Delphi_R2_Qual_Graphs/3.1_severity.html at master · MIT-FutureTech/Delphi_R2_Qual_Graphs · GitHub

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    <title>3.1 Pollution of information ecosystem and loss of consensus reality - Both Scenarios</title>
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        <h1>3.1 Pollution of information ecosystem and loss of consensus reality - Both Scenarios</h1>

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                        <p class="summary-text"><strong>AI-Generated Summary of Expert Comments:</strong> Main harms identified include erosion of public trust, echo chambers, political violence, wars, trade conflicts, market manipulation through fabricated content, and dissolution of coordination mechanisms needed for functioning markets, democracies, and international law, with existing precedents like 2013 market manipulation cases now amplified by AI-generated fake research and bot swarms. Under Business as Usual, experts expect substantial to catastrophic harm as divergent worldviews fuel conflicts already causing millions of deaths annually and hundreds of billions in economic costs through trade wars and geopolitical tensions, with some arguing existing impacts from Ukraine, COVID disagreements, and attention economy dynamics already approach or exceed catastrophic thresholds. Under Pragmatic Mitigations, AI literacy and collaborative governance can reduce misinformation risks and lower probability of severe harm. However, multiple experts emphasize mitigation efforts cannot eliminate root causes like algorithmic opacity and economic incentives, with some arguing there are no realistic incentives for states or companies to mitigate harms that actively keep governments in power and fuel profitable attention economies, leaving residual substantial to severe harm.</p>

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                            <summary class="quote-toggle">See all expert comments (8)</summary>
                            <ul class="quote-list">
                                <li>"Mitigation efforts may delay or soften the trajectory of consensus erosion, but they do not eliminate root causes like algorithmic opacity, economic incentives, and lack of coordinated governance. Severe harm remains likely."</li>
                                <li>"We can significantly reduce the severity and likelihood of the harms if we act now, but will not be able to eliminate it as harm has already started to occur."</li>
                                <li>"Under the Business as Usual scenario: highest probabilities to Substantial (35%) and Severe (30%) because of echo chambers, and erosion of public trust.
Under the Pragmatic Mitigations scenario: lower probabilities to Substantial (20%) and Severe (15%) harm because improved AI literacy and collaborative governance can reduce misinformation risks."</li>
                                <li>"I think loss of consensus reality can have down stream high-impact consequences. For instance it could lead to wars. This makes me rate the consequence highly."</li>
                                <li>"Divergent worldviews and goals are the foundational elements for conflict.  The total economic cost of disagreement is incalculable, but certainly the number of deaths from differing opinions is in the millions globally each year.  As opinions grow more polarised we've already seen the normalisation of political violence around most of the world. From beatings and assassinations, through into intra and inter state conflict.  With geopolitical actors like china, russia and the US putting our AI generated media to promote disputed narratives and sew misinformation and distrust, there seems to be no realistic way to keep the economic or physical impacts of a lack of consensus reality under the the thresholds for catastrophic impact.   If anything, to measure things like the trade war and geopolitical conflict over AI and chips, we may need a higher category of impact than catastrophic.  $10T sounds like a lot now, but may just be the cost of training a model in 5 years.  Ukraine has probably cost a trillion, trade wars are hundreds of billions, differences of opinions during covid resulted in millions of potential deaths.  This scale can go a lot higher.

 Without consensus reality, you can't have functioning markets, democracies, or international law. The cost isn't just economic, it's the dissolution of the coordination mechanisms that prevent species-level catastrophes.   Thats a hell of a thing to play around with to make the line go up."</li>
                                <li>"These harms are actively keeping fascist governments in power and mongering war and genocide. Not to mention the attention economy is SO profitable to keep influence our buying behaviors. There is no realistic chance that states will build sufficient incentives to prevent the very things that fuels them in the near term. So why would companies mitigate for these harms, even if it is feasible"</li>
                                <li>"Justification for allocating “Severe” and “Catastrophic” impact

Severe. Single-issuer manipulation can erase hundreds of millions within minutes. Precedent already exists without modern AI: in 2013 a Scottish trader used spoofed Twitter handles to mimic short sellers, Muddy Waters and Citron; false “under investigation” tweets drove Audience −28% with a trading halt and Sarepta −16% before recovery (SEC Press Release 2015-254). Generative tools now lower the cost to craft credible impersonations, auto-generate fake research and screenshots, translate at scale, and coordinate bot swarms. Expect more frequent and sharper single-name shocks.

Catastrophic. Coordinated or opportunistic campaigns during stressed conditions can cascade. AI can fabricate regulator or CEO notices, fake earnings PDFs, and cloned voices; botnets can seed aggregators; some algos and retail tools can ingest the noise before human review. Rapid spikes then trigger margin calls, ETF basket selling, and cross-asset de-risking, which can impair price discovery despite circuit breakers and surveillance. The 2013 case shows plausibility; AI mainly adds scale, speed, and credibility, making market-wide losses easy to foresee."</li>
                                <li>"Pollution of Informatiioon ecosystem unchecked. could lead to catastrophic  outcomes for societies. Even if addressed pragmatically regulations and enforcement are needed to mitigate some residual harm."</li>
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                    <h3 class="criteria-header">Other</h3>
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                        <p class="summary-text"><strong>AI-Generated Summary of Expert Comments:</strong> [NO EXPERT COMMENTS PROVIDED]</p>
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