monthly production increases, reinforces\ + \ this trend. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide only temporary,\ + \ muted support for prices, as structural fundamentals consistently dominate.\ + \ U.S. SPR replenishment efforts remain too constrained by logistical and fiscal\ + \ factors to alter the overall downward price trajectory." + horizon_rationale: 'Short-term horizon (5 days): Following the close of $57.54, + price action remains weak due to structural global oversupply and anticipation + of further OPEC+ production increases. The market is struggling near the 52-week + low ($57.13), suggesting a high probability of testing support levels before + any meaningful rebound.' + langfuse_trace_id: 1a9571c3a2c89ae1ee7f566aaaddbb20 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/1a9571c3a2c89ae1ee7f566aaaddbb20 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:44.396184' + as_of: '2025-10-20T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-03T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 56.4 + quantiles: + '0.05': 54.2 + '0.1': 54.7 + '0.2': 55.3 + '0.3': 55.8 + '0.4': 56.15 + '0.5': 56.4 + '0.6': 56.7 + '0.7': 57.1 + '0.8': 57.6 + '0.9': 58.3 + '0.95': 58.9 + metadata: + rationale: "The outlook for WTI crude oil is structurally bearish, consistent\ + \ with the observed trends throughout 2025. Key drivers include a persistent\ + \ surplus in global supply, driven by record production outside of OPEC+ and\ + \ underwhelming global demand growth. OPEC+\u2019s shift toward prioritizing\ + \ market share, along with consistent monthly production increases, reinforces\ + \ this trend. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide only temporary,\ + \ muted support for prices, as structural fundamentals consistently dominate.\ + \ U.S. SPR replenishment efforts remain too constrained by logistical and fiscal\ + \ factors to alter the overall downward price trajectory." + horizon_rationale: 'Medium-term horizon (10 days): The bearish sentiment persists + as non-OPEC+ supply continues to outpace demand. Inventory builds are expected + to put downward pressure on WTI. Geopolitical risks exist but have failed to + catalyze sustained price rallies throughout 2025.' + langfuse_trace_id: 1a9571c3a2c89ae1ee7f566aaaddbb20 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/1a9571c3a2c89ae1ee7f566aaaddbb20 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:44.396184' + as_of: '2025-10-20T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-18T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 55.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 52.5 + '0.1': 53.2 + '0.2': 54.0 + '0.3': 54.7 + '0.4': 55.15 + '0.5': 55.5 + '0.6': 55.9 + '0.7': 56.4 + '0.8': 57.1 + '0.9': 58.0 + '0.95': 58.8 + metadata: + rationale: "The outlook for WTI crude oil is structurally bearish, consistent\ + \ with the observed trends throughout 2025. Key drivers include a persistent\ + \ surplus in global supply, driven by record production outside of OPEC+ and\ + \ underwhelming global demand growth. OPEC+\u2019s shift toward prioritizing\ + \ market share, along with consistent monthly production increases, reinforces\ + \ this trend. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide only temporary,\ + \ muted support for prices, as structural fundamentals consistently dominate.\ + \ U.S. SPR replenishment efforts remain too constrained by logistical and fiscal\ + \ factors to alter the overall downward price trajectory." + horizon_rationale: 'Longer-term horizon (21 days): Market focus shifts toward + the end-of-year output hikes planned by OPEC+. Sustained oversupply and record + production from non-OPEC+ nations solidify a downward drift. SPR replenishment + is insufficient to counter the prevailing fundamental bearishness.' + langfuse_trace_id: 1a9571c3a2c89ae1ee7f566aaaddbb20 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/1a9571c3a2c89ae1ee7f566aaaddbb20 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:56.577877' + as_of: '2025-10-27T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-03T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 61.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 58.5 + '0.1': 59.2 + '0.2': 60.1 + '0.3': 60.6 + '0.4': 60.9 + '0.5': 61.2 + '0.6': 61.5 + '0.7': 61.9 + '0.8': 62.4 + '0.9': 63.2 + '0.95': 64.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a moderately bearish outlook for WTI crude oil. + The fundamental backdrop in late October 2025 is dominated by a clear oversupply + narrative, sluggish demand growth (particularly in China), and rising non-OPEC + production. OPEC+ is attempting to manage this through modest, flexible production + adjustments, but these have been insufficient to overcome market sentiment. + Geopolitical risks (Middle East shipping lanes) are present but are currently + considered insufficient to offset the fundamental drag of the supply/demand + imbalance. US SPR replenishment efforts are noted but have a minimal impact + compared to broader global inventory builds. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure persists due to the oversupply narrative + and weak demand growth. The price is likely to remain range-bound near current + levels as the market assesses the impact of OPEC+ production adjustments for + November. + langfuse_trace_id: fe7d659c571431c5ce13bc70832a58a7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/fe7d659c571431c5ce13bc70832a58a7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:56.577877' + as_of: '2025-10-27T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-10T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.3 + '0.2': 59.2 + '0.3': 59.9 + '0.4': 60.4 + '0.5': 60.8 + '0.6': 61.3 + '0.7': 61.8 + '0.8': 62.5 + '0.9': 63.5 + '0.95': 64.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a moderately bearish outlook for WTI crude oil. + The fundamental backdrop in late October 2025 is dominated by a clear oversupply + narrative, sluggish demand growth (particularly in China), and rising non-OPEC + production. OPEC+ is attempting to manage this through modest, flexible production + adjustments, but these have been insufficient to overcome market sentiment. + Geopolitical risks (Middle East shipping lanes) are present but are currently + considered insufficient to offset the fundamental drag of the supply/demand + imbalance. US SPR replenishment efforts are noted but have a minimal impact + compared to broader global inventory builds. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the bearish momentum from the supply + surplus continues to weigh on WTI. Geopolitical risks provide a floor, but fundamentally, + the market anticipates continued pressure without a major catalyst. + langfuse_trace_id: fe7d659c571431c5ce13bc70832a58a7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/fe7d659c571431c5ce13bc70832a58a7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:42:56.577877' + as_of: '2025-10-27T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-25T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.0 + '0.1': 57.0 + '0.2': 58.2 + '0.3': 59.0 + '0.4': 59.6 + '0.5': 60.0 + '0.6': 60.6 + '0.7': 61.3 + '0.8': 62.2 + '0.9': 63.5 + '0.95': 65.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a moderately bearish outlook for WTI crude oil. + The fundamental backdrop in late October 2025 is dominated by a clear oversupply + narrative, sluggish demand growth (particularly in China), and rising non-OPEC + production. OPEC+ is attempting to manage this through modest, flexible production + adjustments, but these have been insufficient to overcome market sentiment. + Geopolitical risks (Middle East shipping lanes) are present but are currently + considered insufficient to offset the fundamental drag of the supply/demand + imbalance. US SPR replenishment efforts are noted but have a minimal impact + compared to broader global inventory builds. + horizon_rationale: Looking into the 21-day horizon, the cumulative effect of the + persistent global oil glut and weak industrial demand suggests a slight downward + drift. While OPEC+ is managing adjustments, their ability to meaningfully tighten + the market in the face of strong non-OPEC production remains limited, leading + to a bearish bias. + langfuse_trace_id: fe7d659c571431c5ce13bc70832a58a7 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/fe7d659c571431c5ce13bc70832a58a7 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:08.513774' + as_of: '2025-11-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-10T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.2 + '0.2': 59.1 + '0.3': 59.8 + '0.4': 60.2 + '0.5': 60.5 + '0.6': 60.9 + '0.7': 61.4 + '0.8': 62.1 + '0.9': 63.2 + '0.95': 64.0 + metadata: + rationale: The market sentiment as of Nov 3, 2025, is bearish due to oversupply + concerns, weak demand growth, and record U.S. production. OPEC+ policy is cautious, + but the pause in production increases for Q1 2026 provides a potential floor + rather than a catalyst for a sustained rally. Geopolitical risk premiums remain, + but physical supply disruptions are minimal, leading to a controlled downward + price trend. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure persists as the market absorbs the November + OPEC+ update. Prices likely to consolidate near the $60 support level due to + balanced sentiment and lack of immediate major catalysts. + langfuse_trace_id: 18aaedce5b9eabc6713855b5b84273cf + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/18aaedce5b9eabc6713855b5b84273cf +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:08.513774' + as_of: '2025-11-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-17T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 60.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.3 + '0.2': 58.2 + '0.3': 59.0 + '0.4': 59.6 + '0.5': 60.0 + '0.6': 60.5 + '0.7': 61.2 + '0.8': 62.0 + '0.9': 63.5 + '0.95': 64.8 + metadata: + rationale: The market sentiment as of Nov 3, 2025, is bearish due to oversupply + concerns, weak demand growth, and record U.S. production. OPEC+ policy is cautious, + but the pause in production increases for Q1 2026 provides a potential floor + rather than a catalyst for a sustained rally. Geopolitical risk premiums remain, + but physical supply disruptions are minimal, leading to a controlled downward + price trend. + horizon_rationale: Over a 2-week horizon, the lack of immediate supply-side bullishness + combined with sluggish demand growth in major consuming regions (Asia) suggests + a continued slight downward drift. + langfuse_trace_id: 18aaedce5b9eabc6713855b5b84273cf + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/18aaedce5b9eabc6713855b5b84273cf +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:08.513774' + as_of: '2025-11-03T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-02T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 56.0 + '0.2': 57.2 + '0.3': 58.1 + '0.4': 58.9 + '0.5': 59.5 + '0.6': 60.2 + '0.7': 61.0 + '0.8': 62.2 + '0.9': 64.0 + '0.95': 65.5 + metadata: + rationale: The market sentiment as of Nov 3, 2025, is bearish due to oversupply + concerns, weak demand growth, and record U.S. production. OPEC+ policy is cautious, + but the pause in production increases for Q1 2026 provides a potential floor + rather than a catalyst for a sustained rally. Geopolitical risk premiums remain, + but physical supply disruptions are minimal, leading to a controlled downward + price trend. + horizon_rationale: By the end of the month, the market will fully incorporate + the November 2nd OPEC+ decision to pause planned increases for Q1 2026. While + this is supportive, the bearish impact of record-high U.S. output and persistent + macro demand headwinds suggests prices may gravitate toward the $57-$60 range. + langfuse_trace_id: 18aaedce5b9eabc6713855b5b84273cf + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/18aaedce5b9eabc6713855b5b84273cf +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:20.218019' + as_of: '2025-11-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-17T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.0 + '0.2': 58.5 + '0.3': 59.0 + '0.4': 59.25 + '0.5': 59.5 + '0.6': 59.75 + '0.7': 60.25 + '0.8': 60.75 + '0.9': 61.5 + '0.95': 62.0 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI remains fundamentally bearish due to a consensus + of sluggish demand growth and rising supply. While geopolitical tensions provide + a constant potential for upside spikes, they have failed to fundamentally alter + the downward price trajectory. Key assumptions include a stable but supply-heavy + global balance, cautious OPEC+ management, and persistent pressure on WTI toward + the low $60s and high $50s range. + horizon_rationale: As of Nov 10, 2025, WTI is under persistent bearish pressure + near $60/bbl due to concerns of supply outpacing demand. Near-term price action + (5 days) likely continues to consolidate around this level as the market monitors + OPEC+ production path and weak seasonal demand. The range remains tight, skewed + slightly to the downside. + langfuse_trace_id: c05382f97242a336a68eecc9eda06111 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/c05382f97242a336a68eecc9eda06111 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:20.218019' + as_of: '2025-11-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-24T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.0 + '0.2': 57.75 + '0.3': 58.25 + '0.4': 58.75 + '0.5': 59.0 + '0.6': 59.5 + '0.7': 60.0 + '0.8': 60.5 + '0.9': 61.25 + '0.95': 61.75 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI remains fundamentally bearish due to a consensus + of sluggish demand growth and rising supply. While geopolitical tensions provide + a constant potential for upside spikes, they have failed to fundamentally alter + the downward price trajectory. Key assumptions include a stable but supply-heavy + global balance, cautious OPEC+ management, and persistent pressure on WTI toward + the low $60s and high $50s range. + horizon_rationale: "Over 10 days, the bearish fundamentals\u2014record US output\ + \ and incremental OPEC+ supply\u2014are expected to exert further pressure.\ + \ Without significant geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, the drift\ + \ remains downward as markets absorb the reality of the impending production\ + \ increases." + langfuse_trace_id: c05382f97242a336a68eecc9eda06111 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/c05382f97242a336a68eecc9eda06111 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:20.218019' + as_of: '2025-11-10T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-09T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 58.25 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 55.75 + '0.2': 56.5 + '0.3': 57.25 + '0.4': 57.75 + '0.5': 58.25 + '0.6': 58.75 + '0.7': 59.5 + '0.8': 60.25 + '0.9': 61.0 + '0.95': 61.5 + metadata: + rationale: The outlook for WTI remains fundamentally bearish due to a consensus + of sluggish demand growth and rising supply. While geopolitical tensions provide + a constant potential for upside spikes, they have failed to fundamentally alter + the downward price trajectory. Key assumptions include a stable but supply-heavy + global balance, cautious OPEC+ management, and persistent pressure on WTI toward + the low $60s and high $50s range. + horizon_rationale: Over 21 days, the market enters the period leading into the + December production adjustments. The bearish sentiment is likely to persist + as seasonal demand remains soft and the risk of oversupply remains at the forefront + of market discussion. The downside tail is broader as technical support levels + are tested. + langfuse_trace_id: c05382f97242a336a68eecc9eda06111 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/c05382f97242a336a68eecc9eda06111 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:32.248356' + as_of: '2025-11-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-11-24T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.85 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.5 + '0.1': 58.2 + '0.2': 58.9 + '0.3': 59.3 + '0.4': 59.6 + '0.5': 59.85 + '0.6': 60.1 + '0.7': 60.5 + '0.8': 61.1 + '0.9': 62.0 + '0.95': 62.8 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a consistent bearish trend in WTI crude prices + during mid-November 2025. Fundamentals remain pressured by high US production + and adequate inventory levels. OPEC+ policy (pausing production hikes for early + 2026) is expected to limit the downside but not reverse the price trend in the + near term. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide occasional, transient + upward volatility, but the overall market trajectory is downward. + horizon_rationale: As of Nov 17, 2025, the market is characterized by a bearish + trend due to supply-demand imbalances, with record US production and comfortable + inventories. The short-term price discovery is weighed by consistent inventory + accumulation and weak demand signals. Geopolitical risk remains but acts as + a background noise rather than a primary driver. + langfuse_trace_id: 5b6b0248e35ce537aad258991f109421 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/5b6b0248e35ce537aad258991f109421 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:32.248356' + as_of: '2025-11-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-01T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.2 + '0.2': 58.0 + '0.3': 58.5 + '0.4': 58.9 + '0.5': 59.2 + '0.6': 59.5 + '0.7': 60.0 + '0.8': 60.8 + '0.9': 61.8 + '0.95': 62.5 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a consistent bearish trend in WTI crude prices + during mid-November 2025. Fundamentals remain pressured by high US production + and adequate inventory levels. OPEC+ policy (pausing production hikes for early + 2026) is expected to limit the downside but not reverse the price trend in the + near term. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide occasional, transient + upward volatility, but the overall market trajectory is downward. + horizon_rationale: Over a 10-day horizon, the 'controlled downdraft' trend is + expected to persist as fundamental supply pressure remains. The market is sensitive + to end-of-month stock reports which may reinforce the oversupply narrative. + langfuse_trace_id: 5b6b0248e35ce537aad258991f109421 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/5b6b0248e35ce537aad258991f109421 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:32.248356' + as_of: '2025-11-17T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-16T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 58.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 55.8 + '0.2': 56.5 + '0.3': 57.5 + '0.4': 58.0 + '0.5': 58.5 + '0.6': 59.1 + '0.7': 59.8 + '0.8': 60.5 + '0.9': 61.5 + '0.95': 62.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects a consistent bearish trend in WTI crude prices + during mid-November 2025. Fundamentals remain pressured by high US production + and adequate inventory levels. OPEC+ policy (pausing production hikes for early + 2026) is expected to limit the downside but not reverse the price trend in the + near term. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide occasional, transient + upward volatility, but the overall market trajectory is downward. + horizon_rationale: The 21-day outlook remains bearish. While OPEC+ production + pauses for Q1 2026 attempt to support the market, they are unlikely to fully + offset persistent inventory growth through the end of 2025. US SPR refilling + activity provides only a marginal floor at current price levels. + langfuse_trace_id: 5b6b0248e35ce537aad258991f109421 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/5b6b0248e35ce537aad258991f109421 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:43.209043' + as_of: '2025-11-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-01T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.5 + '0.1': 56.2 + '0.2': 56.8 + '0.3': 57.2 + '0.4': 57.5 + '0.5': 57.8 + '0.6': 58.1 + '0.7': 58.5 + '0.8': 59.0 + '0.9': 59.8 + '0.95': 60.5 + metadata: + rationale: WTI prices are under downward pressure due to a global supply glut, + particularly from the Americas, and persistent weakness in industrial demand. + OPEC+ remains cautious, but their modest production management has not been + enough to offset the structural surplus. Geopolitical risks, including tensions + in the Persian Gulf and sanctions, provide limited, transient volatility but + do not alter the broader bearish trend defined by fundamental oversupply. The + U.S. SPR refilling provides a slight supporting floor but does not shift the + fundamental outlook. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure remains due to global oversupply and weak + industrial demand. While geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf provides a small + floor, the recent trend is bearish. + langfuse_trace_id: ab8b90f18edf2ad83722852d8819be16 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ab8b90f18edf2ad83722852d8819be16 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:43.209043' + as_of: '2025-11-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-08T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 54.8 + '0.1': 55.5 + '0.2': 56.2 + '0.3': 56.7 + '0.4': 57.1 + '0.5': 57.5 + '0.6': 57.9 + '0.7': 58.3 + '0.8': 58.9 + '0.9': 59.6 + '0.95': 60.3 + metadata: + rationale: WTI prices are under downward pressure due to a global supply glut, + particularly from the Americas, and persistent weakness in industrial demand. + OPEC+ remains cautious, but their modest production management has not been + enough to offset the structural surplus. Geopolitical risks, including tensions + in the Persian Gulf and sanctions, provide limited, transient volatility but + do not alter the broader bearish trend defined by fundamental oversupply. The + U.S. SPR refilling provides a slight supporting floor but does not shift the + fundamental outlook. + horizon_rationale: Market continues to price in the surplus from the Americas, + outweighing modest OPEC+ production adjustments. No significant catalyst for + bullish reversal expected in the next two weeks. + langfuse_trace_id: ab8b90f18edf2ad83722852d8819be16 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ab8b90f18edf2ad83722852d8819be16 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:43.209043' + as_of: '2025-11-24T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-23T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 53.5 + '0.1': 54.5 + '0.2': 55.5 + '0.3': 56.2 + '0.4': 56.6 + '0.5': 57.0 + '0.6': 57.5 + '0.7': 58.0 + '0.8': 58.8 + '0.9': 59.5 + '0.95': 60.2 + metadata: + rationale: WTI prices are under downward pressure due to a global supply glut, + particularly from the Americas, and persistent weakness in industrial demand. + OPEC+ remains cautious, but their modest production management has not been + enough to offset the structural surplus. Geopolitical risks, including tensions + in the Persian Gulf and sanctions, provide limited, transient volatility but + do not alter the broader bearish trend defined by fundamental oversupply. The + U.S. SPR refilling provides a slight supporting floor but does not shift the + fundamental outlook. + horizon_rationale: Over a one-month horizon, the market reflects seasonal demand + weakness and the continued inventory buildup. The SPR refilling adds a minor + bid but is insufficient to overcome the supply-demand imbalance. + langfuse_trace_id: ab8b90f18edf2ad83722852d8819be16 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/ab8b90f18edf2ad83722852d8819be16 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:57.234468' + as_of: '2025-12-01T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-08T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 58.3 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.1 + '0.2': 57.6 + '0.3': 57.9 + '0.4': 58.1 + '0.5': 58.3 + '0.6': 58.5 + '0.7': 58.8 + '0.8': 59.2 + '0.9': 59.8 + '0.95': 60.3 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects the overarching fundamental narrative of a persistent + global supply surplus throughout the second half of 2025. Despite the OPEC+ + commitment to pause production hikes in early 2026, the absence of strong demand-side + drivers and the ongoing trend of elevated inventory levels lead to a bearish + outlook for WTI in the near term. No immediate extreme geopolitical risk to + shipping lanes has been priced in. + horizon_rationale: Short-term pressure remains dominated by the persistent global + supply surplus and bearish demand outlooks. OPEC+'s decision to pause production + hikes in early 2026 provides a slight floor, but the market is currently consolidating + around the $58-59 level. I expect limited volatility over the next 5 days. + langfuse_trace_id: 03dc34f0dea4f7212b5575edea1fce30 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/03dc34f0dea4f7212b5575edea1fce30 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:57.234468' + as_of: '2025-12-01T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-15T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.8 + '0.1': 56.3 + '0.2': 56.9 + '0.3': 57.3 + '0.4': 57.6 + '0.5': 57.8 + '0.6': 58.1 + '0.7': 58.4 + '0.8': 58.9 + '0.9': 59.5 + '0.95': 60.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects the overarching fundamental narrative of a persistent + global supply surplus throughout the second half of 2025. Despite the OPEC+ + commitment to pause production hikes in early 2026, the absence of strong demand-side + drivers and the ongoing trend of elevated inventory levels lead to a bearish + outlook for WTI in the near term. No immediate extreme geopolitical risk to + shipping lanes has been priced in. + horizon_rationale: As we move further into December, seasonal demand weakness, + typical for the end of the year, likely exerts downward pressure. The lack of + major geopolitical catalysts and the ongoing supply surplus continue to skew + risks to the downside. + langfuse_trace_id: 03dc34f0dea4f7212b5575edea1fce30 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/03dc34f0dea4f7212b5575edea1fce30 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:43:57.234468' + as_of: '2025-12-01T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-30T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 56.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 54.0 + '0.1': 54.8 + '0.2': 55.5 + '0.3': 55.9 + '0.4': 56.2 + '0.5': 56.5 + '0.6': 56.9 + '0.7': 57.4 + '0.8': 58.1 + '0.9': 58.8 + '0.95': 59.4 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast reflects the overarching fundamental narrative of a persistent + global supply surplus throughout the second half of 2025. Despite the OPEC+ + commitment to pause production hikes in early 2026, the absence of strong demand-side + drivers and the ongoing trend of elevated inventory levels lead to a bearish + outlook for WTI in the near term. No immediate extreme geopolitical risk to + shipping lanes has been priced in. + horizon_rationale: Over a 21-day horizon, the market will likely align further + with the EIA/analyst consensus for lower oil prices into early 2026. Fundamental + factors, including higher non-OPEC+ production growth and weak industrial demand, + suggest a continuation of the gradual downward drift toward the $55-57 range. + langfuse_trace_id: 03dc34f0dea4f7212b5575edea1fce30 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/03dc34f0dea4f7212b5575edea1fce30 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:10.479949' + as_of: '2025-12-08T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-15T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.85 + quantiles: + '0.05': 57.25 + '0.1': 57.85 + '0.2': 58.55 + '0.3': 59.15 + '0.4': 59.55 + '0.5': 59.85 + '0.6': 60.15 + '0.7': 60.65 + '0.8': 61.25 + '0.9': 62.15 + '0.95': 62.75 + metadata: + rationale: The market is currently weighed down by significant fundamental oversupply, + with global inventories at multi-year highs and demand growth failing to keep + pace with production, despite OPEC+'s cautious supply management. The US SPR + replenishment acts as a minor floor for prices. Geopolitical risk exists but + is currently eclipsed by macroeconomic demand fears and structural surplus concerns. + horizon_rationale: As of Dec 8, 2025, the market is characterized by a structural + surplus and bearish sentiment. Prices are hovering near $60, with the short-term + outlook remaining cautious. The forecast reflects a consolidation phase near + current levels, with a slight downside bias due to global inventory build and + weak demand signals. + langfuse_trace_id: a3d0edaadd2be291b11e88cc656eca81 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a3d0edaadd2be291b11e88cc656eca81 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:10.479949' + as_of: '2025-12-08T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-22T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 59.25 + quantiles: + '0.05': 56.5 + '0.1': 57.1 + '0.2': 57.8 + '0.3': 58.5 + '0.4': 58.9 + '0.5': 59.25 + '0.6': 59.7 + '0.7': 60.3 + '0.8': 61.0 + '0.9': 61.9 + '0.95': 62.5 + metadata: + rationale: The market is currently weighed down by significant fundamental oversupply, + with global inventories at multi-year highs and demand growth failing to keep + pace with production, despite OPEC+'s cautious supply management. The US SPR + replenishment acts as a minor floor for prices. Geopolitical risk exists but + is currently eclipsed by macroeconomic demand fears and structural surplus concerns. + horizon_rationale: Over 10 days, the structural imbalance of global supply outstripping + demand, compounded by high inventories, is expected to exert continued downward + pressure. We anticipate a slow grind lower, punctuated by occasional geopolitical + headline-driven volatility. + langfuse_trace_id: a3d0edaadd2be291b11e88cc656eca81 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a3d0edaadd2be291b11e88cc656eca81 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:10.479949' + as_of: '2025-12-08T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2026-01-06T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 58.0 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.0 + '0.1': 55.8 + '0.2': 56.5 + '0.3': 57.2 + '0.4': 57.6 + '0.5': 58.0 + '0.6': 58.5 + '0.7': 59.2 + '0.8': 60.0 + '0.9': 61.0 + '0.95': 61.8 + metadata: + rationale: The market is currently weighed down by significant fundamental oversupply, + with global inventories at multi-year highs and demand growth failing to keep + pace with production, despite OPEC+'s cautious supply management. The US SPR + replenishment acts as a minor floor for prices. Geopolitical risk exists but + is currently eclipsed by macroeconomic demand fears and structural surplus concerns. + horizon_rationale: By the end of the 21-day horizon, the impact of the end-of-year + seasonal demand lull and the continued, albeit gradual, supply growth from OPEC+ + is projected to push WTI prices lower. The bearish trend in fundamentals is + the dominant driver. + langfuse_trace_id: a3d0edaadd2be291b11e88cc656eca81 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/a3d0edaadd2be291b11e88cc656eca81 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:25.869208' + as_of: '2025-12-15T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-22T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 57.1 + quantiles: + '0.05': 55.2 + '0.1': 55.7 + '0.2': 56.1 + '0.3': 56.5 + '0.4': 56.8 + '0.5': 57.1 + '0.6': 57.4 + '0.7': 57.7 + '0.8': 58.1 + '0.9': 58.7 + '0.95': 59.2 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in a bearish environment defined by a persistent + supply surplus and moderate demand growth forecasts for 2026. While OPEC+ has + signaled caution by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, the current market + reality is one of oversupply. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf have failed + to generate sustained upward price movement, acting only as periodic volatility + events. US SPR policy is focused on modest replenishment, which provides little + support to price at these levels. The outlook anticipates continued downward + pressure as the market navigates a surplus-driven, contango-heavy environment. + horizon_rationale: Over the next 5 days, bearish sentiment persists due to an + established global supply surplus. Despite OPEC+ halting production increases + for Q1 2026, the market remains focused on near-term demand weakness. Geopolitical + risks in the Persian Gulf continue to provide only minimal, transient support. + langfuse_trace_id: 2a987d8ddebb07619a09f0fbb6eae030 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2a987d8ddebb07619a09f0fbb6eae030 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:25.869208' + as_of: '2025-12-15T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-29T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 56.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 53.8 + '0.1': 54.5 + '0.2': 55.2 + '0.3': 55.8 + '0.4': 56.1 + '0.5': 56.5 + '0.6': 56.9 + '0.7': 57.3 + '0.8': 57.8 + '0.9': 58.5 + '0.95': 59.1 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in a bearish environment defined by a persistent + supply surplus and moderate demand growth forecasts for 2026. While OPEC+ has + signaled caution by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, the current market + reality is one of oversupply. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf have failed + to generate sustained upward price movement, acting only as periodic volatility + events. US SPR policy is focused on modest replenishment, which provides little + support to price at these levels. The outlook anticipates continued downward + pressure as the market navigates a surplus-driven, contango-heavy environment. + horizon_rationale: Looking 10 days ahead, the market is expected to remain in + a state of contango as physical inventories continue to accumulate. The lack + of major demand catalysts, combined with the U.S. maintaining stable but cautious + production, reinforces the downward price bias. + langfuse_trace_id: 2a987d8ddebb07619a09f0fbb6eae030 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2a987d8ddebb07619a09f0fbb6eae030 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:25.869208' + as_of: '2025-12-15T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2026-01-13T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 55.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 51.5 + '0.1': 52.5 + '0.2': 53.8 + '0.3': 54.7 + '0.4': 55.3 + '0.5': 55.8 + '0.6': 56.3 + '0.7': 56.9 + '0.8': 57.6 + '0.9': 58.4 + '0.95': 59.0 + metadata: + rationale: The forecast is grounded in a bearish environment defined by a persistent + supply surplus and moderate demand growth forecasts for 2026. While OPEC+ has + signaled caution by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, the current market + reality is one of oversupply. Geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf have failed + to generate sustained upward price movement, acting only as periodic volatility + events. US SPR policy is focused on modest replenishment, which provides little + support to price at these levels. The outlook anticipates continued downward + pressure as the market navigates a surplus-driven, contango-heavy environment. + horizon_rationale: Over the 21-day horizon, the market will likely continue testing + lower price floors. With OPEC+ production quotas remaining static for early + 2026 and seasonal demand potentially softening further, the supply glut remains + the dominant fundamental driver, outweighing geopolitical noise. + langfuse_trace_id: 2a987d8ddebb07619a09f0fbb6eae030 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/2a987d8ddebb07619a09f0fbb6eae030 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:37.505788' + as_of: '2025-12-22T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2025-12-29T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 56.5 + quantiles: + '0.05': 54.8 + '0.1': 55.2 + '0.2': 55.8 + '0.3': 56.1 + '0.4': 56.3 + '0.5': 56.5 + '0.6': 56.7 + '0.7': 57.1 + '0.8': 57.6 + '0.9': 58.2 + '0.95': 58.8 + metadata: + rationale: The market is fundamentally bearish due to a structural supply surplus, + record high inventories, and weak demand growth. OPEC+'s decision to pause increments + only in Q1 2026, while concurrently increasing production in December 2025, + fails to provide sufficient catalyst for a sustained reversal of the prevailing + downtrend. Geopolitical risks remain secondary to the physical supply-demand + balance. + horizon_rationale: As of December 22, 2025, WTI is under downward pressure from + record high global inventories and softening demand. While geopolitical risk + in the Persian Gulf provides limited, periodic support, the bearish structural + supply-demand balance (OPEC+ production increase coupled with strong non-OPEC+ + output) dominates sentiment. Short-term volatility is expected to remain constrained + near recent lows of $55.27. + langfuse_trace_id: 331d518225e58a99a4931a4ade89e1e2 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/331d518225e58a99a4931a4ade89e1e2 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:37.505788' + as_of: '2025-12-22T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2026-01-05T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 56.2 + quantiles: + '0.05': 54.0 + '0.1': 54.6 + '0.2': 55.2 + '0.3': 55.7 + '0.4': 56.0 + '0.5': 56.2 + '0.6': 56.5 + '0.7': 56.9 + '0.8': 57.5 + '0.9': 58.3 + '0.95': 59.1 + metadata: + rationale: The market is fundamentally bearish due to a structural supply surplus, + record high inventories, and weak demand growth. OPEC+'s decision to pause increments + only in Q1 2026, while concurrently increasing production in December 2025, + fails to provide sufficient catalyst for a sustained reversal of the prevailing + downtrend. Geopolitical risks remain secondary to the physical supply-demand + balance. + horizon_rationale: Over a two-week horizon, the market continues to price in the + year-end supply surplus. The lack of material change in OPEC+ policy for early + 2026 suggests the bearish momentum will likely persist as the market absorbs + the December production increase. + langfuse_trace_id: 331d518225e58a99a4931a4ade89e1e2 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/331d518225e58a99a4931a4ade89e1e2 +- predictor_id: agent_predictor_wti_analyst_news_gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview_continuous + task_id: wti_oil_price_forecast + issued_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:37.505788' + as_of: '2025-12-22T00:00:00' + forecast_date: '2026-01-20T00:00:00' + payload: + point_forecast: 55.8 + quantiles: + '0.05': 53.0 + '0.1': 53.8 + '0.2': 54.5 + '0.3': 55.1 + '0.4': 55.5 + '0.5': 55.8 + '0.6': 56.2 + '0.7': 56.8 + '0.8': 57.6 + '0.9': 58.7 + '0.95': 59.8 + metadata: + rationale: The market is fundamentally bearish due to a structural supply surplus, + record high inventories, and weak demand growth. OPEC+'s decision to pause increments + only in Q1 2026, while concurrently increasing production in December 2025, + fails to provide sufficient catalyst for a sustained reversal of the prevailing + downtrend. Geopolitical risks remain secondary to the physical supply-demand + balance. + horizon_rationale: By early January 2026, the focus will likely shift to Q1 demand + expectations. With no further OPEC+ production cuts expected, the persistent + oversupply remains the primary driver. The point forecast reflects a drift toward + the lower end of the 52-week trading range. + langfuse_trace_id: 331d518225e58a99a4931a4ade89e1e2 + langfuse_trace_url: https://us.cloud.langfuse.com/project/cmobssx3g00buad07gb4o1gh6/traces/331d518225e58a99a4931a4ade89e1e2 +scores: +- 3.581156719617608 +- 1.5281005607163605 +- 3.2085142277489003 +- 1.9798349049465713 +- 3.324216707087745 +- 3.259831048634426 +- 4.939257724226013 +- 0.6520644511073097 +- 0.9553720395427093 +- 2.709338593285931 +- 0.4895868600892633 +- 3.887270979447799 +- 0.5289253424021819 +- 2.584710743801652 +- 0.37975234354823 +- 1.7617332899866038 +- 3.0479326358511414 +- 1.3848737858543694 +- 3.646860724835357 +- 1.5785123966942127 +- 2.7104970884717208 +- 1.0267756942875133 +- 1.6528906199557718 +- 0.5523971935934268 +- 1.0136366410688933 +- 7.029089078036222 +- 1.1096698098931432 +- 3.53041658007409 +- 3.3344609788626673 +- 2.5613250606316194 +- 5.305784361027489 +- 1.5161168122094522 +- 7.80578436102749 +- 6.514629319876677 +- 6.8651257979968365 +- 0.38206600472946756 +- 1.5761998452430914 +- 0.7528099312269979 +- 1.0955383552992641 +- 0.9334707275895044 +- 2.247850074452803 +- 0.9888433219972719 +- 4.387354303785591 +- 1.185785498500855 +- 4.310494799653361 +- 0.5227274808016689 +- 0.7270246269289121 +- 3.0731412588072216 +- 4.370990362246176 +- 6.024049434188971 +- 1.3192553244346432 +- 4.039507489165 +- 0.8004959926132326 +- 12.473054189130297 +- 0.7561159937834937 +- 3.4503314940397414 +- 3.4394242341853385 +- 3.4255381056099887 +- 10.050988378603599 +- 3.743385932859311 +- 6.4315668910002906 +- 3.3976054420155934 +- 4.211820012872871 +- 3.909832574513333 +- 6.018925009483148 +- 2.933225887077898 +- 8.302396083863313 +- 3.8195864716837216 +- 3.9240503358446843 +- 1.5810745743680585 +- 1.2933899556309731 +- 3.496610821180109 +- 0.41553749525842676 +- 0.6082647402424458 +- 1.5148743684626804 +- 0.7169435359229727 +- 0.8830582673884619 +- 2.8493403411108593 +- 0.6171076877058044 +- 1.1599169392231072 +- 3.96074505009927 +- 0.5254551280628531 +- 1.1556204173190543 +- 2.008677685950412 +- 2.5474389320562687 +- 2.2745469526811064 +- 1.1999170224528661 +- 0.47917372017852505 +- 1.0867782466667744 +- 0.7655372871840299 +- 1.4041347282977155 +- 2.489418130669714 +- 0.6406616147884645 +- 0.9161156331212068 +- 0.8140503497163128 +- 0.5760329884931071 +- 0.7199170640677455 +- 1.0438013061019016 +- 0.9561980696749098 +- 0.8032230156512296 +- 0.34991729988539466 +- 0.8483474542286771 +- 1.5719003409393562 +- 0.5929755534022305 +- 0.44157062246779805 +- 2.433719313440243 +- 2.7926460013901884 +- 4.268676007483616 +- 2.5665276771734553 +- 0.5801645263167452 +- 1.2599997086958452 +- 1.1413229382727756 +- 0.6454543373801486 +- 2.2959517865141574 +- 2.439174469246352 +- 3.5397534394067183 +- 3.7892554354076555 +- 4.111489281772583 +- 0.37314056522590067 +- 0.6099997086958442 +- 1.3309912500302656 +- 0.49264433679501873 +- 0.5817355510617088 +- 0.8816530590215 +- 0.39280987574049264 +- 0.4339669282771338 +- 0.5433884297520659 +- 0.6600825475267137 +- 0.4216528648187301 +- 2.0964459064578214 +- 0.9085948471195443 +- 0.8198351962507266 +- 0.8413227995565115 +- 0.3826451136060988 +- 0.6302481280870668 +- 0.8128102641460329 +- 2.170496172944375 +- 0.8280999364931718 +- 0.689668935980679 +- 0.5541314684655055 +- 0.9476044710017444 +- 4.244216401911966 +- 0.929422652819925 +- 1.270082394938824 +- 3.1598348633316933 +metric: crps +mean_score: 2.2218057260543205 +ran_at: '2026-07-01T10:44:37.760772' +skipped_origins: 0 diff --git a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py index 1d1d4df3..b7d1027e 100644 --- a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py +++ b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py @@ -97,7 +97,16 @@ def _build_starter_instruction() -> str: policy; notable supply-disruption signals; and published analyst price targets. Ground every claim in the search results you actually retrieve. When a cutoff -date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it.\ +date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it. + +Before finalizing your summary, reason step by step: (1) for each candidate \ +fact, judge its actual recency from the substance of the result itself, \ +never from a source's claimed publish date or byline timestamp — those are \ +frequently stale or updated after original publication; (2) discard \ +anything you cannot confidently place before the cutoff date; (3) only then \ +write your summary. Do not supplement the search results with your own \ +background/training knowledge — if the results are insufficient, say so \ +explicitly rather than filling gaps from memory.\ """ diff --git a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md index dd7f6a8b..2e15bf54 100644 --- a/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md +++ b/implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md @@ -17,6 +17,12 @@ Always pass `cutoff_date` equal to the `as_of` date in your payload. It is the temporal fence that keeps post-origin information out of a historical forecast. A forecast that "knew" what happened after `as_of` is not a forecast. +`search_web` runs an independent verifier on every result and returns +`[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]` instead of content it couldn't confirm as +pre-cutoff. Treat that as no verified news for the query — proceed on your +other signals and say so, never filling the gap from your own background +knowledge. + ## How to search - **Search before you forecast, not after.** Gather context first, then reason. diff --git a/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py b/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py index 94e73697..63eee7c5 100644 --- a/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py +++ b/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py @@ -136,7 +136,16 @@ def _build_starter_instruction() -> str: disruptions; and the CAD exchange rate. Ground every claim in the search results you actually retrieve. When a cutoff -date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it.\ +date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it. + +Before finalizing your summary, reason step by step: (1) for each candidate \ +fact, judge its actual recency from the substance of the result itself, \ +never from a source's claimed publish date or byline timestamp — those are \ +frequently stale or updated after original publication; (2) discard \ +anything you cannot confidently place before the cutoff date; (3) only then \ +write your summary. Do not supplement the search results with your own \ +background/training knowledge — if the results are insufficient, say so \ +explicitly rather than filling gaps from memory.\ """ diff --git a/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md b/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md index 45224744..ec020b56 100644 --- a/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md +++ b/implementations/food_price_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md @@ -17,6 +17,12 @@ Always pass `cutoff_date` equal to the `as_of` date in your payload. It is the temporal fence that keeps post-origin information out of a historical forecast. A forecast that "knew" what happened after `as_of` is not a forecast. +`search_web` runs an independent verifier on every result and returns +`[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]` instead of content it couldn't confirm as +pre-cutoff. Treat that as no verified news for the query — proceed on your +other signals and say so, never filling the gap from your own background +knowledge. + ## How to search - **Search before you forecast, not after.** Gather context first, then reason. diff --git a/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py b/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py index ec20ca47..b02e5b3d 100644 --- a/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py +++ b/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/agent.py @@ -150,7 +150,16 @@ def _build_starter_instruction() -> str: policy shocks. Ground every claim in the search results you actually retrieve. When a cutoff -date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it.\ +date is specified, never report or speculate about events after it. + +Before finalizing your summary, reason step by step: (1) for each candidate \ +fact, judge its actual recency from the substance of the result itself, \ +never from a source's claimed publish date or byline timestamp — those are \ +frequently stale or updated after original publication; (2) discard \ +anything you cannot confidently place before the cutoff date; (3) only then \ +write your summary. Do not supplement the search results with your own \ +background/training knowledge — if the results are insufficient, say so \ +explicitly rather than filling gaps from memory.\ """ diff --git a/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md b/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md index d7b7baa4..50215fa7 100644 --- a/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md +++ b/implementations/sp500_forecasting/starter_agent/skills/research-playbook/SKILL.md @@ -17,6 +17,12 @@ Always pass `cutoff_date` equal to the `as_of` date in your payload. It is the temporal fence that keeps post-origin information out of a historical forecast. A forecast that "knew" what happened after `as_of` is not a forecast. +`search_web` runs an independent verifier on every result and returns +`[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED]` instead of content it couldn't confirm as +pre-cutoff. Treat that as no verified news for the query — proceed on your +other signals and say so, never filling the gap from your own background +knowledge. + ## How to search - **Search before you forecast, not after.** Gather context first, then reason.